Our verdict
Bayer Leverkusen to win
Bet365 1.40
Win probability
Betting markets
Expected goals 2.28 – 1.11Half time / full time result. 1 = Bayer Leverkusen, X = draw, 2 = Marseille.
Asian handicap applied to Bayer Leverkusen.
Market percentages come from our model's expected goals for each side. Fair odds are 100 ÷ probability.
Model comparison
Last matches
Newest first
Bayer Leverkusen4W 0D 2L · last 6
Marseille3W 0D 2L · last 5Europa League table
| # | Team | P | +/- | Pts | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Benfica | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +8 | 9 | WWW |
| 2 | Bayer Leverkusen | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +8 | 9 | WWW |
| 3 | Bournemouth | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +7 | 9 | WWW |
| 4 | Ferencvarosi TC | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +6 | 9 | WWW |
| 5 | Olympiakos Piraeus | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +3 | 9 | WWW |
| 6 | Union St. Gilloise | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +7 | 7 | WDW |
| 7 | Juventus | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +6 | 7 | DWW |
| 8 | Beşiktaş | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +4 | 7 | DWW |
| 9 | Sunderland | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 7 | DWW |
| 10 | AZ Alkmaar | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +4 | 6 | WWL |
| 11 | Omonia Nicosia | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 6 | LWW |
| 12 | Lyon | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 6 | LWW |
| 13 | Rennes | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 5 | DWD |
| 14 | Real Sociedad | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +5 | 4 | WDL |
| 15 | Crystal Palace | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +3 | 4 | DLW |
| 16 | Sparta Praha | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +2 | 4 | LDW |
| 17 | Levski Sofia | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | WDL |
| 18 | Dinamo Zagreb | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 4 | LWD |
| 19 | Sturm Graz | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 4 | WLD |
| 20 | NEC Nijmegen | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -3 | 4 | WDL |
| 21 | Red Bull Salzburg | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -3 | 4 | DLW |
| 22 | Anderlecht | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 3 | WLL |
| 23 | 1899 Hoffenheim | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 | WLL |
| 24 | AC Milan | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 3 | LWL |
| 25 | Celta Vigo | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 3 | WLL |
| 26 | OFI | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 3 | LLW |
| 27 | Jagiellonia | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 3 | LWL |
| 28 | Torreense | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -3 | 3 | LLW |
| 29 | Celje | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -5 | 1 | DLL |
| 30 | Hapoel Beer Sheva | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -5 | 1 | LLD |
| 31 | Lillestrom | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -7 | 1 | LDL |
| 32 | Lech Poznan | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -8 | 1 | DLL |
| 33 | Plzen | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -5 | 0 | LLL |
| 34 | Marseille | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -5 | 0 | LLL |
| 35 | Celtic | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -6 | 0 | LLL |
| 36 | Ararat-Armenia | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -9 | 0 | LLL |
Top scorers
| # | Player | M | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  L. DionyOmonia Nicosia | 7 | 4 |
| 2 |  A. CissèAC Milan | 3 | 3 |
| 3 |  Yeremy PinoCrystal Palace | 3 | 3 |
| 4 |  Sergio GómezReal Sociedad | 3 | 3 |
| 5 |  K. ZachariassenFerencvarosi TC | 11 | 3 |
Season statistics
This season, all competitions we cover| Stat | Bayer Leverkusen | Marseille |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 6 | 5 |
| Wins | 4 | 3 |
| Draws | 0 | 0 |
| Losses | 2 | 2 |
| Goals for (avg) | 2.5 | 2.2 |
| Goals against (avg) | 1.7 | 1.4 |
| Clean sheets | 2 | 1 |
| Failed to score | 1 | 2 |
| Best win streak | 3 | 2 |
Recent goal lines
How many of each team's last 6 games went over the line
| Over 1.5 | 6/6 | 3/5 |
|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 | 5/6 | 2/5 |
| Over 3.5 | 3/6 | 2/5 |
| BTTS – yes | 3/6 | 2/5 |
Match preview
Bayer Leverkusen host Marseille in the Europa League (League Stage - 4) at BayArena, Bayer Leverkusen, with kick-off on Thursday, 5 November 2026 at 21:00 WAT.
Our prediction model makes Bayer Leverkusen favourites, giving Bayer Leverkusen a 63% chance of winning, 20% for the draw and 17% for Marseille. Our tip is: Bayer Leverkusen to win.
Bayer Leverkusen have taken 9 points from their last 5 games (3W 0D 2L). Marseille have taken 9 points from their last 5 games (3W 0D 2L).
On the goals markets, we expect goals, with a 66% chance of over 2.5 and a 61% chance that both teams score.
- Competition
- Europe Europa League
- Date
- Thursday, 5 November 2026, 21:00 WAT
- Venue
- BayArena, Bayer Leverkusen
TodaysPrediction analysis team
Model-based football predictions. How our predictions work
Quick answers
When is Bayer Leverkusen vs Marseille?
Bayer Leverkusen vs Marseille kicks off on Thursday, 5 November 2026 at 21:00 West Africa Time.
Which competition is Bayer Leverkusen vs Marseille in?
The match is in the Europe Europa League.
Where are Bayer Leverkusen and Marseille in the table?
Bayer Leverkusen are 2nd and Marseille are 34th in the Europa League.
Who will win Bayer Leverkusen vs Marseille?
Our prediction is Bayer Leverkusen to win. Win probabilities: Bayer Leverkusen 63%, draw 20%, Marseille 17%.
Will both teams score in Bayer Leverkusen vs Marseille?
We estimate a 61% chance that both teams score, so our BTTS tip is Yes.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Bayer Leverkusen vs Marseille?
We estimate a 66% chance of three or more goals, so our tip is Over 2.5 goals.
Are these predictions guaranteed?
No. They are statistical estimates. A 70% tip should still lose about three times in ten, so only stake what you can afford to lose.
How often are predictions updated?
Predictions refresh automatically through the day as new data arrives, and every tip is marked right or wrong after full time.