Our verdict
Over 2.5
Bet365 1.33
Win probability
Betting markets
Expected goals 2.74 – 0.87Half time / full time result. 1 = Benfica, X = draw, 2 = Lech Poznan.
Asian handicap applied to Benfica.
Market percentages come from our model's expected goals for each side. Fair odds are 100 ÷ probability.
Model comparison
Last matches
Newest first
Benfica4W 0D 0L · last 4
Lech Poznan2W 1D 1L · last 4Europa League table
| # | Team | P | +/- | Pts | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Benfica | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +8 | 9 | WWW |
| 2 | Bayer Leverkusen | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +8 | 9 | WWW |
| 3 | Bournemouth | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +7 | 9 | WWW |
| 4 | Ferencvarosi TC | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +6 | 9 | WWW |
| 5 | Olympiakos Piraeus | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +3 | 9 | WWW |
| 6 | Union St. Gilloise | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +7 | 7 | WDW |
| 7 | Juventus | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +6 | 7 | DWW |
| 8 | Beşiktaş | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +4 | 7 | DWW |
| 9 | Sunderland | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 7 | DWW |
| 10 | AZ Alkmaar | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +4 | 6 | WWL |
| 11 | Omonia Nicosia | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 6 | LWW |
| 12 | Lyon | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 6 | LWW |
| 13 | Rennes | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 5 | DWD |
| 14 | Real Sociedad | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +5 | 4 | WDL |
| 15 | Crystal Palace | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +3 | 4 | DLW |
| 16 | Sparta Praha | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +2 | 4 | LDW |
| 17 | Levski Sofia | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | WDL |
| 18 | Dinamo Zagreb | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 4 | LWD |
| 19 | Sturm Graz | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 4 | WLD |
| 20 | NEC Nijmegen | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -3 | 4 | WDL |
| 21 | Red Bull Salzburg | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -3 | 4 | DLW |
| 22 | Anderlecht | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 3 | WLL |
| 23 | 1899 Hoffenheim | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 | WLL |
| 24 | AC Milan | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 3 | LWL |
| 25 | Celta Vigo | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 3 | WLL |
| 26 | OFI | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 3 | LLW |
| 27 | Jagiellonia | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 3 | LWL |
| 28 | Torreense | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -3 | 3 | LLW |
| 29 | Celje | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -5 | 1 | DLL |
| 30 | Hapoel Beer Sheva | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -5 | 1 | LLD |
| 31 | Lillestrom | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -7 | 1 | LDL |
| 32 | Lech Poznan | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -8 | 1 | DLL |
| 33 | Plzen | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -5 | 0 | LLL |
| 34 | Marseille | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -5 | 0 | LLL |
| 35 | Celtic | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -6 | 0 | LLL |
| 36 | Ararat-Armenia | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -9 | 0 | LLL |
Top scorers
| # | Player | M | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  L. DionyOmonia Nicosia | 7 | 4 |
| 2 |  A. CissèAC Milan | 3 | 3 |
| 3 |  Yeremy PinoCrystal Palace | 3 | 3 |
| 4 |  Sergio GómezReal Sociedad | 3 | 3 |
| 5 |  K. ZachariassenFerencvarosi TC | 11 | 3 |
Season statistics
This season, all competitions we cover| Stat | Benfica | Lech Poznan |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 4 | 4 |
| Wins | 4 | 2 |
| Draws | 0 | 1 |
| Losses | 0 | 1 |
| Goals for (avg) | 2.8 | 2.3 |
| Goals against (avg) | 0.8 | 1.8 |
| Clean sheets | 1 | 0 |
| Failed to score | 0 | 1 |
| Best win streak | 4 | 1 |
Recent goal lines
How many of each team's last 4 games went over the line
| Over 1.5 | 3/4 | 4/4 |
|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 | 3/4 | 3/4 |
| Over 3.5 | 2/4 | 2/4 |
| BTTS – yes | 3/4 | 3/4 |
Match preview
Benfica host Lech Poznan in the Europa League (League Stage - 4) at Estádio da Luz, Lisbon, with kick-off on Thursday, 5 November 2026 at 21:00 WAT.
Our prediction model makes Benfica clear favourites, giving Benfica a 76% chance of winning, 15% for the draw and 9% for Lech Poznan. Our tip is: Over 2.5.
Benfica have taken 12 points from their last 4 games (4W 0D 0L). Lech Poznan have taken 7 points from their last 4 games (2W 1D 1L).
On the goals markets, we expect goals, with a 70% chance of over 2.5 and a 55% chance that both teams score.
- Competition
- Europe Europa League
- Date
- Thursday, 5 November 2026, 21:00 WAT
- Venue
- Estádio da Luz, Lisbon
TodaysPrediction analysis team
Model-based football predictions. How our predictions work
Quick answers
When is Benfica vs Lech Poznan?
Benfica vs Lech Poznan kicks off on Thursday, 5 November 2026 at 21:00 West Africa Time.
Which competition is Benfica vs Lech Poznan in?
The match is in the Europe Europa League.
Where are Benfica and Lech Poznan in the table?
Benfica are 1st and Lech Poznan are 32nd in the Europa League.
Who will win Benfica vs Lech Poznan?
Our prediction is Over 2.5. Win probabilities: Benfica 76%, draw 15%, Lech Poznan 9%.
Will both teams score in Benfica vs Lech Poznan?
We estimate a 55% chance that both teams score, so our BTTS tip is Yes.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Benfica vs Lech Poznan?
We estimate a 70% chance of three or more goals, so our tip is Over 2.5 goals.
Are these predictions guaranteed?
No. They are statistical estimates. A 70% tip should still lose about three times in ten, so only stake what you can afford to lose.
How often are predictions updated?
Predictions refresh automatically through the day as new data arrives, and every tip is marked right or wrong after full time.