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Ararat-Armenia vs AZ Alkmaar prediction

Ararat-Armenia vs AZ Alkmaar prediction for the Europa League on 22 Oct 2026: AZ Alkmaar to win (62%). Probabilities, betting markets, form, H2H and stats.

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Thursday22October 2026
Yesterday: 28/42 correct(67%)
Europa League · League Stage - 3
Ararat-ArmeniaAZ Alkmaar
0 - 4Full time · Thu 22 OctHT 0-2
Vazgen Sargsyan Republican Stadium, Yerevan

Match events

Ararat-ArmeniaAZ Alkmaar
  1. 21'Goal: Valdemar Byskov Andreasen
  2. Yellow card: Bruno WilsonFoul23'
  3. 27'Goal: Weslley Pinto BatistaAssist: Seiya Maikuma
  4. Yellow card: Armen AmbartsumyanFoul44'
  5. 45'Substitution: Ayoub OufkirOff: Ro Zangelo Daal

HT 0-2

  1. Substitution: Armen AmbartsumyanOff: Karen Muradyan57'
  2. 65'Substitution: Bendegúz KovácsOff: Mexx Meerdink
  3. 65'Substitution: Seiya MaikumaOff: Denso Kasius
  4. Substitution: Juan Andres BalantaOff: Bernardo Oliveira73'
  5. Substitution: Arayik EloyanOff: Sandro Lima73'
  6. Substitution: Edgar·GrigoryanOff: Bruno Pereira73'
  7. Substitution: Zhirayr ShaghoyanOff: Carlos Henrique França Freires73'
  8. 76'Goal: Weslley Pinto BatistaAssist: Ro Zangelo Daal
  9. 79'Goal: Mexx MeerdinkAssist: Weslley Pinto Batista
  10. 80'Substitution: Wesley HoedtOff: Rion Ichihara
  11. 80'Substitution: Valdemar Byskov AndreasenOff: Hessel de Wit

Our verdict

2 ✓

AZ Alkmaar to win

Bet365 1.53

62%

✓ This tip was correct · final score 0-4

Expected goals3.1

Win probability

1 · Ararat-Armenia17%
Fair odds 5.88
X · Draw21%
Fair odds 4.76
2 · AZ Alkmaar62%
Fair odds 1.61

Match statistics

  • 39%Possession61%
  • 0.42Expected goals (xG)1.70
  • 9Total shots17
  • 4Shots on target9
  • 3Shots off target7
  • 2Blocked shots1
  • 5Shots inside the box8
  • 5Corners6
  • 2Offsides0
  • 9Fouls15
  • 2Yellow cards0
  • 0Red cards0
  • 5Goalkeeper saves4
  • 366Passes572
  • 276Accurate passes496

Line-ups

Ararat-Armenia

4-2-3-1

Starting XI

  1. 98João BravimG
  2. 2Hugo OliveiraD
  3. 43Bruno WilsonD
  4. 47A. MalisD
  5. 16E. GrigoryanD
  6. 8J. BalantaM
  7. 17M. CarlierM
  8. 77A. SerobyanM
  9. 10A. AmbartsumyanM
  10. 7Z. ShaghoyanM
  11. 91Sandro LimaF

Substitutes

  1. 25A. NdourF
  2. 9A. EloyanM
  3. 5Luís FelipeD
  4. 14Bruno PereiraD
  5. 19K. MuradyanM
  6. 1A. NersesyanG
  7. 70B. OliveiraM
  8. 95FrançaF

Coach: Tulipa

AZ Alkmaar

4-3-3

Starting XI

  1. 28J. De BusserG
  2. 2S. MaikumaD
  3. 4L. SchoutenD
  4. 29W. HoedtD
  5. 34M. de WitD
  6. 6P. KoopmeinersM
  7. 17V. ByskovM
  8. 21D. KwakmanM
  9. 7Weslley PatatiF
  10. 18B. KovacsF
  11. 24A. OufkirF

Substitutes

  1. 75H. de WitM
  2. 14C. StengsM
  3. 12H. VerhulstG
  4. 1R. Owusu-OduroG
  5. 9M. MeerdinkF
  6. 30D. KasiusD
  7. 31R. IchiharaD
  8. 22E. DijkstraD
  9. 11R. DaalF
  10. 5M. ChávezD
  11. 27Wassim bouzianeF
  12. 54Jerolldino BergraafF

Coach: L. Echteld

Betting markets

Expected goals 1.01 – 2.10
0.5 goalsOver95.5%Under4.5%
1.5 goalsOver81.7%Under18.3%
2.5 goalsOver60.1%Under39.9%
3.5 goalsOver37.7%Under62.3%
4.5 goalsOver20.4%Under79.6%

Market percentages come from our model's expected goals for each side. Fair odds are 100 ÷ probability.

