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TodaysPrediction

Bournemouth vs Sturm Graz prediction

Bournemouth vs Sturm Graz prediction for the Europa League on 15 Oct 2026: Over 2.5 (68%). Probabilities, betting markets, form, H2H and stats.

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Thursday15October 2026
Yesterday: 52/66 correct(79%)
Europa League · League Stage - 2
BournemouthNo recent gamesSturm GrazNo recent games
3 - 0Full time · Thu 15 OctHT 1-0
Vitality Stadium, Bournemouth

Match events

BournemouthSturm Graz
  1. Yellow card: Francisco EvanilsonFoul14'
  2. 41'Yellow card: Belmin Beganovic
  3. Goal: Francisco EvanilsonAssist: Adam Smith43'

HT 1-0

  1. Yellow card: Bafode DiakiteFoul58'
  2. 61'Substitution: Belmin BeganovicOff: Oumar Diakité
  3. Substitution: Adam SmithOff: James Hill62'
  4. Yellow card: Julio SolerTime Wasting66'
  5. Substitution: Tyler AdamsOff: Ryan Christie69'
  6. Substitution: Francisco EvanilsonOff: Justin Kluivert70'
  7. Substitution: Marcus TavernierOff: Rayan Vitor Simplício Rocha70'
  8. 75'Substitution: Julian HalwachsOff: Jacob Peter Hödl
  9. 75'Substitution: Petar PetrovićOff: Albert Vallci
  10. 75'Substitution: Simon SeidlOff: Axel Kayombo
  11. Goal: Rayan Vitor Simplício Rocha76'
  12. 83'Substitution: Luis BalboOff: Paul Koller
  13. Substitution: Ben Gannon-DoakOff: Amine Adli84'
  14. 85'Yellow card: Julian HalwachsFoul
  15. 87'Yellow card: Albert VallciFoul
  16. Penalty goal: Álvaro Rodríguez (pen)90+2'

Our verdict

Over 2.5 ✓

Over 2.5

Bet365 1.30

68%

✓ This tip was correct · final score 3-0

Expected goals3.5

Win probability

1 · Bournemouth76%
Fair odds 1.32
X · Draw15%
Fair odds 6.67
2 · Sturm Graz9%
Fair odds 11.11

Match statistics

  • 62%Possession38%
  • 2.72Expected goals (xG)0.38
  • 24Total shots6
  • 8Shots on target1
  • 10Shots off target5
  • 6Blocked shots0
  • 14Shots inside the box4
  • 7Corners3
  • 1Offsides2
  • 11Fouls18
  • 3Yellow cards3
  • 0Red cards0
  • 1Goalkeeper saves3
  • 463Passes290
  • 382Accurate passes203

Line-ups

Bournemouth

4-4-2

Starting XI

  1. 1Đ. PetrovićG
  2. 15A. SmithD
  3. 18B. DiakitéD
  4. 14António SilvaD
  5. 6J. SolerD
  6. 11B. DoakM
  7. 4L. CookM
  8. 12T. AdamsM
  9. 16M. TavernierM
  10. 9EvanilsonF
  11. 30Á. RodríguezF

Substitutes

  1. 27A. TóthM
  2. 10R. ChristieM
  3. 7D. BrooksM
  4. 55M. AllanG
  5. 21A. AdliF
  6. 20M. Di GregorioG
  7. 5J. HillD
  8. 19J. KluivertF
  9. 37RayanF
  10. 3A. TruffertD

Coach: M. Rose

Sturm Graz

5-3-2

Starting XI

  1. 53D. KhudyakovG
  2. 28J. HeilD
  3. 23A. MalicD
  4. 2J. QuarshieD
  5. 21P. PetrovićD
  6. 27L. BalboD
  7. 78V. MatoshiM
  8. 4J. Gorenc StankovičM
  9. 43Jacob Peter HödlM
  10. 19S. SeidlF
  11. 26B. BeganovićF

Substitutes

  1. 39Luca WeinhandlM
  2. 5A. VallciD
  3. 41E. LorenzG
  4. 30P. KollerD
  5. 11A. KayomboF
  6. 22A. HelacG
  7. 40J. HalwachsM
  8. 14O. DiakitéF
  9. 25M. GrgicM
  10. 38Jonas PeinhartF
  11. 37J. PetritschD

Coach: F. Ingolitsch

Betting markets

Expected goals 2.68 – 0.84
0.5 goalsOver97.0%Under3.0%
1.5 goalsOver86.6%Under13.4%
2.5 goalsOver68.3%Under31.7%
3.5 goalsOver46.8%Under53.2%
4.5 goalsOver27.8%Under72.2%

Market percentages come from our model's expected goals for each side. Fair odds are 100 ÷ probability.

Model comparison

BournemouthSturm Graz
50%Form50%
50%Attack50%
50%Defence50%
50%Head to head50%
76%Expected goals24%
89%Overall11%

Last matches

Newest first
Bournemouth0W 0D 0L · last 0

No finished matches yet.

