Match events
Sunderland- 2'Goal: Timur TutierovAssist: Nilson Angulo
- 41'Yellow card: Kevin DansoFoul
HT 0-1
- Substitution: Daniel HåkansOff: Luis Palma62'
- Substitution: Pablo Rodriguez DelgadoOff: Leo Bengtsson62'
- 63'Substitution: Nilson AnguloOff: Chris Rigg
- 63'Substitution: Habib DiarraOff: Enzo Le Fée
- 63'Substitution: Granit XhakaOff: Noah Sadiki
- 63'Substitution: Nordi MukieleOff: Trai Hume
- Goal: Leo Bengtsson70'
- Substitution: Patrick WalemarkOff: Gustav Berggren82'
- Substitution: Radosław MurawskiOff: Y. Agnero83'
- 85'Substitution: Timur TutierovOff: Reinildo Isnard Mandava
- Substitution: Mikael IshakOff: Filip Jagiełło87'
Our verdict
Over 1.5
Bet365 1.25
✓ This tip was correct · final score 1-1
Win probability
Match statistics
- 43%Possession57%
- 2.51Expected goals (xG)2.78
- 16Total shots25
- 6Shots on target11
- 8Shots off target11
- 2Blocked shots3
- 14Shots inside the box20
- 3Corners6
- 1Offsides1
- 7Fouls13
- 0Yellow cards1
- 0Red cards0
- 11Goalkeeper saves5
- 392Passes506
- 310Accurate passes443
Line-ups
Lech Poznan
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 1M. LisG
- 2Joel PereiraD
- 72M. SkrzypczakD
- 59T. YegbeD
- 15M. GurgulD
- 43A. KozubalM
- 22R. MurawskiM
- 10P. WålemarkM
- 21Pablo RodríguezM
- 11D. HåkansM
- 9M. IshakF
Substitutes
- 7Y. AgneroF
- 55Piotr BartczakD
- 14L. BengtssonM
- 5G. BerggrenM
- 24F. JagiełłoM
- 90H. JanyszkaD
- 31Wiktor ObremskiG
- 77L. PalmaM
- 33M. PruchniewskiG
- 56W. SzymczakF
Coach: N. Frederiksen
Sunderland
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 22R. RoefsG
- 20N. MukieleD
- 4K. DansoD
- 13L. O'NienD
- 6D. MethalieD
- 34G. XhakaM
- 29Jules AhokaM
- 10N. AnguloM
- 19H. DiarraM
- 39M. FofanaM
- 57Timur TuterovF
Substitutes
- 32T. HumeD
- 40J. WhittakerM
- 47T. OgunsuyiF
- 27N. SadikiM
- 11C. RiggM
- 77T. ProctorM
- 21S. MooreG
- 17ReinildoD
- 28E. Le FéeM
- 15O. AldereteD
- 48Jenson JonesD
- 49F. ScottF
Coach: R. Le Bris
Betting markets
Expected goals 1.12 – 1.59Half time / full time result. 1 = Lech Poznan, X = draw, 2 = Sunderland.
Asian handicap applied to Lech Poznan.
Market percentages come from our model's expected goals for each side. Fair odds are 100 ÷ probability.
