Ligue 1 · Regular Season - 8
Match events
Le Havre- Goal: CJ Egan-RileyAssist: Emerson Palmieri5'
- Goal: Timothy Weah33'
HT 2-0
- Goal: Igor PaixãoAssist: Amine Gouiri50'
- Goal: Himad Abdelli55'
- 61'Substitution: Rassoul NdiayeOff: Josh Maja
- 61'Substitution: Mbwana Ally SamattaOff: Sota Nakamura
- 77'Substitution: Amir RichardsonOff: Daren Mosengo
- 77'Substitution: Enzo KoffiOff: Lamine N'Diaye
- 77'Penalty goal: Josh Maja (pen)
- Substitution: Amine HaritOff: Keyliane Abdallah78'
- Substitution: Amine GouiriOff: Neal Maupay78'
- 83'Yellow card: Simon Ebonog
- Substitution: Himad AbdelliOff: Nouhoum Kamissoko84'
- Substitution: Pierre-Emile HøjbjergOff: Angel Gomes84'
- 84'Substitution: Rayan FofanaOff: Kaito Mizuta
- 86'Goal: Lamine N'Diaye
- 89'Goal: Josh MajaAssist: Kaito Mizuta
- Substitution: Ulisses GarciaOff: Igor Paixão90+2'
- 90+6'VARVAR: Kaito MizutaPenalty cancelled
- 90+10'Yellow card: Ayumu SekoDissent
- 90+11'Yellow card: Lamine N'DiayeDissent
- Yellow card: Neal MaupayTime Wasting90+12'
Our verdict
Marseille to win
Bet365 1.57
✓ This tip was correct · final score 4-3
Win probability
Match statistics
- 53%Possession47%
- 1.63Expected goals (xG)3.04
- 11Total shots21
- 5Shots on target7
- 4Shots off target10
- 2Blocked shots4
- 7Shots inside the box13
- 4Corners3
- 3Offsides1
- 15Fouls11
- 1Yellow cards3
- 0Red cards0
- 3Goalkeeper saves1
- 481Passes412
- 418Accurate passes339
Line-ups
Marseille
Starting XI
- 8H. AbdelliM
- 1J. de LangeG
- 14Igor PaixãoF
- 6T. NnadiM
- 23P. HøjbjergM
- 77A. HaritM
- 9A. GouiriF
- 33EmersonD
- 4C. Egan-RileyD
- 21N. AguerdD
- 22T. WeahM
Substitutes
- 48K. AbdallahF
- 74K. BezahafD
- 25U. GarciaD
- 7A. GomesM
- 42Nouhoum KamissokoM
- 19G. KondogbiaM
- 11N. MaupayF
- 18B. MeitéD
- 92T. VermotG
Coach: Bruno Genesio
Le Havre
Starting XI
- 93G. GallonG
- 26S. EbonogM
- 38R. FofanaF
- 6J. MwangaM
- 14R. NdiayeM
- 20D. OuziadF
- 7A. RichardsonM
- 25M. SamattaF
- 15A. SekoD
- 27E. Koffi VinetteF
- 5A. ToubaD
Substitutes
- 33Hakim DongopandjiF
- 9J. MajaF
- 17K. MizutaF
- 78D. MosengoM
- 97Mouhamed N'DiayeM
- 30S. NakamuraF
- 23V. SassoD
- 24G. ZohouriM
- 16A. BodartG
Coach: D. Digard
Betting markets
Expected goals 2.09 – 1.07Half time / full time result. 1 = Marseille, X = draw, 2 = Le Havre.
Asian handicap applied to Marseille.
Market percentages come from our model's expected goals for each side. Fair odds are 100 ÷ probability.
