Skip to content
TodaysPrediction

Sturm Graz vs Marseille prediction

Sturm Graz vs Marseille prediction for the Europa League on 22 Oct 2026: Marseille or draw (70%). Probabilities, betting markets, form, H2H and stats.

Premier LeagueChampions LeagueLa LigaSerie ABundesligaAnd more

Thursday22October 2026
Yesterday: 28/42 correct(67%)
Europa League · League Stage - 3
Sturm GrazMarseille
1 - 0Full time · Thu 22 OctHT 1-0
Stadion Graz-Liebenau, Graz

Match events

Sturm GrazMarseille
  1. Goal: Oumar DiakitéAssist: Luca Weinhandl13'
  2. 24'Yellow card: Angel GomesFoul
  3. Yellow card: Oumar DiakitéFoul32'
  4. 45'Substitution: Angel GomesOff: Himad Abdelli
  5. 45'Substitution: Neal MaupayOff: Igor Paixão
  6. Substitution: Oumar DiakitéOff: Belmin Beganovic45'

HT 1-0

  1. Yellow card: Luca WeinhandlFoul63'
  2. 65'Substitution: Geoffrey KondogbiaOff: Pierre-Emile Højbjerg
  3. 65'Substitution: Nayef AguerdOff: CJ Egan-Riley
  4. 80'Yellow card: Amine GouiriFoul
  5. 83'Substitution: Kelyann BezahafOff: Timothy Weah
  6. Yellow card: Arjan MalićFoul84'
  7. Substitution: Albert VallciOff: Jacob Peter Hödl87'
  8. Substitution: Valmir MatoshiOff: Julian Halwachs90'
  9. 90+1'Yellow card: Bamo MeiteFoul

Our verdict

X2 ✗

Marseille or draw

Bet365 1.28

70%

✗ This tip lost · final score 1-0

Expected goals2.9

Win probability

1 · Sturm Graz30%
Fair odds 3.33
X · Draw25%
Fair odds 4.00
2 · Marseille45%
Fair odds 2.22

Match statistics

  • 29%Possession71%
  • 1.47Expected goals (xG)0.73
  • 13Total shots14
  • 5Shots on target1
  • 5Shots off target10
  • 3Blocked shots3
  • 6Shots inside the box8
  • 2Corners4
  • 3Offsides1
  • 23Fouls9
  • 3Yellow cards3
  • 0Red cards0
  • 1Goalkeeper saves4
  • 273Passes676
  • 183Accurate passes597

Line-ups

Sturm Graz

3-4-1-2

Starting XI

  1. 22A. HelacG
  2. 23A. MalicD
  3. 2J. QuarshieD
  4. 30P. KollerD
  5. 43Jacob Peter HödlM
  6. 4J. Gorenc StankovičM
  7. 78V. MatoshiM
  8. 27L. BalboM
  9. 39Luca WeinhandlM
  10. 19S. SeidlF
  11. 14O. DiakitéF

Substitutes

  1. 26B. BeganovićF
  2. 25M. GrgicM
  3. 40J. HalwachsM
  4. 11A. KayomboF
  5. 41E. LorenzG
  6. 21P. PetrovićD
  7. 5A. VallciD
  8. 32C. Wiener-PucherG

Coach: F. Ingolitsch

Marseille

4-2-3-1

Starting XI

  1. 12J. de LangeG
  2. 74K. BezahafD
  3. 18B. MeitéD
  4. 21N. AguerdD
  5. 25U. GarciaD
  6. 42Nouhoum KamissokoM
  7. 19G. KondogbiaM
  8. 48K. AbdallahM
  9. 7A. GomesM
  10. 9A. GouiriM
  11. 11N. MaupayF

Substitutes

  1. 23P. HøjbjergM
  2. 43T. MmadiF
  3. 6T. NnadiM
  4. 14Igor PaixãoF
  5. 22T. WeahF
  6. 44Antoine ValeroF
  7. 8H. AbdelliM
  8. 77A. HaritM
  9. 33EmersonD
  10. 4C. Egan-RileyD
  11. 41Ibrahim GomisG
  12. 40J. Van NeckG

Coach: Bruno Genesio

Betting markets

Expected goals 1.26 – 1.60
0.5 goalsOver94.3%Under5.7%
1.5 goalsOver77.9%Under22.1%
2.5 goalsOver54.5%Under45.5%
3.5 goalsOver32.1%Under67.9%
4.5 goalsOver16.2%Under83.8%

Market percentages come from our model's expected goals for each side. Fair odds are 100 ÷ probability.

