DFB Pokal · Round of 32
Match events
1. FC Nürnberg- 13'Goal: Rafael LubachAssist: William Bøving
- 30'Goal: Sigurd HaugenAssist: William Bøving
- Goal: Edmond TapsobaAssist: Aleix García41'
- Substitution: Malik TillmanOff: Ibrahim Maza45'
- Substitution: Patrik SchickOff: Afonso Moreira45'
- Substitution: Robert AndrichOff: Equi Fernández45'
HT 1-2
- Goal: Edmond Tapsoba49'
- 60'Substitution: Sigurd HaugenOff: Piet Scobel
- 60'Substitution: Eric PorstnerOff: Andrea Ceresoli
- Substitution: Nathan TellaOff: Jarell Quansah68'
- Penalty goal: Patrik Schick (pen)70'
- Yellow card: Equi FernándezFoul73'
- 76'Substitution: Tim JanischOff: Giannis Masouras
- 76'Substitution: Rayan GhriebOff: Rafael Lubach
- Goal: Jonas HofmannAssist: Aleix García78'
- 81'Yellow card: Giannis MasourasFoul
- Yellow card: Lucas VázquezFoul86'
- 87'Substitution: Javier FernándezOff: Marc Kornwachs Barjuan
- Substitution: Jonas HofmannOff: Victor Okoh Boniface87'
- Goal: Lucas Vázquez89'
Our verdict
Over 2.5
Bet365 1.22
✓ This tip was correct · final score 5-2
Win probability
Match statistics
- 60%Possession40%
- 3.06Expected goals (xG)1.02
- 25Total shots5
- 10Shots on target3
- 7Shots off target0
- 8Blocked shots2
- 19Shots inside the box2
- 13Corners3
- 2Offsides0
- 10Fouls8
- 2Yellow cards1
- 0Red cards0
- 1Goalkeeper saves5
- 608Passes423
- 538Accurate passes349
Line-ups
Bayer Leverkusen
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 28J. BlaswichG
- 17Lucas VázquezD
- 12E. TapsobaD
- 2F. MedinaD
- 3Miguel GutiérrezD
- 8R. AndrichM
- 24Aleix GarcíaM
- 7J. HofmannM
- 10M. TillmanM
- 9Afonso MoreiraM
- 23N. TellaF
Substitutes
- 22V. BonifaceF
- 42M. CulbreathM
- 39K. DoganayM
- 6E. FernándezM
- 1M. FlekkenG
- 30I. MazaM
- 15T. OermannD
- 4J. QuansahD
- 14P. SchickF
Coach: Carles Martínez
1. FC Nürnberg
4-2-2-2Starting XI
- 1J. ReichertG
- 32T. JanischD
- 4A. KalogeropoulosD
- 20F. OttoD
- 14Andrea CeresoliD
- 6A. MarhievM
- 8J. FernandezM
- 10J. JustvanM
- 18Rafael LubachM
- 11W. BøvingF
- 9S. HaugenF
Substitutes
- 7R. GhriebF
- 13Robin LisewskiG
- 21G. MasourasD
- 5S. MkrtchyanD
- 28Can Yaha MoustfaF
- 41E. PorstnerD
- 19P. ScobelF
- 16Marko SoldicM
- 35M. Kornwachs BarjuanM
Coach: M. Klose
Betting markets
Expected goals 2.92 – 1.03Half time / full time result. 1 = Bayer Leverkusen, X = draw, 2 = 1. FC Nürnberg.
Asian handicap applied to Bayer Leverkusen.
Market percentages come from our model's expected goals for each side. Fair odds are 100 ÷ probability.
Model comparison
Last matches
Newest firstBayer Leverkusen3W 0D 1L · last 41. FC Nürnberg0W 1D 0L · last 1DFB Pokal table
| # | Team | P | +/- | Pts | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bayern München | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +5 | 3 | |
| 2 | Bayer Leverkusen | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +3 | 3 | |
| 3 | 1. FC Kaiserslautern | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 3 | |
| 4 | Dynamo Dresden | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 3 | |
| 5 | Hertha BSC | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 3 | |
| 6 | SC Freiburg | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 3 | |
| 7 | VfB Stuttgart | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 3 | |
| 8 | 1899 Hoffenheim | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| 9 | Holstein Kiel | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| 10 | VfL Wolfsburg | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | |
| 11 | SC Paderborn 07 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | |
| 12 | FC Schalke 04 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 | |
| 13 | Hannover 96 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 | |
| 14 | SSV Jeddeloh | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 | |
| 15 | 1. FC Nürnberg | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 0 | |
| 16 | 1. FC Magdeburg | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -5 | 0 |
Season statistics
This season, all competitions we cover| Stat | Bayer Leverkusen | 1. FC Nürnberg |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 4 | 1 |
| Wins | 3 | 0 |
| Draws | 0 | 1 |
| Losses | 1 | 0 |
| Goals for (avg) | 2 | 1 |
| Goals against (avg) | 1 | 1 |
| Clean sheets | 2 | 0 |
| Failed to score | 1 | 0 |
| Best win streak | 3 | 0 |
Recent goal lines
How many of each team's last 4 games went over the line
| Over 1.5 | 4/4 | 1/1 |
|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 | 3/4 | 0/1 |
| Over 3.5 | 1/4 | 0/1 |
| BTTS – yes | 1/4 | 1/1 |
Match preview
Bayer Leverkusen host 1. FC Nürnberg in the DFB Pokal (Round of 32) at BayArena, Bayer Leverkusen, with kick-off on Wednesday, 28 October 2026 at 20:45 WAT.
Our prediction model makes Bayer Leverkusen clear favourites, giving Bayer Leverkusen a 76% chance of winning, 14% for the draw and 10% for 1. FC Nürnberg. Our tip is: Over 2.5.
Bayer Leverkusen have taken 9 points from their last 4 games (3W 0D 1L). 1. FC Nürnberg have taken 1 points from their last 1 games (0W 1D 0L).
On the goals markets, we expect goals, with a 76% chance of over 2.5 and a 61% chance that both teams score.
- Competition
- Germany DFB Pokal
- Date
- Wednesday, 28 October 2026, 20:45 WAT
- Venue
- BayArena, Bayer Leverkusen
TodaysPrediction analysis team
Model-based football predictions. How our predictions work
Quick answers
When is Bayer Leverkusen vs 1. FC Nürnberg?
Bayer Leverkusen vs 1. FC Nürnberg kicks off on Wednesday, 28 October 2026 at 20:45 West Africa Time.
Which competition is Bayer Leverkusen vs 1. FC Nürnberg in?
The match is in the Germany DFB Pokal.
Where are Bayer Leverkusen and 1. FC Nürnberg in the table?
Bayer Leverkusen are 2nd and 1. FC Nürnberg are 15th in the DFB Pokal.
Who will win Bayer Leverkusen vs 1. FC Nürnberg?
Our prediction is Over 2.5. Win probabilities: Bayer Leverkusen 76%, draw 14%, 1. FC Nürnberg 10%.
Will both teams score in Bayer Leverkusen vs 1. FC Nürnberg?
We estimate a 61% chance that both teams score, so our BTTS tip is Yes.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Bayer Leverkusen vs 1. FC Nürnberg?
We estimate a 76% chance of three or more goals, so our tip is Over 2.5 goals.
Are these predictions guaranteed?
No. They are statistical estimates. A 70% tip should still lose about three times in ten, so only stake what you can afford to lose.
How often are predictions updated?
Predictions refresh automatically through the day as new data arrives, and every tip is marked right or wrong after full time.