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Lech Poznan vs Bayer Leverkusen prediction

Lech Poznan vs Bayer Leverkusen prediction for the Europa League on 15 Oct 2026: Bayer Leverkusen to win (55%). Probabilities, betting markets, form, H2H and stats.

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Thursday15October 2026
Yesterday: 52/66 correct(79%)
Europa League · League Stage - 2
Lech PoznanNo recent gamesBayer LeverkusenNo recent games
0 - 4Full time · Thu 15 OctHT 0-3
Stadion Miejski, Poznan

Match events

Lech PoznanBayer Leverkusen
  1. Substitution: Wojciech MonkaOff: Terry Yegbe15'
  2. 18'Substitution: Martin TerrierOff: Patrik Schick
  3. 25'VARVAR: Ibrahim MazaPenalty confirmed
  4. 29'Penalty goal: Patrik Schick (pen)
  5. 32'Goal: Malik Tillman
  6. 38'VARVAR: Patrik SchickPenalty confirmed
  7. Yellow card: Mateusz SkrzypczakFoul40'
  8. 41'Penalty goal: Patrik Schick (pen)

HT 0-3

  1. Substitution: Patrick WalemarkOff: Daniel Håkans60'
  2. Substitution: Leo BengtssonOff: Filip Jagiełło60'
  3. Substitution: Mikael IshakOff: Y. Agnero60'
  4. 62'Substitution: Facundo MedinaOff: Miguel Gutiérrez
  5. 62'Substitution: Robert AndrichOff: Aleix García
  6. 62'Substitution: Nathan TellaOff: Moussa Diaby
  7. 68'Yellow card: Robert AndrichFoul
  8. Substitution: Gustav BerggrenOff: Pablo Rodriguez Delgado74'
  9. 76'Substitution: Patrik SchickOff: Afonso Moreira
  10. 80'Yellow card: Moussa DiabyFoul
  11. 88'Goal: Ibrahim MazaAssist: Afonso Moreira

Our verdict

2 ✓

Bayer Leverkusen to win

Bet365 1.55

55%

✓ This tip was correct · final score 0-4

Expected goals3.4

Win probability

1 · Lech Poznan23%
Fair odds 4.35
X · Draw22%
Fair odds 4.55
2 · Bayer Leverkusen55%
Fair odds 1.82

Match statistics

  • 39%Possession61%
  • 0.54Expected goals (xG)5.25
  • 10Total shots22
  • 3Shots on target10
  • 4Shots off target8
  • 3Blocked shots4
  • 3Shots inside the box18
  • 4Corners5
  • 1Offsides4
  • 5Fouls16
  • 1Yellow cards2
  • 0Red cards0
  • 7Goalkeeper saves3
  • 375Passes586
  • 296Accurate passes534

Line-ups

Lech Poznan

4-2-3-1

Starting XI

  1. 1M. LisG
  2. 2Joel PereiraD
  3. 72M. SkrzypczakD
  4. 27W. MońkaD
  5. 15M. GurgulD
  6. 5G. BerggrenM
  7. 43A. KozubalM
  8. 10P. WålemarkM
  9. 9M. IshakM
  10. 14L. BengtssonM
  11. 77L. PalmaF

Substitutes

  1. 59T. YegbeD
  2. 56W. SzymczakF
  3. 21Pablo RodríguezM
  4. 33M. PruchniewskiG
  5. 24F. JagiełłoM
  6. 11D. HåkansM
  7. 53K. DelikatM
  8. 7Y. AgneroF
  9. 55Piotr BartczakD

Coach: N. Frederiksen

Bayer Leverkusen

4-2-3-1

Starting XI

  1. 1M. FlekkenG
  2. 17Lucas VázquezD
  3. 5L. BadéD
  4. 12E. TapsobaD
  5. 3Miguel GutiérrezD
  6. 6E. FernándezM
  7. 24Aleix GarcíaM
  8. 23N. TellaM
  9. 10M. TillmanM
  10. 30I. MazaM
  11. 11M. TerrierF

Substitutes

  1. 14P. SchickF
  2. 4J. QuansahD
  3. 9Afonso MoreiraF
  4. 2F. MedinaD
  5. 36N. LombG
  6. 19M. DiabyF
  7. 28J. BlaswichG
  8. 8R. AndrichM

Coach: Carles Martínez

Betting markets

Expected goals 1.31 – 2.08
0.5 goalsOver96.6%Under3.4%
1.5 goalsOver85.2%Under14.8%
2.5 goalsOver65.8%Under34.2%
3.5 goalsOver43.9%Under56.1%
4.5 goalsOver25.4%Under74.6%

Market percentages come from our model's expected goals for each side. Fair odds are 100 ÷ probability.

Model comparison

Lech PoznanBayer Leverkusen
50%Form50%
50%Attack50%
50%Defence50%
50%Head to head50%
39%Expected goals61%
29%Overall71%

Last matches

Newest first
Lech Poznan0W 0D 0L · last 0

No finished matches yet.