Model comparison
Last matches
Newest firstEuropa League table
| # | Team | P | +/- | Pts | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Benfica | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +8 | 9 | WWW |
| 2 | Bayer Leverkusen | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +8 | 9 | WWW |
| 3 | Bournemouth | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +7 | 9 | WWW |
| 4 | Ferencvarosi TC | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +6 | 9 | WWW |
| 5 | Olympiakos Piraeus | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +3 | 9 | WWW |
| 6 | Union St. Gilloise | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +7 | 7 | WDW |
| 7 | Juventus | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +6 | 7 | DWW |
| 8 | Beşiktaş | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +4 | 7 | DWW |
| 9 | Sunderland | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 7 | DWW |
| 10 | AZ Alkmaar | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +4 | 6 | WWL |
| 11 | Omonia Nicosia | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 6 | LWW |
| 12 | Lyon | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 6 | LWW |
| 13 | Rennes | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 5 | DWD |
| 14 | Real Sociedad | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +5 | 4 | WDL |
| 15 | Crystal Palace | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +3 | 4 | DLW |
| 16 | Sparta Praha | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +2 | 4 | LDW |
| 17 | Levski Sofia | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | WDL |
| 18 | Dinamo Zagreb | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 4 | LWD |
| 19 | Sturm Graz | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 4 | WLD |
| 20 | NEC Nijmegen | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -3 | 4 | WDL |
| 21 | Red Bull Salzburg | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -3 | 4 | DLW |
| 22 | Anderlecht | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 3 | WLL |
| 23 | 1899 Hoffenheim | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 | WLL |
| 24 | AC Milan | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 3 | LWL |
| 25 | Celta Vigo | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 3 | WLL |
| 26 | OFI | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 3 | LLW |
| 27 | Jagiellonia | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 3 | LWL |
| 28 | Torreense | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -3 | 3 | LLW |
| 29 | Celje | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -5 | 1 | DLL |
| 30 | Hapoel Beer Sheva | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -5 | 1 | LLD |
| 31 | Lillestrom | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -7 | 1 | LDL |
| 32 | Lech Poznan | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -8 | 1 | DLL |
| 33 | Plzen | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -5 | 0 | LLL |
| 34 | Marseille | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -5 | 0 | LLL |
| 35 | Celtic | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -6 | 0 | LLL |
| 36 | Ararat-Armenia | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -9 | 0 | LLL |
Top scorers
| # | Player | M | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  L. DionyOmonia Nicosia | 7 | 4 |
| 2 |  A. CissèAC Milan | 3 | 3 |
| 3 |  Yeremy PinoCrystal Palace | 3 | 3 |
| 4 |  Sergio GómezReal Sociedad | 3 | 3 |
| 5 |  K. ZachariassenFerencvarosi TC | 11 | 3 |
Season statistics
This season, all competitions we cover| Stat | Lech Poznan | Sunderland |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 2 | 2 |
| Wins | 1 | 1 |
| Draws | 0 | 0 |
| Losses | 1 | 1 |
| Goals for (avg) | 3 | 1 |
| Goals against (avg) | 2.5 | 1.5 |
| Clean sheets | 0 | 0 |
| Failed to score | 1 | 1 |
| Best win streak | 1 | 1 |
Recent goal lines
How many of each team's last 2 games went over the line
| Over 1.5 | 2/2 | 2/2 |
|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 | 2/2 | 1/2 |
| Over 3.5 | 2/2 | 0/2 |
| BTTS – yes | 1/2 | 1/2 |
Match preview
Lech Poznan host Sunderland in the Europa League (League Stage - 3) at Stadion Miejski, Poznan, with kick-off on Thursday, 22 October 2026 at 17:45 WAT.
Our prediction model makes Sunderland slight favourites, giving Lech Poznan a 26% chance of winning, 26% for the draw and 48% for Sunderland. Our tip is: Over 1.5.
Lech Poznan have taken 3 points from their last 2 games (1W 0D 1L). Sunderland have taken 3 points from their last 2 games (1W 0D 1L).
On the goals markets, we expect goals, with a 51% chance of over 2.5 and a 54% chance that both teams score.
- Competition
- Europe Europa League
- Date
- Thursday, 22 October 2026, 17:45 WAT
- Venue
- Stadion Miejski, Poznan
TodaysPrediction analysis team
Model-based football predictions. How our predictions work
Quick answers
When is Lech Poznan vs Sunderland?
Lech Poznan vs Sunderland kicks off on Thursday, 22 October 2026 at 17:45 West Africa Time.
Which competition is Lech Poznan vs Sunderland in?
The match is in the Europe Europa League.
Where are Lech Poznan and Sunderland in the table?
Lech Poznan are 32nd and Sunderland are 9th in the Europa League.
Who will win Lech Poznan vs Sunderland?
Our prediction is Over 1.5. Win probabilities: Lech Poznan 26%, draw 26%, Sunderland 48%.
Will both teams score in Lech Poznan vs Sunderland?
We estimate a 54% chance that both teams score, so our BTTS tip is Yes.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Lech Poznan vs Sunderland?
We estimate a 51% chance of three or more goals, so our tip is Over 2.5 goals.
Are these predictions guaranteed?
No. They are statistical estimates. A 70% tip should still lose about three times in ten, so only stake what you can afford to lose.
How often are predictions updated?
Predictions refresh automatically through the day as new data arrives, and every tip is marked right or wrong after full time.