Top football predictions today

What counts as a "top tip" on this page

Every evening at 20:00 WAT we publish the next day's tips all at once: between 40 and 100 of them, one per match, for games kicking off between 11:00 and 23:00 WAT. Once they're out, they don't change. This page doesn't add new picks. It takes all of today's and tomorrow's tips and sorts them by one thing: how likely our numbers say each one is to land. The 20 at the top are what you see above.

That sounds simple, and it is. We think it should be. A list called "top tips" ought to answer one question: of everything we've published, which calls are we most confident in? It shouldn't depend on who's playing or how big the league is. On 15 October the top spot went to Express v UPDF in the Ugandan Premier League, above every European game on the card, because that's where the numbers pointed.

How we build the list

Each tip starts with the bookmaker's prices. We strip out the bookmaker's margin, turn the odds into probabilities, and fit a scoreline model to them. Where a league has enough history, our own expected-goals model gets a small say too. From that one model we read every market (result, double chance, goals, both teams to score), so the numbers never contradict each other.

A match only gets a tip if a market prices between 1.20 and 1.75. Below 1.20 there's too little to gain, and above 1.75 we're guessing more than we'd like. A match with no bookmaker odds gets no tip at all.

A real example: Ferencváros v Plzeň

Take one from the list of 15 October. Ferencváros hosted Plzeň in the Europa League on 15 October. Our model had Ferencváros scoring about 1.7 goals and Plzeň about 1.2, roughly three goals between them. The home win was only 50%, nowhere near confident enough to back.

The goals side looked very different. Two goals or more came out at 80%, priced at 1.20, so the tip was Over 1.5 and it went near the top of the list. The game finished 2-1.

The lesson isn't that we were right; one result proves nothing. It's that the best bet in a match is often not the winner. When two decent attacking sides meet and nobody is a clear favourite, the goals market usually carries the stronger number, and that's where we look.

Markets you'll see in the top 20

Over 1.5 goals

This is the one you'll see most. It wins with two or more goals in total. Most leagues average well over two goals a game, so between two teams who score freely it often rates 75% or higher. The trade-off is the price, which is usually at the low end of our 1.20 to 1.75 range.

Double chance (1X, X2, 12)

This covers two of the three results. 1X wins if the home side wins or draws. We use it when one side is stronger but not by enough to back them outright.

Home win or away win

A straight 1 or 2 only reaches the top 20 when the favourite is clear and still priced at 1.20 or more. That's rarer than you'd think, because the clearest favourites are often priced below 1.20.

Over 2.5 and under 3.5 goals

Over 2.5 needs three goals; under 3.5 wins with three or fewer. Under 3.5 tends to show up in tighter, lower-scoring games.

Both teams to score (GG/NG)

GG needs both sides to score. It's a good fit when two teams attack well and defend badly, and a poor one when either side relies on a single striker.

Which market suits you?

Can a top tip still lose?

Yes, and regularly. An 80% tip loses one time in five. That's what 80% means. If you back ten of them, two or so will probably go down, and on a bad day it can be four.

It matters most when you stack tips into one slip. Each leg you add multiplies the chances together, and the slip's chance falls faster than most people expect:

Five of our strongest picks in one slip will lose more often than they win. That's why we'd rather you play a few singles or a small double than a ten-leg accumulator built from this list.

How we keep ourselves honest

Every tip on this site is checked after full time and marked right or wrong. We don't delete the misses or quietly drop a bad week. The accuracy page shows the running record by market and by league. If our top tips start landing less often than the percentages say, you'll see it there before we say anything.

Mistakes we see all the time

Backing the badge

A famous name doesn't win the match. Big clubs rest players, travel badly and lose to teams they "should" beat. We rank by the numbers for exactly this reason.

Turning the top 20 into one slip

See the table above. A long slip of short prices looks low-risk and isn't.

Chasing yesterday's losses

Doubling the stake to win it back is how a bad day becomes a bad month. Yesterday's results don't change today's chances.

Ignoring the price

If your bookmaker offers less than our fair price (100 divided by the percentage), the bet isn't worth what it looks. Shop around or skip it.

Using these tips sensibly

• Decide your budget before you look at the list, not after.
• Prefer singles and small doubles to long accumulators.
• Treat the percentage as a guide, never a promise.
• Bet only if you are of legal age where you live.
• If betting has stopped being fun, step away. Our responsible gambling page lists where to find help.