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Marseille vs Toulouse prediction

Marseille vs Toulouse prediction for the Ligue 1 on 1 Nov 2026: Marseille or draw (74%). Probabilities, betting markets, form, H2H and stats.

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Sunday1November 2026
Yesterday: 52/66 correct(79%)
Ligue 1 · Regular Season - 9
MarseilleToulouse
2 - 0Full time · Sun 1 NovHT 2-0
Orange Vélodrome, Marseille

Match events

MarseilleToulouse
  1. Goal: Amine HaritAssist: Amine Gouiri1'
  2. Substitution: Emerson PalmieriOff: Ulisses Garcia19'
  3. Goal: Amine GouiriAssist: Igor Paixão25'
  4. Yellow card: Pierre-Emile HøjbjergFoul44'
  5. 45'Substitution: Aron DønnumOff: Sion Oppong

HT 2-0

  1. 57'Substitution: Jacen Russell-RoweOff: Santiago Hidalgo
  2. 67'Substitution: Ismaïl DialloOff: Niklas Schmidt
  3. 68'VARVAR: Casper TengstedtGoal cancelled
  4. Substitution: Amine HaritOff: Kelyann Bezahaf73'
  5. Substitution: Himad AbdelliOff: Geoffrey Kondogbia73'
  6. Yellow card: CJ Egan-RileyDissent78'
  7. 86'Yellow card: Santiago HidalgoFoul
  8. Substitution: Amine GouiriOff: Neal Maupay87'
  9. Substitution: Tochukwu NnadiOff: Angel Gomes87'
  10. 89'Substitution: Niko SigurOff: Julián Vignolo
  11. 89'Substitution: Rasmus NicolaisenOff: Seny Koumbassa

Our verdict

1X ✓

Marseille or draw

Bet365 1.28

74%

✓ This tip was correct · final score 2-0

Expected goals3.3

Win probability

1 · Marseille50%
Fair odds 2.00
X · Draw24%
Fair odds 4.17
2 · Toulouse26%
Fair odds 3.85

Match statistics

  • 43%Possession57%
  • 1.12Expected goals (xG)1.60
  • 13Total shots14
  • 3Shots on target7
  • 6Shots off target4
  • 4Blocked shots3
  • 7Shots inside the box10
  • 4Corners3
  • 1Offsides4
  • 14Fouls14
  • 2Yellow cards1
  • 0Red cards0
  • 6Goalkeeper saves1
  • 478Passes610
  • 400Accurate passes516

Line-ups

Marseille

4-1-4-1

Starting XI

  1. 1J. de LangeG
  2. 22T. WeahD
  3. 4C. Egan-RileyD
  4. 21N. AguerdD
  5. 33EmersonD
  6. 23P. HøjbjergM
  7. 77A. HaritM
  8. 8H. AbdelliM
  9. 6T. NnadiM
  10. 14Igor PaixãoM
  11. 9A. GouiriF

Substitutes

  1. 92T. VermotG
  2. 74K. BezahafD
  3. 7A. GomesM
  4. 25U. GarciaD
  5. 42Nouhoum KamissokoM
  6. 19G. KondogbiaM
  7. 18B. MeitéD
  8. 11N. MaupayF
  9. 43T. MmadiF

Coach: Bruno Genesio

Toulouse

4-4-2

Starting XI

  1. 16G. RestesG
  2. 94I. DialloD
  3. 3M. McKenzieD
  4. 2R. NicolaisenD
  5. 12C. TapéD
  6. 8T. JørgensenM
  7. 14N. SigurM
  8. 23C. CásseresM
  9. 15A. DønnumM
  10. 13J. Russell-RoweF
  11. 20C. TengstedtF

Substitutes

  1. 5S. KoumbassaD
  2. 9S. HidalgoF
  3. 1T. CollinG
  4. 37Y. AziziF
  5. 18M. AmougouM
  6. 11S. OppongF
  7. 31N. SchmidtM
  8. 6A. VossahM
  9. 7Julián VignoloF

Coach: Jens Berthel Askou

Betting markets

Expected goals 1.92 – 1.35
0.5 goalsOver96.2%Under3.8%
1.5 goalsOver83.8%Under16.2%
2.5 goalsOver63.5%Under36.5%
3.5 goalsOver41.3%Under58.7%
4.5 goalsOver23.2%Under76.8%

Market percentages come from our model's expected goals for each side. Fair odds are 100 ÷ probability.