Model comparison
Last matches
Newest firstLigue 1 table
| # | Team | P | +/- | Pts | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Paris Saint Germain | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | +11 | 20 | WWWWW |
| 2 | Lille | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | +6 | 18 | WDDWL |
| 3 | Rennes | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | +1 | 16 | LWLWL |
| 4 | Monaco | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | +4 | 15 | DLDWD |
| 5 | Lyon | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | +6 | 14 | LWLWD |
| 6 | Paris FC | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | +4 | 14 | LWLWD |
| 7 | Nice | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | +1 | 14 | WWLWW |
| 8 | Lens | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | +3 | 13 | LWWWL |
| 9 | Marseille | 8 | 4 | 0 | 4 | +5 | 12 | WWWLL |
| 10 | Lorient | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | +1 | 12 | DWWLD |
| 11 | Toulouse | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | +1 | 10 | DWDWD |
| 12 | Auxerre | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -6 | 10 | DWLWW |
| 13 | Stade Brestois 29 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | +2 | 9 | LDWLL |
| 14 | Angers | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -6 | 8 | DLLWD |
| 15 | Le Mans | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | -5 | 7 | DLLWD |
| 16 | Strasbourg | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -6 | 7 | LLLLD |
| 17 | Estac Troyes | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -11 | 5 | DLLLL |
| 18 | Le Havre | 9 | 0 | 2 | 7 | -11 | 2 | LLLLL |
Top scorers
| # | Player | M | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  E. LepaulRennes | 7 | 7 |
| 2 |  L. SinayokoParis FC | 8 | 6 |
| 3 |  C. ArcherAuxerre | 6 | 5 |
| 4 |  A. GouiriMarseille | 8 | 5 |
| 5 |  C. TengstedtToulouse | 6 | 5 |
Season statistics
This season, all competitions we cover| Stat | Marseille | Le Havre |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 3 | 1 |
| Wins | 1 | 0 |
| Draws | 0 | 0 |
| Losses | 2 | 1 |
| Goals for (avg) | 1.7 | 1 |
| Goals against (avg) | 1.3 | 3 |
| Clean sheets | 0 | 0 |
| Failed to score | 2 | 0 |
| Best win streak | 1 | 0 |
Recent goal lines
How many of each team's last 3 games went over the line
| Over 1.5 | 1/3 | 1/1 |
|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 | 1/3 | 1/1 |
| Over 3.5 | 1/3 | 1/1 |
| BTTS – yes | 1/3 | 1/1 |
Match preview
Marseille host Le Havre in the Ligue 1 (Regular Season - 8) at Orange Vélodrome, Marseille, with kick-off on Sunday, 25 October 2026 at 17:15 WAT.
Our prediction model makes Marseille favourites, giving Marseille a 60% chance of winning, 22% for the draw and 18% for Le Havre. Our tip is: Marseille to win.
Marseille have taken 3 points from their last 3 games (1W 0D 2L). Le Havre have taken 0 points from their last 1 games (0W 0D 1L).
On the goals markets, we expect goals, with a 61% chance of over 2.5 and a 58% chance that both teams score.
- Competition
- France Ligue 1
- Date
- Sunday, 25 October 2026, 17:15 WAT
- Venue
- Orange Vélodrome, Marseille
TodaysPrediction analysis team
Model-based football predictions. How our predictions work
Quick answers
When is Marseille vs Le Havre?
Marseille vs Le Havre kicks off on Sunday, 25 October 2026 at 17:15 West Africa Time.
Which competition is Marseille vs Le Havre in?
The match is in the France Ligue 1.
Where are Marseille and Le Havre in the table?
Marseille are 9th and Le Havre are 18th in the Ligue 1.
Who will win Marseille vs Le Havre?
Our prediction is Marseille to win. Win probabilities: Marseille 60%, draw 22%, Le Havre 18%.
Will both teams score in Marseille vs Le Havre?
We estimate a 58% chance that both teams score, so our BTTS tip is Yes.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Marseille vs Le Havre?
We estimate a 61% chance of three or more goals, so our tip is Over 2.5 goals.
Are these predictions guaranteed?
No. They are statistical estimates. A 70% tip should still lose about three times in ten, so only stake what you can afford to lose.
How often are predictions updated?
Predictions refresh automatically through the day as new data arrives, and every tip is marked right or wrong after full time.