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Bournemouth vs AC Milan prediction

Bournemouth vs AC Milan prediction for the Europa League on 22 Oct 2026: Over 1.5 (77%). Probabilities, betting markets, form, H2H and stats.

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Thursday22October 2026
Yesterday: 28/42 correct(67%)
Europa League · League Stage - 3
BournemouthAC Milan
3 - 0Full time · Thu 22 OctHT 2-0
Vitality Stadium, Bournemouth

Match events

BournemouthAC Milan
  1. VAR: Francisco EvanilsonPenalty confirmedVAR6'
  2. Penalty goal: Justin Kluivert (pen)8'
  3. Yellow card: Bafode DiakiteFoul16'
  4. 27'Red card: Mike MaignanViolent Conduct
  5. Yellow card: Tyler AdamsArgument29'
  6. 32'Substitution: Omari HutchinsonOff: Lorenzo Torriani
  7. Penalty goal: Marcus Tavernier (pen)32'
  8. 35'Yellow card: Pervis EstupinanFoul
  9. 45'Substitution: Pervis EstupinanOff: Davide Bartesaghi
  10. 45'Substitution: Ruben Loftus-CheekOff: Adrien Rabiot

HT 2-0

  1. Substitution: Tyler AdamsOff: Lewis Cook61'
  2. Substitution: Marcus TavernierOff: Rayan Vitor Simplício Rocha62'
  3. Substitution: Justin KluivertOff: Alex Tóth62'
  4. 63'Yellow card: Fikayo TomoriFoul
  5. Substitution: Francisco EvanilsonOff: Álvaro Rodríguez66'
  6. 66'Substitution: Fikayo TomoriOff: Sankhoun Diawara
  7. 76'Substitution: Christian ComottoOff: Diego Moreira
  8. Substitution: Alex TóthOff: Amine Adli77'
  9. 81'Yellow card: Koni De WinterFoul
  10. Goal: Amine Adli84'

Our verdict

Over 1.5 ✓

Over 1.5

Bet365 1.22

77%

✓ This tip was correct · final score 3-0

Expected goals2.8

Win probability

1 · Bournemouth43%
Fair odds 2.33
X · Draw26%
Fair odds 3.85
2 · AC Milan31%
Fair odds 3.23

Match statistics

  • 64%Possession36%
  • 3.18Expected goals (xG)0.17
  • 20Total shots3
  • 7Shots on target0
  • 9Shots off target2
  • 4Blocked shots1
  • 11Shots inside the box2
  • 6Corners4
  • 2Offsides1
  • 18Fouls15
  • 2Yellow cards3
  • 0Red cards1
  • 0Goalkeeper saves4
  • 507Passes288
  • 452Accurate passes228

Line-ups

Bournemouth

4-4-2

Starting XI

  1. 20M. Di GregorioG
  2. 5J. HillD
  3. 18B. DiakitéD
  4. 14António SilvaD
  5. 3A. TruffertD
  6. 11B. DoakM
  7. 10R. ChristieM
  8. 12T. AdamsM
  9. 16M. TavernierM
  10. 19J. KluivertF
  11. 9EvanilsonF

Substitutes

  1. 55M. AllanG
  2. 7D. BrooksM
  3. 4L. CookM
  4. 21A. AdliF
  5. 1Đ. PetrovićG
  6. 37RayanF
  7. 30Á. RodríguezF
  8. 15A. SmithD
  9. 6J. SolerD
  10. 27A. TóthM

Coach: M. Rose

AC Milan

3-4-2-1

Starting XI

  1. 16M. MaignanG
  2. 23F. TomoriD
  3. 5K. De WinterD
  4. 31S. PavlovićD
  5. 22Diego MoreiraM
  6. 80Y. MusahM
  7. 30A. JashariM
  8. 2P. EstupiñánM
  9. 20O. HutchinsonM
  10. 8R. Loftus-CheekM
  11. 70A. CissèF

Substitutes

  1. 41L. P. BouyerG
  2. 73F. CamardaF
  3. 28C. ComottoM
  4. 13S. BocoumD
  5. 34Mario GilaD
  6. 14L. ModrićM
  7. 11C. PulišićM
  8. 12A. RabiotM
  9. 96L. TorrianiG
  10. 35V. VladimirovD
  11. 33D. BartesaghiD

Coach: Ruben Amorim

Betting markets

Expected goals 1.52 – 1.27
0.5 goalsOver93.9%Under6.1%
1.5 goalsOver76.7%Under23.3%
2.5 goalsOver52.8%Under47.2%
3.5 goalsOver30.6%Under69.4%
4.5 goalsOver15.1%Under84.9%

Market percentages come from our model's expected goals for each side. Fair odds are 100 ÷ probability.

