Skip to content
TodaysPrediction

AC Milan vs Atalanta prediction

AC Milan vs Atalanta prediction for the Serie A on 18 Oct 2026: Over 1.5 (76%). Probabilities, betting markets, form, H2H and stats.

Premier LeagueChampions LeagueLa LigaSerie ABundesligaAnd more

Sunday18October 2026
Yesterday: 52/66 correct(79%)
Serie A · Regular Season - 7
AC MilanAtalanta
3 - 2Full time · Sun 18 OctHT 2-0
San Siro/Giuseppe Meazza, Milan

Match events

AC MilanAtalanta
  1. VAR: Christian PulisicGoal cancelledVAR13'
  2. 20'Substitution: Sead KolašinacOff: Relja Obric
  3. VAR: Yunus MusahPenalty confirmedVAR22'
  4. Penalty goal: Gonçalo Ramos (pen)24'
  5. Yellow card: Adrien RabiotDissent41'
  6. Goal: Adrien RabiotAssist: Diego Moreira43'

HT 2-0

  1. Substitution: Samuel ChukwuezeOff: Omari Hutchinson53'
  2. VAR: Adrien RabiotPenalty confirmedVAR55'
  3. Missed penalty: Gonçalo Ramos57'
  4. Goal: Mario GilaAssist: Adrien Rabiot57'
  5. 59'Substitution: Mario PašalićOff: Gianluca Gaetano
  6. 59'Substitution: Jonathan RoweOff: Nicola Zalewski
  7. 66'Goal: Gianluca GaetanoAssist: Nicola Zalewski
  8. 68'Yellow card: Éderson José dos SantosFoul
  9. 75'Substitution: Lazar SamardzicOff: Gianluca Scamacca
  10. 75'Substitution: Lorenzo BernasconiOff: Davide Zappacosta
  11. Substitution: Christian PulisicOff: Ardon Jashari75'
  12. Substitution: Yunus MusahOff: Pervis Estupinan75'
  13. Substitution: Luka ModrićOff: Ruben Loftus-Cheek75'
  14. 78'Yellow card: Relja ObricFoul
  15. 81'Goal: Nikola KrstovićAssist: Raoul Bellanova
  16. Substitution: Fikayo TomoriOff: Mario Gila84'

Our verdict

Over 1.5 ✓

Over 1.5

Bet365 1.25

76%

✓ This tip was correct · final score 3-2

Expected goals2.7

Win probability

1 · AC Milan52%
Fair odds 1.92
X · Draw25%
Fair odds 4.00
2 · Atalanta23%
Fair odds 4.35

Match statistics

  • 56%Possession44%
  • 2.38Expected goals (xG)1.60
  • 11Total shots12
  • 6Shots on target4
  • 2Shots off target6
  • 3Blocked shots2
  • 7Shots inside the box6
  • 2Corners2
  • 1Offsides1
  • 3Fouls10
  • 1Yellow cards2
  • 0Red cards0
  • 2Goalkeeper saves3
  • 600Passes464
  • 547Accurate passes423

Line-ups

AC Milan

3-4-3

Starting XI

  1. 16M. MaignanG
  2. 34Mario GilaD
  3. 5K. De WinterD
  4. 31S. PavlovićD
  5. 21S. ChukwuezeM
  6. 80Y. MusahM
  7. 14L. ModrićM
  8. 22Diego MoreiraM
  9. 12A. RabiotF
  10. 9Gonçalo RamosF
  11. 11C. PulišićF

Substitutes

  1. 35V. VladimirovD
  2. 96L. TorrianiG
  3. 23F. TomoriD
  4. 42F. TerraccianoD
  5. 8R. Loftus-CheekM
  6. 30A. JashariM
  7. 20O. HutchinsonF
  8. 2P. EstupiñánD
  9. 13S. BocoumD
  10. 28C. ComottoM
  11. 70A. CissèM
  12. 73F. CamardaF
  13. 41L. P. BouyerG
  14. 33D. BartesaghiD

Coach: Ruben Amorim

Atalanta

4-3-3

Starting XI

  1. 29M. CarnesecchiG
  2. 16R. BellanovaD
  3. 31T. KristensenD
  4. 23S. KolašinacD
  5. 47L. BernasconiD
  6. 10L. SamardžićM
  7. 13ÉdersonM
  8. 8Mario PasalicM
  9. 17C. De KetelaereF
  10. 90N. KrstovićF
  11. 11J. RoweF