Sturm Graz0W 0D 0L · last 0

No finished matches yet.

Europa League table

Europa League table
#TeamP+/-Pts
1Benfica3+89
2Bayer Leverkusen3+89
3Bournemouth3+79
4Ferencvarosi TC3+69
5Olympiakos Piraeus3+39
6Union St. Gilloise3+77
7Juventus3+67
8Beşiktaş3+47
9Sunderland3+27
10AZ Alkmaar3+46
11Omonia Nicosia3+16
12Lyon3-16
13Rennes3+15
14Real Sociedad3+54
15Crystal Palace3+34
16Sparta Praha3+24
17Levski Sofia304
18Dinamo Zagreb3-14
19Sturm Graz3-24
20NEC Nijmegen3-34
21Red Bull Salzburg3-34
22Anderlecht3+13
231899 Hoffenheim303
24AC Milan3-13
25Celta Vigo3-13
26OFI3-13
27Jagiellonia3-23
28Torreense3-33
29Celje3-51
30Hapoel Beer Sheva3-51
31Lillestrom3-71
32Lech Poznan3-81
33Plzen3-50
34Marseille3-50
35Celtic3-60
36Ararat-Armenia3-90
See full table ›

Top scorers

Europa League top scorers
#PlayerMGoals
1L. DionyOmonia Nicosia74
2A. CissèAC Milan33
3Yeremy PinoCrystal Palace33
4Sergio GómezReal Sociedad33
5K. ZachariassenFerencvarosi TC113

Season statistics

This season, all competitions we cover
StatBournemouthSturm Graz
Played00
Wins00
Draws00
Losses00
Goals for (avg)00
Goals against (avg)00
Clean sheets00
Failed to score00
Best win streak00

Match preview

Bournemouth host Sturm Graz in the Europa League (League Stage - 2) at Vitality Stadium, Bournemouth, with kick-off on Thursday, 15 October 2026 at 20:00 WAT.

Our prediction model makes Bournemouth clear favourites, giving Bournemouth a 76% chance of winning, 15% for the draw and 9% for Sturm Graz. Our tip is: Over 2.5.

On the goals markets, we expect goals, with a 68% chance of over 2.5 and a 53% chance that both teams score.

Competition
Europe Europa League
Date
Thursday, 15 October 2026, 20:00 WAT
Venue
Vitality Stadium, Bournemouth

TodaysPrediction analysis team

Model-based football predictions. How our predictions work

Quick answers

When is Bournemouth vs Sturm Graz?

Bournemouth vs Sturm Graz kicks off on Thursday, 15 October 2026 at 20:00 West Africa Time.

Which competition is Bournemouth vs Sturm Graz in?

The match is in the Europe Europa League.

Where are Bournemouth and Sturm Graz in the table?

Bournemouth are 3rd and Sturm Graz are 19th in the Europa League.

Who will win Bournemouth vs Sturm Graz?

Our prediction is Over 2.5. Win probabilities: Bournemouth 76%, draw 15%, Sturm Graz 9%.

Will both teams score in Bournemouth vs Sturm Graz?

We estimate a 53% chance that both teams score, so our BTTS tip is Yes.

Will there be over 2.5 goals in Bournemouth vs Sturm Graz?

We estimate a 68% chance of three or more goals, so our tip is Over 2.5 goals.

Are these predictions guaranteed?

No. They are statistical estimates. A 70% tip should still lose about three times in ten, so only stake what you can afford to lose.

How often are predictions updated?

Predictions refresh automatically through the day as new data arrives, and every tip is marked right or wrong after full time.

More Europa League on Thu 15 Oct

FTTorreense 1-2 Sunderland2 ✓FTRed Bull Salzburg 0-4 AC MilanX2 ✓FTUnion St. Gilloise 1-1 Real Sociedad12 ✗FTLyon 3-2 Crystal Palace12 ✓FTLech Poznan 0-4 Bayer Leverkusen2 ✓FTCelje 0-3 Omonia NicosiaX2 ✓FTAZ Alkmaar 2-1 Hapoel Beer Sheva1 ✓FTSparta Praha 1-1 Lillestrom1 ✗FTBenfica 4-1 CelticOver 2.5 ✓FTCelta Vigo 1-2 JuventusX2 ✓FTRennes 2-1 OFI1 ✓FT1899 Hoffenheim 2-3 Beşiktaş1X ✗FTNEC Nijmegen 1-1 Levski SofiaOver 1.5 ✓FTFerencvarosi TC 2-1 PlzenOver 1.5 ✓FTDinamo Zagreb 1-0 AnderlechtOver 1.5 ✗FTJagiellonia 3-1 Ararat-Armenia1 ✓FTMarseille 0-1 Olympiakos PiraeusOver 1.5 ✗

All football predictions for today