What this odds checker does
Most odds checkers only list prices. This one tells you what the prices mean. It has two parts:
- The margin checker above: type the prices for every outcome of a market and it shows the bookmaker's margin, how much of every stake they pay back, the true chance of each outcome and the fair odds without the margin.
- Today's odds board below: for every match on today's and tomorrow's lists, the bookmaker's 1X2 prices next to the fair odds from our model, with the prices that pay more than our fair price picked out.
How bookmaker margin works
A bookmaker never offers fair odds. If they did, the implied chances of all the outcomes would add up to exactly 100%. Instead they add a little to each chance, so the total comes to more than 100%. That extra is the margin (also called overround or vig), and it's how bookmakers make money whatever the result.
Take a match priced 2.10 / 3.40 / 3.60:
| Outcome | Odds | Implied chance | True chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home (1) | 2.10 | 47.6% | 45.4% | 2.20 |
| Draw (X) | 3.40 | 29.4% | 28.1% | 3.56 |
| Away (2) | 3.60 | 27.8% | 26.5% | 3.77 |
| Total | 104.8% | 100% |
The implied chances add up to 104.8%, so the margin is 4.8%. Put another way, the bookmaker pays back about 95.4% of everything staked on this market over time. To get the true chances, each implied chance is divided by the total (47.6 ÷ 1.048 = 45.4%), and the fair odds are 100 divided by the true chance.
What counts as a good margin?
| Margin on a 1X2 market | What it means | Where you usually see it |
|---|---|---|
| Under 4% | Sharp pricing; you keep more of every win | Top leagues at the most competitive bookmakers |
| 4% to 7% | Average | Most leagues at most bookmakers |
| Over 7% | Expensive; shop around | Lower leagues, special markets and price boosts with tight terms |
A couple of points of margin sound small, but they add up. If you win exactly half your bets, odds of 2.00 leave you level; odds of 1.90 lose you 5% of everything you stake. Same bets, same results: the only difference is the price.
How to read today's odds board
Each row shows a match from today's or tomorrow's list, the bookmaker's prices for 1, X and 2, the margin on that market, and the fair odds from our own model. Where the bookmaker pays at least 3% more than our fair price, the price is highlighted.
A highlighted price is not a tip and not a promise. Our model starts from the bookmaker's own odds and adjusts them with each team's scoring record, so most of the time the two agree and the gaps are small. A gap only says the price looks generous by our numbers. Our actual tips, with their own rules, are on the predictions pages.
Getting better prices
- Compare before you bet. Use the margin checker on the same market at two or three bookmakers; the lower margin is the better deal.
- Check the fair odds. If a price is below the fair odds, the bookmaker is paying less than the outcome is worth.
- Watch special markets. Correct score, scorer and boosted markets often carry far higher margins than 1X2.
- Convert first. If two bookmakers show different formats, put both through the odds converter.
- Then work out the return. The odds calculator shows what the better price is worth on your stake.