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Legia Warszawa vs Lech Poznan prediction

Legia Warszawa vs Lech Poznan prediction for the Ekstraklasa on 25 Oct 2026: Over 1.5 (79%). Probabilities, betting markets, form, H2H and stats.

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Sunday25October 2026
Yesterday: 52/66 correct(79%)
Ekstraklasa · Regular Season - 12
Legia WarszawaNo recent gamesLech Poznan
1 - 2Full time · Sun 25 OctHT 0-0
Polish Army Stadium, Warsaw

Match events

Legia WarszawaLech Poznan
  1. 14'Substitution: Mikael IshakOff: Y. Agnero
  2. Yellow card: Paweł WszołekFoul15'
  3. Substitution: Rafal AdamskiOff: Mateusz Szczepaniak29'
  4. Substitution: Paweł WszołekOff: Rúben Vinagre45'

HT 0-0

  1. 56'Goal: Y. AgneroAssist: Leo Bengtsson
  2. 60'Yellow card: Terry YegbeFoul
  3. 66'Yellow card: Leo BengtssonFoul
  4. Substitution: Kacper ChodynaOff: Shinnosuke Fukuda67'
  5. 67'Substitution: Patrick WalemarkOff: Luis Palma
  6. 67'Substitution: Pablo Rodriguez DelgadoOff: Filip Jagiełło
  7. Substitution: Michal SevcikOff: Bogdan V'Yunnik67'
  8. 67'Substitution: Leo BengtssonOff: Daniel Håkans
  9. Yellow card: Bartosz KapustkaFoul71'
  10. Goal: Bogdan V'YunnikAssist: Rafał Augustyniak74'
  11. 81'Substitution: antoni kozubalOff: Gustav Berggren
  12. Substitution: Wojciech UrbanskiOff: Damian Szymański85'
  13. 87'Goal: Luis PalmaAssist: Daniel Håkans

Our verdict

Over 1.5 ✓

Over 1.5

Bet365 1.20

79%

✓ This tip was correct · final score 1-2

Expected goals2.9

Win probability

1 · Legia Warszawa38%
Fair odds 2.63
X · Draw26%
Fair odds 3.85
2 · Lech Poznan36%
Fair odds 2.78

Match statistics

  • 56%Possession44%
  • 1.41Expected goals (xG)1.30
  • 17Total shots11
  • 9Shots on target5
  • 4Shots off target3
  • 4Blocked shots3
  • 11Shots inside the box7
  • 9Corners5
  • 2Offsides0
  • 15Fouls12
  • 2Yellow cards2
  • 0Red cards0
  • 2Goalkeeper saves8
  • 479Passes381
  • 405Accurate passes309

Line-ups

Legia Warszawa

3-4-3

Starting XI

  1. 89O. HindrichG
  2. 91K. PiątkowskiD
  3. 8R. AugustyniakD
  4. 5Robert DezielD
  5. 22P. WszołekM
  6. 53W. UrbańskiM
  7. 67B. KapustkaM
  8. 11K. ChodynaM
  9. 23M. ŠevčíkF
  10. 79Ł. ZjawińskiF
  11. 9R. AdamskiF

Substitutes

  1. 1I. BrkićG
  2. 4D. SzymańskiM
  3. 14A. ČolakF
  4. 19Rúben VinagreD
  5. 17M. SzczepaniakM
  6. 27Bogdan V'YunnikF
  7. 13A. RecaD
  8. 7J. KuchtaF
  9. 2S. FukudaD
  10. 6Henrique ArreiolM
  11. 24Z. ArsenićD

Coach: M. Papszun

Lech Poznan

4-4-2

Starting XI

  1. 1M. LisG
  2. 2Joel PereiraD
  3. 72M. SkrzypczakD
  4. 59T. YegbeD
  5. 15M. GurgulD
  6. 10P. WålemarkM
  7. 22R. MurawskiM
  8. 43A. KozubalM
  9. 14L. BengtssonM
  10. 9M. IshakF
  11. 21Pablo RodríguezF

Substitutes

  1. 56W. SzymczakF
  2. 33M. PruchniewskiG
  3. 77L. PalmaM
  4. 31Wiktor ObremskiG
  5. 24F. JagiełłoM
  6. 11D. HåkansM
  7. 5G. BerggrenM
  8. 55Piotr BartczakD
  9. 7Y. AgneroF
  10. 90H. JanyszkaD

Coach: N. Frederiksen

Betting markets

Expected goals 1.47 – 1.44
0.5 goalsOver94.6%Under5.4%
1.5 goalsOver78.7%Under21.3%
2.5 goalsOver55.6%Under44.4%
3.5 goalsOver33.3%Under66.7%
4.5 goalsOver17.0%Under83.0%

Market percentages come from our model's expected goals for each side. Fair odds are 100 ÷ probability.

