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Lech Poznan vs Korona Kielce prediction

Lech Poznan vs Korona Kielce prediction for the Ekstraklasa on 18 Oct 2026: Lech Poznan to win (63%). Probabilities, betting markets, form, H2H and stats.

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Sunday18October 2026
Yesterday: 52/66 correct(79%)
Ekstraklasa · Regular Season - 11
Lech PoznanKorona KielceNo recent games
6 - 1Full time · Sun 18 OctHT 4-0
Stadion Poznan, Poznan

Match events

Lech PoznanKorona Kielce
  1. Goal: Patrick WalemarkAssist: Pablo Rodriguez Delgado4'
  2. Goal: Pablo Rodriguez DelgadoAssist: Joel Pereira6'
  3. Goal: Mikael IshakAssist: Pablo Rodriguez Delgado23'
  4. 29'Substitution: Ondrej LingrOff: Martin Remacle
  5. 45'Substitution: kamil jakubczykOff: Simon Gustafsson
  6. 45'Substitution: Marcel·PieczekOff: Konrad Matuszewski
  7. 45'Substitution: Michael AmeyawOff: Morgan Faßbender
  8. Yellow card: Radosław MurawskiPersistent Infringement45+2'
  9. Goal: Pablo Rodriguez DelgadoAssist: Mikael Ishak45+4'

HT 4-0

  1. Goal: Mikael IshakAssist: Pablo Rodriguez Delgado55'
  2. 57'Goal: Camilo MenaAssist: Wiktor Długosz
  3. Substitution: Patrick WalemarkOff: Daniel Håkans58'
  4. Substitution: Terry YegbeOff: Hubert Janyszka58'
  5. Substitution: Radosław MurawskiOff: Gustav Berggren58'
  6. Yellow card: Pablo Rodriguez DelgadoDissent61'
  7. 62'Substitution: Mariusz StępińskiOff: Daniel Bak
  8. Substitution: Pablo Rodriguez DelgadoOff: Filip Jagiełło68'
  9. 72'Yellow card: Daniel BakFoul
  10. Substitution: Mikael IshakOff: Y. Agnero76'
  11. 85'Yellow card: Slobodan RubezicFoul
  12. 90'Yellow card: Morgan FaßbenderFoul
  13. Goal: Y. AgneroAssist: Michal Gurgul90+1'

Our verdict

1 ✓

Lech Poznan to win

Bet365 1.44

63%

✓ This tip was correct · final score 6-1

Expected goals3.1

Win probability

1 · Lech Poznan63%
Fair odds 1.59
X · Draw21%
Fair odds 4.76
2 · Korona Kielce16%
Fair odds 6.25

Match statistics

  • 60%Possession40%
  • 2.32Expected goals (xG)1.25
  • 14Total shots15
  • 6Shots on target5
  • 5Shots off target7
  • 3Blocked shots3
  • 10Shots inside the box7
  • 5Corners7
  • 0Offsides1
  • 13Fouls13
  • 2Yellow cards3
  • 0Red cards0
  • 3Goalkeeper saves0
  • 530Passes340
  • 465Accurate passes282

Line-ups

Lech Poznan

4-2-3-1

Starting XI

  1. 1M. LisG
  2. 2Joel PereiraD
  3. 72M. SkrzypczakD
  4. 59T. YegbeD
  5. 15M. GurgulD
  6. 22R. MurawskiM
  7. 43A. KozubalM
  8. 10P. WålemarkM
  9. 21Pablo RodríguezM
  10. 77L. PalmaM
  11. 9M. IshakF

Substitutes

  1. 24F. JagiełłoM
  2. 55Piotr BartczakD
  3. 90H. JanyszkaD
  4. 11D. HåkansM
  5. 5G. BerggrenM
  6. 14L. BengtssonM
  7. 33M. PruchniewskiG
  8. 7Y. AgneroF

Coach: N. Frederiksen

Korona Kielce

4-2-3-1

Starting XI

  1. 1X. DziekońskiG
  2. 71W. DługoszD
  3. 23S. RubežićD
  4. 2A. MosórD
  5. 6M. PięczekD
  6. 35Kamil JakubczykM
  7. 18P. HellebrandM
  8. 30C. MenaM
  9. 32O. LingrM
  10. 19M. AmeyawM
  11. 14M. StępińskiF

Substitutes

  1. 86Simon GustafsonM
  2. 87R. MamlaG
  3. 11K. MatuszewskiD
  4. 10NonoM
  5. 8M. RemacleM
  6. 24B. SmolarczykD
  7. 44K. SotiriouD
  8. 99Daniel BakF
  9. 22M. FaßbenderF
  10. 67N. BarczakD
  11. 9S. DavidovićM

Coach: J. Zielinski

Betting markets

Expected goals 2.10 – 0.96
0.5 goalsOver95.3%Under4.7%
1.5 goalsOver81.0%Under19.0%
2.5 goalsOver59.0%Under41.0%
3.5 goalsOver36.6%Under63.4%
4.5 goalsOver19.5%Under80.5%

Market percentages come from our model's expected goals for each side. Fair odds are 100 ÷ probability.