Model comparison

Ararat-ArmeniaAZ Alkmaar
0%Form100%
33%Attack67%
33%Defence67%
50%Head to head50%
32%Expected goals68%
22%Overall78%

Last matches

Newest first
Ararat-Armenia0W 0D 1L · last 1
LJagiellonia vs Ararat-Armenia15 Oct 2026 · Europa League3-1
AZ Alkmaar1W 1D 0L · last 2
DCambuur vs AZ Alkmaar18 Oct 2026 · Eredivisie2-2WAZ Alkmaar vs Hapoel Beer Sheva15 Oct 2026 · Europa League2-1

Europa League table

Europa League table
#TeamP+/-Pts
1Benfica3+89
2Bayer Leverkusen3+89
3Bournemouth3+79
4Ferencvarosi TC3+69
5Olympiakos Piraeus3+39
6Union St. Gilloise3+77
7Juventus3+67
8Beşiktaş3+47
9Sunderland3+27
10AZ Alkmaar3+46
11Omonia Nicosia3+16
12Lyon3-16
13Rennes3+15
14Real Sociedad3+54
15Crystal Palace3+34
16Sparta Praha3+24
17Levski Sofia304
18Dinamo Zagreb3-14
19Sturm Graz3-24
20NEC Nijmegen3-34
21Red Bull Salzburg3-34
22Anderlecht3+13
231899 Hoffenheim303
24AC Milan3-13
25Celta Vigo3-13
26OFI3-13
27Jagiellonia3-23
28Torreense3-33
29Celje3-51
30Hapoel Beer Sheva3-51
31Lillestrom3-71
32Lech Poznan3-81
33Plzen3-50
34Marseille3-50
35Celtic3-60
36Ararat-Armenia3-90
See full table ›

Top scorers

Europa League top scorers
#PlayerMGoals
1L. DionyOmonia Nicosia74
2A. CissèAC Milan33
3Yeremy PinoCrystal Palace33
4Sergio GómezReal Sociedad33
5K. ZachariassenFerencvarosi TC113

Season statistics

This season, all competitions we cover
StatArarat-ArmeniaAZ Alkmaar
Played12
Wins01
Draws01
Losses10
Goals for (avg)12
Goals against (avg)31.5
Clean sheets00
Failed to score00
Best win streak01

Recent goal lines

How many of each team's last 2 games went over the line

Over 1.51/12/2
Over 2.51/12/2
Over 3.51/11/2
BTTS – yes1/12/2

Match preview

Ararat-Armenia host AZ Alkmaar in the Europa League (League Stage - 3) at Vazgen Sargsyan Republican Stadium, Yerevan, with kick-off on Thursday, 22 October 2026 at 17:45 WAT.

Our prediction model makes AZ Alkmaar favourites, giving Ararat-Armenia a 17% chance of winning, 21% for the draw and 62% for AZ Alkmaar. Our tip is: AZ Alkmaar to win.

Ararat-Armenia have taken 0 points from their last 1 games (0W 0D 1L). AZ Alkmaar have taken 4 points from their last 2 games (1W 1D 0L).

On the goals markets, we expect goals, with a 60% chance of over 2.5 and a 56% chance that both teams score.

Competition
Europe Europa League
Date
Thursday, 22 October 2026, 17:45 WAT
Venue
Vazgen Sargsyan Republican Stadium, Yerevan

TodaysPrediction analysis team

Model-based football predictions. How our predictions work

Quick answers

When is Ararat-Armenia vs AZ Alkmaar?

Ararat-Armenia vs AZ Alkmaar kicks off on Thursday, 22 October 2026 at 17:45 West Africa Time.

Which competition is Ararat-Armenia vs AZ Alkmaar in?

The match is in the Europe Europa League.

Where are Ararat-Armenia and AZ Alkmaar in the table?

Ararat-Armenia are 36th and AZ Alkmaar are 10th in the Europa League.

Who will win Ararat-Armenia vs AZ Alkmaar?

Our prediction is AZ Alkmaar to win. Win probabilities: Ararat-Armenia 17%, draw 21%, AZ Alkmaar 62%.

Will both teams score in Ararat-Armenia vs AZ Alkmaar?

We estimate a 56% chance that both teams score, so our BTTS tip is Yes.

Will there be over 2.5 goals in Ararat-Armenia vs AZ Alkmaar?

We estimate a 60% chance of three or more goals, so our tip is Over 2.5 goals.

Are these predictions guaranteed?

No. They are statistical estimates. A 70% tip should still lose about three times in ten, so only stake what you can afford to lose.

How often are predictions updated?

Predictions refresh automatically through the day as new data arrives, and every tip is marked right or wrong after full time.

More Europa League on Thu 22 Oct

FTDinamo Zagreb 2-4 NEC Nijmegen1 ✗FTOFI 0-2 Bayer Leverkusen2 ✓FTFerencvarosi TC 4-1 Torreense1 ✓FTJuventus 2-2 Rennes1 ✗FTLech Poznan 1-1 SunderlandOver 1.5 ✓FTUnion St. Gilloise 4-0 Hapoel Beer Sheva1 ✓FTSturm Graz 1-0 MarseilleX2 ✗FTBeşiktaş 2-2 Crystal Palace12 ✗FTBournemouth 3-0 AC MilanOver 1.5 ✓FTCeltic 1-2 Celta VigoX2 ✓FT1899 Hoffenheim 3-0 Lyon12 ✓FTJagiellonia 0-3 AnderlechtX2 ✓FTOmonia Nicosia 1-4 Benfica2 ✓FTCelje 2-2 Red Bull Salzburg2 ✗FTLillestrom 0-6 Real Sociedad2 ✓FTOlympiakos Piraeus 1-0 Sparta Praha1 ✓FTPlzen 1-2 Levski SofiaOver 1.5 ✓

All football predictions for today