Model comparison

Legia WarszawaLech Poznan
0%Form100%
0%Attack100%
91%Defence9%
50%Head to head50%
51%Expected goals49%
51%Overall49%

Last matches

Newest first
Legia Warszawa0W 0D 0L · last 0

No finished matches yet.

Lech Poznan1W 1D 1L · last 3
DLech Poznan vs Sunderland22 Oct 2026 · Europa League1-1WLech Poznan vs Korona Kielce18 Oct 2026 · Ekstraklasa6-1LLech Poznan vs Bayer Leverkusen15 Oct 2026 · Europa League0-4

Ekstraklasa table

Ekstraklasa table
#TeamP+/-Pts
1Lech Poznan12+2131
2Gornik Zabrze13+1028
3Legia Warszawa13+1224
4Pogon Szczecin11+1024
5GKS Katowice13+621
6Piast Gliwice13+421
7Wisla Krakow13+221
8Zaglebie Lubin12019
9Jagiellonia12-118
10Korona Kielce12-418
11Motor Lublin13-316
12Wisla Plock12-615
13Cracovia Krakow13-612
14Widzew Łódź13-211
15Slask Wroclaw12-69
16Wieczysta Kraków13-98
17Radomiak Radom12-168
18Raków Częstochowa12-126
See full table ›

Top scorers

Ekstraklasa top scorers
#PlayerMGoals
1Jordi SánchezPogon Szczecin129
2I. ShkurinGKS Katowice138
3B. NowakGKS Katowice137
4Pablo RodríguezLech Poznan126
5P. WålemarkLech Poznan126

Season statistics

This season, all competitions we cover
StatLegia WarszawaLech Poznan
Played03
Wins01
Draws01
Losses01
Goals for (avg)02.3
Goals against (avg)02
Clean sheets00
Failed to score01
Best win streak01

Recent goal lines

How many of each team's last 3 games went over the line

Over 1.50/03/3
Over 2.50/02/3
Over 3.50/02/3
BTTS – yes0/02/3

Match preview

Legia Warszawa host Lech Poznan in the Ekstraklasa (Regular Season - 12) at Polish Army Stadium, Warsaw, with kick-off on Sunday, 25 October 2026 at 17:30 WAT.

Our prediction model makes Legia Warszawa narrow favourites, giving Legia Warszawa a 38% chance of winning, 26% for the draw and 36% for Lech Poznan. Our tip is: Over 1.5.

Lech Poznan have taken 4 points from their last 3 games (1W 1D 1L).

On the goals markets, we expect goals, with a 56% chance of over 2.5 and a 59% chance that both teams score.

Competition
Poland Ekstraklasa
Date
Sunday, 25 October 2026, 17:30 WAT
Venue
Polish Army Stadium, Warsaw

TodaysPrediction analysis team

Model-based football predictions. How our predictions work

Quick answers

When is Legia Warszawa vs Lech Poznan?

Legia Warszawa vs Lech Poznan kicks off on Sunday, 25 October 2026 at 17:30 West Africa Time.

Which competition is Legia Warszawa vs Lech Poznan in?

The match is in the Poland Ekstraklasa.

Where are Legia Warszawa and Lech Poznan in the table?

Legia Warszawa are 3rd and Lech Poznan are 1st in the Ekstraklasa.

Who will win Legia Warszawa vs Lech Poznan?

Our prediction is Over 1.5. Win probabilities: Legia Warszawa 38%, draw 26%, Lech Poznan 36%.

Will both teams score in Legia Warszawa vs Lech Poznan?

We estimate a 59% chance that both teams score, so our BTTS tip is Yes.

Will there be over 2.5 goals in Legia Warszawa vs Lech Poznan?

We estimate a 56% chance of three or more goals, so our tip is Over 2.5 goals.

Are these predictions guaranteed?

No. They are statistical estimates. A 70% tip should still lose about three times in ten, so only stake what you can afford to lose.

How often are predictions updated?

Predictions refresh automatically through the day as new data arrives, and every tip is marked right or wrong after full time.

More Ekstraklasa on Sun 25 Oct

FTSlask Wroclaw 2-0 Wieczysta KrakówX2 ✗FTJagiellonia 1-0 Wisla PlockOver 1.5 ✗

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