Model comparison

BournemouthAC Milan
50%Form50%
42%Attack58%
83%Defence17%
50%Head to head50%
54%Expected goals46%
58%Overall42%

Last matches

Newest first
Bournemouth2W 0D 0L · last 2
WBournemouth vs Sunderland18 Oct 2026 · Premier League2-0WBournemouth vs Sturm Graz15 Oct 2026 · Europa League3-0
AC Milan2W 0D 0L · last 2
WAC Milan vs Atalanta18 Oct 2026 · Serie A3-2WRed Bull Salzburg vs AC Milan15 Oct 2026 · Europa League0-4

Europa League table

Europa League table
#TeamP+/-Pts
1Benfica3+89
2Bayer Leverkusen3+89
3Bournemouth3+79
4Ferencvarosi TC3+69
5Olympiakos Piraeus3+39
6Union St. Gilloise3+77
7Juventus3+67
8Beşiktaş3+47
9Sunderland3+27
10AZ Alkmaar3+46
11Omonia Nicosia3+16
12Lyon3-16
13Rennes3+15
14Real Sociedad3+54
15Crystal Palace3+34
16Sparta Praha3+24
17Levski Sofia304
18Dinamo Zagreb3-14
19Sturm Graz3-24
20NEC Nijmegen3-34
21Red Bull Salzburg3-34
22Anderlecht3+13
231899 Hoffenheim303
24AC Milan3-13
25Celta Vigo3-13
26OFI3-13
27Jagiellonia3-23
28Torreense3-33
29Celje3-51
30Hapoel Beer Sheva3-51
31Lillestrom3-71
32Lech Poznan3-81
33Plzen3-50
34Marseille3-50
35Celtic3-60
36Ararat-Armenia3-90
See full table ›

Top scorers

Europa League top scorers
#PlayerMGoals
1L. DionyOmonia Nicosia74
2A. CissèAC Milan33
3Yeremy PinoCrystal Palace33
4Sergio GómezReal Sociedad33
5K. ZachariassenFerencvarosi TC113

Season statistics

This season, all competitions we cover
StatBournemouthAC Milan
Played22
Wins22
Draws00
Losses00
Goals for (avg)2.53.5
Goals against (avg)01
Clean sheets21
Failed to score00
Best win streak22

Recent goal lines

How many of each team's last 2 games went over the line

Over 1.52/22/2
Over 2.51/22/2
Over 3.50/22/2
BTTS – yes0/21/2

Match preview

Bournemouth host AC Milan in the Europa League (League Stage - 3) at Vitality Stadium, Bournemouth, with kick-off on Thursday, 22 October 2026 at 20:00 WAT.

Our prediction model makes Bournemouth slight favourites, giving Bournemouth a 43% chance of winning, 26% for the draw and 31% for AC Milan. Our tip is: Over 1.5.

Bournemouth have taken 6 points from their last 2 games (2W 0D 0L). AC Milan have taken 6 points from their last 2 games (2W 0D 0L).

On the goals markets, we expect goals, with a 53% chance of over 2.5 and a 57% chance that both teams score.

Competition
Europe Europa League
Date
Thursday, 22 October 2026, 20:00 WAT
Venue
Vitality Stadium, Bournemouth

TodaysPrediction analysis team

Model-based football predictions. How our predictions work

Quick answers

When is Bournemouth vs AC Milan?

Bournemouth vs AC Milan kicks off on Thursday, 22 October 2026 at 20:00 West Africa Time.

Which competition is Bournemouth vs AC Milan in?

The match is in the Europe Europa League.

Where are Bournemouth and AC Milan in the table?

Bournemouth are 3rd and AC Milan are 24th in the Europa League.

Who will win Bournemouth vs AC Milan?

Our prediction is Over 1.5. Win probabilities: Bournemouth 43%, draw 26%, AC Milan 31%.

Will both teams score in Bournemouth vs AC Milan?

We estimate a 57% chance that both teams score, so our BTTS tip is Yes.

Will there be over 2.5 goals in Bournemouth vs AC Milan?

We estimate a 53% chance of three or more goals, so our tip is Over 2.5 goals.

Are these predictions guaranteed?

No. They are statistical estimates. A 70% tip should still lose about three times in ten, so only stake what you can afford to lose.

How often are predictions updated?

Predictions refresh automatically through the day as new data arrives, and every tip is marked right or wrong after full time.

More Europa League on Thu 22 Oct

FTArarat-Armenia 0-4 AZ Alkmaar2 ✓FTDinamo Zagreb 2-4 NEC Nijmegen1 ✗FTOFI 0-2 Bayer Leverkusen2 ✓FTFerencvarosi TC 4-1 Torreense1 ✓FTJuventus 2-2 Rennes1 ✗FTLech Poznan 1-1 SunderlandOver 1.5 ✓FTUnion St. Gilloise 4-0 Hapoel Beer Sheva1 ✓FTSturm Graz 1-0 MarseilleX2 ✗FTBeşiktaş 2-2 Crystal Palace12 ✗FTCeltic 1-2 Celta VigoX2 ✓FT1899 Hoffenheim 3-0 Lyon12 ✓FTJagiellonia 0-3 AnderlechtX2 ✓FTOmonia Nicosia 1-4 Benfica2 ✓FTCelje 2-2 Red Bull Salzburg2 ✗FTLillestrom 0-6 Real Sociedad2 ✓FTOlympiakos Piraeus 1-0 Sparta Praha1 ✓FTPlzen 1-2 Levski SofiaOver 1.5 ✓

All football predictions for today