Model comparison

MarseilleToulouse
60%Form40%
61%Attack39%
10%Defence90%
50%Head to head50%
59%Expected goals41%
66%Overall34%

Last matches

Newest first
Marseille2W 0D 2L · last 4
WMarseille vs Le Havre25 Oct 2026 · Ligue 14-3LSturm Graz vs Marseille22 Oct 2026 · Europa League1-0WAngers vs Marseille18 Oct 2026 · Ligue 12-5LMarseille vs Olympiakos Piraeus15 Oct 2026 · Europa League0-1
Toulouse1W 1D 0L · last 2
DToulouse vs Estac Troyes25 Oct 2026 · Ligue 10-0WLe Mans vs Toulouse16 Oct 2026 · Ligue 10-3

Ligue 1 table

Ligue 1 table
#TeamP+/-Pts
1Paris Saint Germain9+1120
2Lille9+618
3Lyon9+817
4Paris FC9+617
5Rennes9+116
6Marseille9+715
7Monaco9+215
8Nice9+114
9Lens9+313
10Lorient8+112
11Toulouse9-110
12Strasbourg9-210
13Auxerre9-1010
14Stade Brestois 298+29
15Angers9-88
16Estac Troyes9-98
17Le Mans9-77
18Le Havre9-112
See full table ›

Top scorers

Ligue 1 top scorers
#PlayerMGoals
1E. LepaulRennes77
2E. WahiNice86
3L. SinayokoParis FC86
4C. ArcherAuxerre65
5A. GouiriMarseille85

Season statistics

This season, all competitions we cover
StatMarseilleToulouse
Played42
Wins21
Draws01
Losses20
Goals for (avg)2.31.5
Goals against (avg)1.80
Clean sheets02
Failed to score21
Best win streak11

Recent goal lines

How many of each team's last 4 games went over the line

Over 1.52/41/2
Over 2.52/41/2
Over 3.52/40/2
BTTS – yes2/40/2

Match preview

Marseille host Toulouse in the Ligue 1 (Regular Season - 9) at Orange Vélodrome, Marseille, with kick-off on Sunday, 1 November 2026 at 20:45 WAT.

Our prediction model makes Marseille favourites, giving Marseille a 50% chance of winning, 24% for the draw and 26% for Toulouse. Our tip is: Marseille or draw.

Marseille have taken 6 points from their last 4 games (2W 0D 2L). Toulouse have taken 4 points from their last 2 games (1W 1D 0L).

On the goals markets, we expect goals, with a 63% chance of over 2.5 and a 64% chance that both teams score.

Competition
France Ligue 1
Date
Sunday, 1 November 2026, 20:45 WAT
Venue
Orange Vélodrome, Marseille

TodaysPrediction analysis team

Model-based football predictions. How our predictions work

Quick answers

When is Marseille vs Toulouse?

Marseille vs Toulouse kicks off on Sunday, 1 November 2026 at 20:45 West Africa Time.

Which competition is Marseille vs Toulouse in?

The match is in the France Ligue 1.

Where are Marseille and Toulouse in the table?

Marseille are 6th and Toulouse are 11th in the Ligue 1.

Who will win Marseille vs Toulouse?

Our prediction is Marseille or draw. Win probabilities: Marseille 50%, draw 24%, Toulouse 26%.

Will both teams score in Marseille vs Toulouse?

We estimate a 64% chance that both teams score, so our BTTS tip is Yes.

Will there be over 2.5 goals in Marseille vs Toulouse?

We estimate a 63% chance of three or more goals, so our tip is Over 2.5 goals.

Are these predictions guaranteed?

No. They are statistical estimates. A 70% tip should still lose about three times in ten, so only stake what you can afford to lose.

How often are predictions updated?

Predictions refresh automatically through the day as new data arrives, and every tip is marked right or wrong after full time.

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