Substitutes

  1. 70G. GaetanoM
  2. 77D. ZappacostaD
  3. 41J. IdeleM
  4. 40R. ObrićD
  5. 53M. PlaiaD
  6. 9G. ScamaccaF
  7. 51M. SonzogniG
  8. 57M. SportielloG
  9. 59N. ZalewskiM
  10. 45D. PoungaM

Coach: M. Sarri

Betting markets

Expected goals 1.67 – 1.03
0.5 goalsOver93.3%Under6.7%
1.5 goalsOver75.1%Under24.9%
2.5 goalsOver50.6%Under49.4%
3.5 goalsOver28.6%Under71.4%
4.5 goalsOver13.7%Under86.3%

Market percentages come from our model's expected goals for each side. Fair odds are 100 ÷ probability.

Model comparison

AC MilanAtalanta
50%Form50%
57%Attack43%
83%Defence17%
50%Head to head50%
62%Expected goals38%
69%Overall31%

Last matches

Newest first
AC Milan1W 0D 0L · last 1
WRed Bull Salzburg vs AC Milan15 Oct 2026 · Europa League0-4
Atalanta1W 0D 0L · last 1
WAtalanta vs Pafos15 Oct 2026 · Conference League3-1

Serie A table

Serie A table
#TeamP+/-Pts
1Lazio10+1628
2Inter10+1325
3AS Roma10+1824
4Como10+1023
5AC Milan10+921
6Frosinone10+1020
7Juventus10+317
8Napoli10+414
9Bologna10+114
10Torino10-213
11Genoa10-413
12Cagliari10-613
13Atalanta9-111
14Lecce10-109
15Sassuolo9-88
16Monza10-77
17Fiorentina9-105
18Parma9-105
19Udinese10-125
20Venezia10-143
See full table ›

Top scorers

Serie A top scorers
#PlayerMGoals
1Gustavo VarelaMonza99
2D. MalenAS Roma98
3A. RaimondoFrosinone98
4N. KrstovićAtalanta96
5A. RabiotAC Milan85

Season statistics

This season, all competitions we cover
StatAC MilanAtalanta
Played11
Wins11
Draws00
Losses00
Goals for (avg)43
Goals against (avg)01
Clean sheets10
Failed to score00
Best win streak11

Recent goal lines

How many of each team's last 1 games went over the line

Over 1.51/11/1
Over 2.51/11/1
Over 3.51/11/1
BTTS – yes0/11/1

Match preview

AC Milan host Atalanta in the Serie A (Regular Season - 7) at San Siro/Giuseppe Meazza, Milan, with kick-off on Sunday, 18 October 2026 at 17:00 WAT.

Our prediction model makes AC Milan favourites, giving AC Milan a 52% chance of winning, 25% for the draw and 23% for Atalanta. Our tip is: Over 1.5.

AC Milan have taken 3 points from their last 1 games (1W 0D 0L). Atalanta have taken 3 points from their last 1 games (1W 0D 0L).

On the goals markets, we expect goals, with a 51% chance of over 2.5 and a 53% chance that both teams score.

Competition
Italy Serie A
Date
Sunday, 18 October 2026, 17:00 WAT
Venue
San Siro/Giuseppe Meazza, Milan

TodaysPrediction analysis team

Model-based football predictions. How our predictions work

Quick answers

When is AC Milan vs Atalanta?

AC Milan vs Atalanta kicks off on Sunday, 18 October 2026 at 17:00 West Africa Time.

Which competition is AC Milan vs Atalanta in?

The match is in the Italy Serie A.

Where are AC Milan and Atalanta in the table?

AC Milan are 5th and Atalanta are 13th in the Serie A.

Who will win AC Milan vs Atalanta?

Our prediction is Over 1.5. Win probabilities: AC Milan 52%, draw 25%, Atalanta 23%.

Will both teams score in AC Milan vs Atalanta?

We estimate a 53% chance that both teams score, so our BTTS tip is Yes.

Will there be over 2.5 goals in AC Milan vs Atalanta?

We estimate a 51% chance of three or more goals, so our tip is Over 2.5 goals.

Are these predictions guaranteed?

No. They are statistical estimates. A 70% tip should still lose about three times in ten, so only stake what you can afford to lose.

How often are predictions updated?

Predictions refresh automatically through the day as new data arrives, and every tip is marked right or wrong after full time.

More Serie A on Sun 18 Oct

FTUdinese 0-3 Lecce1X ✗FTFiorentina 1-3 ComoX2 ✓FTJuventus 0-3 Lazio1 ✗

All football predictions for today