Model comparison

Sturm GrazMarseille
50%Form50%
55%Attack45%
43%Defence57%
50%Head to head50%
44%Expected goals56%
40%Overall60%

Last matches

Newest first
Sturm Graz1W 0D 1L · last 2
WSturm Graz vs Grazer AK18 Oct 2026 · Bundesliga6-1LBournemouth vs Sturm Graz15 Oct 2026 · Europa League3-0
Marseille1W 0D 1L · last 2
WAngers vs Marseille18 Oct 2026 · Ligue 12-5LMarseille vs Olympiakos Piraeus15 Oct 2026 · Europa League0-1

Europa League table

Europa League table
#TeamP+/-Pts
1Benfica3+89
2Bayer Leverkusen3+89
3Bournemouth3+79
4Ferencvarosi TC3+69
5Olympiakos Piraeus3+39
6Union St. Gilloise3+77
7Juventus3+67
8Beşiktaş3+47
9Sunderland3+27
10AZ Alkmaar3+46
11Omonia Nicosia3+16
12Lyon3-16
13Rennes3+15
14Real Sociedad3+54
15Crystal Palace3+34
16Sparta Praha3+24
17Levski Sofia304
18Dinamo Zagreb3-14
19Sturm Graz3-24
20NEC Nijmegen3-34
21Red Bull Salzburg3-34
22Anderlecht3+13
231899 Hoffenheim303
24AC Milan3-13
25Celta Vigo3-13
26OFI3-13
27Jagiellonia3-23
28Torreense3-33
29Celje3-51
30Hapoel Beer Sheva3-51
31Lillestrom3-71
32Lech Poznan3-81
33Plzen3-50
34Marseille3-50
35Celtic3-60
36Ararat-Armenia3-90
See full table ›

Top scorers

Europa League top scorers
#PlayerMGoals
1L. DionyOmonia Nicosia74
2A. CissèAC Milan33
3Yeremy PinoCrystal Palace33
4Sergio GómezReal Sociedad33
5K. ZachariassenFerencvarosi TC113

Season statistics

This season, all competitions we cover
StatSturm GrazMarseille
Played22
Wins11
Draws00
Losses11
Goals for (avg)32.5
Goals against (avg)21.5
Clean sheets00
Failed to score11
Best win streak11

Recent goal lines

How many of each team's last 2 games went over the line

Over 1.52/21/2
Over 2.52/21/2
Over 3.51/21/2
BTTS – yes1/21/2

Match preview

Sturm Graz host Marseille in the Europa League (League Stage - 3) at Stadion Graz-Liebenau, Graz, with kick-off on Thursday, 22 October 2026 at 17:45 WAT.

Our prediction model makes Marseille slight favourites, giving Sturm Graz a 30% chance of winning, 25% for the draw and 45% for Marseille. Our tip is: Marseille or draw.

Sturm Graz have taken 3 points from their last 2 games (1W 0D 1L). Marseille have taken 3 points from their last 2 games (1W 0D 1L).

On the goals markets, we expect goals, with a 54% chance of over 2.5 and a 58% chance that both teams score.

Competition
Europe Europa League
Date
Thursday, 22 October 2026, 17:45 WAT
Venue
Stadion Graz-Liebenau, Graz

TodaysPrediction analysis team

Model-based football predictions. How our predictions work

Quick answers

When is Sturm Graz vs Marseille?

Sturm Graz vs Marseille kicks off on Thursday, 22 October 2026 at 17:45 West Africa Time.

Which competition is Sturm Graz vs Marseille in?

The match is in the Europe Europa League.

Where are Sturm Graz and Marseille in the table?

Sturm Graz are 19th and Marseille are 34th in the Europa League.

Who will win Sturm Graz vs Marseille?

Our prediction is Marseille or draw. Win probabilities: Sturm Graz 30%, draw 25%, Marseille 45%.

Will both teams score in Sturm Graz vs Marseille?

We estimate a 58% chance that both teams score, so our BTTS tip is Yes.

Will there be over 2.5 goals in Sturm Graz vs Marseille?

We estimate a 54% chance of three or more goals, so our tip is Over 2.5 goals.

Are these predictions guaranteed?

No. They are statistical estimates. A 70% tip should still lose about three times in ten, so only stake what you can afford to lose.

How often are predictions updated?

Predictions refresh automatically through the day as new data arrives, and every tip is marked right or wrong after full time.

More Europa League on Thu 22 Oct

FTArarat-Armenia 0-4 AZ Alkmaar2 ✓FTDinamo Zagreb 2-4 NEC Nijmegen1 ✗FTOFI 0-2 Bayer Leverkusen2 ✓FTFerencvarosi TC 4-1 Torreense1 ✓FTJuventus 2-2 Rennes1 ✗FTLech Poznan 1-1 SunderlandOver 1.5 ✓FTUnion St. Gilloise 4-0 Hapoel Beer Sheva1 ✓FTBeşiktaş 2-2 Crystal Palace12 ✗FTBournemouth 3-0 AC MilanOver 1.5 ✓FTCeltic 1-2 Celta VigoX2 ✓FT1899 Hoffenheim 3-0 Lyon12 ✓FTJagiellonia 0-3 AnderlechtX2 ✓FTOmonia Nicosia 1-4 Benfica2 ✓FTCelje 2-2 Red Bull Salzburg2 ✗FTLillestrom 0-6 Real Sociedad2 ✓FTOlympiakos Piraeus 1-0 Sparta Praha1 ✓FTPlzen 1-2 Levski SofiaOver 1.5 ✓

All football predictions for today