Model comparison

Lech PoznanKorona Kielce
50%Form50%
50%Attack50%
5%Defence95%
50%Head to head50%
69%Expected goals31%
80%Overall20%

Last matches

Newest first
Lech Poznan0W 0D 1L · last 1
LLech Poznan vs Bayer Leverkusen15 Oct 2026 · Europa League0-4
Korona Kielce0W 0D 0L · last 0

No finished matches yet.

Ekstraklasa table

Ekstraklasa table
#TeamP+/-Pts
1Lech Poznan12+2131
2Gornik Zabrze13+1028
3Legia Warszawa13+1224
4Pogon Szczecin11+1024
5GKS Katowice13+621
6Piast Gliwice13+421
7Wisla Krakow13+221
8Zaglebie Lubin12019
9Jagiellonia12-118
10Korona Kielce12-418
11Motor Lublin13-316
12Wisla Plock12-615
13Cracovia Krakow13-612
14Widzew Łódź13-211
15Slask Wroclaw12-69
16Wieczysta Kraków13-98
17Radomiak Radom12-168
18Raków Częstochowa12-126
See full table ›

Top scorers

Ekstraklasa top scorers
#PlayerMGoals
1Jordi SánchezPogon Szczecin129
2I. ShkurinGKS Katowice138
3B. NowakGKS Katowice137
4Pablo RodríguezLech Poznan126
5P. WålemarkLech Poznan126

Season statistics

This season, all competitions we cover
StatLech PoznanKorona Kielce
Played10
Wins00
Draws00
Losses10
Goals for (avg)00
Goals against (avg)40
Clean sheets00
Failed to score10
Best win streak00

Recent goal lines

How many of each team's last 1 games went over the line

Over 1.51/10/0
Over 2.51/10/0
Over 3.51/10/0
BTTS – yes0/10/0

Match preview

Lech Poznan host Korona Kielce in the Ekstraklasa (Regular Season - 11) at Stadion Poznan, Poznan, with kick-off on Sunday, 18 October 2026 at 16:30 WAT.

Our prediction model makes Lech Poznan favourites, giving Lech Poznan a 63% chance of winning, 21% for the draw and 16% for Korona Kielce. Our tip is: Lech Poznan to win.

Lech Poznan have taken 0 points from their last 1 games (0W 0D 1L).

On the goals markets, we expect goals, with a 59% chance of over 2.5 and a 55% chance that both teams score.

Competition
Poland Ekstraklasa
Date
Sunday, 18 October 2026, 16:30 WAT
Venue
Stadion Poznan, Poznan

TodaysPrediction analysis team

Model-based football predictions. How our predictions work

Quick answers

When is Lech Poznan vs Korona Kielce?

Lech Poznan vs Korona Kielce kicks off on Sunday, 18 October 2026 at 16:30 West Africa Time.

Which competition is Lech Poznan vs Korona Kielce in?

The match is in the Poland Ekstraklasa.

Where are Lech Poznan and Korona Kielce in the table?

Lech Poznan are 1st and Korona Kielce are 10th in the Ekstraklasa.

Who will win Lech Poznan vs Korona Kielce?

Our prediction is Lech Poznan to win. Win probabilities: Lech Poznan 63%, draw 21%, Korona Kielce 16%.

Will both teams score in Lech Poznan vs Korona Kielce?

We estimate a 55% chance that both teams score, so our BTTS tip is Yes.

Will there be over 2.5 goals in Lech Poznan vs Korona Kielce?

We estimate a 59% chance of three or more goals, so our tip is Over 2.5 goals.

Are these predictions guaranteed?

No. They are statistical estimates. A 70% tip should still lose about three times in ten, so only stake what you can afford to lose.

How often are predictions updated?

Predictions refresh automatically through the day as new data arrives, and every tip is marked right or wrong after full time.

More Ekstraklasa on Sun 18 Oct

FTGornik Zabrze 1-1 Piast Gliwice1 ✗FTZaglebie Lubin 1-0 JagielloniaOver 1.5 ✗

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