Bayer Leverkusen0W 0D 0L · last 0

No finished matches yet.

Europa League table

Europa League table
#TeamP+/-Pts
1Benfica3+89
2Bayer Leverkusen3+89
3Bournemouth3+79
4Ferencvarosi TC3+69
5Olympiakos Piraeus3+39
6Union St. Gilloise3+77
7Juventus3+67
8Beşiktaş3+47
9Sunderland3+27
10AZ Alkmaar3+46
11Omonia Nicosia3+16
12Lyon3-16
13Rennes3+15
14Real Sociedad3+54
15Crystal Palace3+34
16Sparta Praha3+24
17Levski Sofia304
18Dinamo Zagreb3-14
19Sturm Graz3-24
20NEC Nijmegen3-34
21Red Bull Salzburg3-34
22Anderlecht3+13
231899 Hoffenheim303
24AC Milan3-13
25Celta Vigo3-13
26OFI3-13
27Jagiellonia3-23
28Torreense3-33
29Celje3-51
30Hapoel Beer Sheva3-51
31Lillestrom3-71
32Lech Poznan3-81
33Plzen3-50
34Marseille3-50
35Celtic3-60
36Ararat-Armenia3-90
See full table ›

Top scorers

Europa League top scorers
#PlayerMGoals
1L. DionyOmonia Nicosia74
2A. CissèAC Milan33
3Yeremy PinoCrystal Palace33
4Sergio GómezReal Sociedad33
5K. ZachariassenFerencvarosi TC113

Season statistics

This season, all competitions we cover
StatLech PoznanBayer Leverkusen
Played00
Wins00
Draws00
Losses00
Goals for (avg)00
Goals against (avg)00
Clean sheets00
Failed to score00
Best win streak00

Match preview

Lech Poznan host Bayer Leverkusen in the Europa League (League Stage - 2) at Stadion Miejski, Poznan, with kick-off on Thursday, 15 October 2026 at 17:45 WAT.

Our prediction model makes Bayer Leverkusen favourites, giving Lech Poznan a 23% chance of winning, 22% for the draw and 55% for Bayer Leverkusen. Our tip is: Bayer Leverkusen to win.

On the goals markets, we expect goals, with a 66% chance of over 2.5 and a 64% chance that both teams score.

Competition
Europe Europa League
Date
Thursday, 15 October 2026, 17:45 WAT
Venue
Stadion Miejski, Poznan

TodaysPrediction analysis team

Model-based football predictions. How our predictions work

Quick answers

When is Lech Poznan vs Bayer Leverkusen?

Lech Poznan vs Bayer Leverkusen kicks off on Thursday, 15 October 2026 at 17:45 West Africa Time.

Which competition is Lech Poznan vs Bayer Leverkusen in?

The match is in the Europe Europa League.

Where are Lech Poznan and Bayer Leverkusen in the table?

Lech Poznan are 32nd and Bayer Leverkusen are 2nd in the Europa League.

Who will win Lech Poznan vs Bayer Leverkusen?

Our prediction is Bayer Leverkusen to win. Win probabilities: Lech Poznan 23%, draw 22%, Bayer Leverkusen 55%.

Will both teams score in Lech Poznan vs Bayer Leverkusen?

We estimate a 64% chance that both teams score, so our BTTS tip is Yes.

Will there be over 2.5 goals in Lech Poznan vs Bayer Leverkusen?

We estimate a 66% chance of three or more goals, so our tip is Over 2.5 goals.

Are these predictions guaranteed?

No. They are statistical estimates. A 70% tip should still lose about three times in ten, so only stake what you can afford to lose.

How often are predictions updated?

Predictions refresh automatically through the day as new data arrives, and every tip is marked right or wrong after full time.

More Europa League on Thu 15 Oct

FTTorreense 1-2 Sunderland2 ✓FTRed Bull Salzburg 0-4 AC MilanX2 ✓FTUnion St. Gilloise 1-1 Real Sociedad12 ✗FTLyon 3-2 Crystal Palace12 ✓FTCelje 0-3 Omonia NicosiaX2 ✓FTAZ Alkmaar 2-1 Hapoel Beer Sheva1 ✓FTSparta Praha 1-1 Lillestrom1 ✗FTBenfica 4-1 CelticOver 2.5 ✓FTCelta Vigo 1-2 JuventusX2 ✓FTRennes 2-1 OFI1 ✓FTBournemouth 3-0 Sturm GrazOver 2.5 ✓FT1899 Hoffenheim 2-3 Beşiktaş1X ✗FTNEC Nijmegen 1-1 Levski SofiaOver 1.5 ✓FTFerencvarosi TC 2-1 PlzenOver 1.5 ✓FTDinamo Zagreb 1-0 AnderlechtOver 1.5 ✗FTJagiellonia 3-1 Ararat-Armenia1 ✓FTMarseille 0-1 Olympiakos PiraeusOver 1.5 ✗

All football predictions for today