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Jagiellonia vs Ararat-Armenia prediction

Jagiellonia vs Ararat-Armenia prediction for the Europa League on 15 Oct 2026: Jagiellonia to win (65%). Probabilities, betting markets, form, H2H and stats.

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Thursday15October 2026
Yesterday: 52/66 correct(79%)
Europa League · League Stage - 2
JagielloniaNo recent gamesArarat-ArmeniaNo recent games
3 - 1Full time · Thu 15 OctHT 2-1
Stadion Miejski w Białymstoku, Bialystok

Match events

JagielloniaArarat-Armenia
  1. 11'Goal: Zidane BanjaquiAssist: Maxence Carlier
  2. Goal: Kamil Jóźwiak13'
  3. 17'Substitution: Zhirayr ShaghoyanOff: Zidane Banjaqui
  4. Yellow card: Taras RomanczukFoul20'
  5. 30'Yellow card: Bruno WilsonFoul
  6. Goal: Rodrigo ConceiçãoAssist: Ferslev Anders Klynge38'

HT 2-1

  1. 49'Yellow card: Manuel Jorge da Silva CruzDissent
  2. Goal: Ousmane SowAssist: Jesús Imaz51'
  3. 57'Yellow card: Elvin TeraFoul
  4. Substitution: Ousmane SowOff: Jeremy Agbonifo66'
  5. 68'Substitution: Elvin TeraOff: Bernardo Oliveira Dias
  6. 68'Substitution: Luís Felipe Fernandes RodriguesOff: Karen Muradyan
  7. Substitution: Kamil JóźwiakOff: Dušan Stojinović68'
  8. Substitution: Eryk KozlowskiOff: Jesús Imaz68'
  9. 76'Substitution: Arayik EloyanOff: Sandro Lima
  10. 76'Substitution: Artur SerobyanOff: Carlos Henrique França Freires
  11. Substitution: Kajetan·SzmytOff: Aleksandar·Cirkovic79'
  12. Substitution: Taras RomanczukOff: Sergio Lozano80'
  13. Yellow card: Dušan StojinovićTime Wasting83'
  14. Yellow card: Eryk KozlowskiTime Wasting84'

Our verdict

1 ✓

Jagiellonia to win

Bet365 1.45

65%

✓ This tip was correct · final score 3-1

Expected goals3.1

Win probability

1 · Jagiellonia65%
Fair odds 1.54
X · Draw20%
Fair odds 5.00
2 · Ararat-Armenia15%
Fair odds 6.67

Match statistics

  • 43%Possession57%
  • 1.61Expected goals (xG)0.99
  • 14Total shots15
  • 5Shots on target4
  • 5Shots off target7
  • 4Blocked shots4
  • 9Shots inside the box7
  • 2Corners3
  • 6Offsides0
  • 22Fouls14
  • 3Yellow cards2
  • 0Red cards0
  • 3Goalkeeper saves2
  • 385Passes524
  • 328Accurate passes465

Line-ups

Jagiellonia

4-4-2

Starting XI

  1. 50S. AbramowiczG
  2. 27Rodrigo ConceiçãoD
  3. 5Bernardo VitalD
  4. 4Y. KobayashiD
  5. 20B. WdowikD
  6. 72K. JóźwiakM
  7. 6T. RomanczukM
  8. 19A. KlyngeM
  9. 7K. SzmytM
  10. 11Jesús ImazF
  11. 30O. SowF

Substitutes

  1. 10J. AgbonifoF
  2. 32A. ĆirkovićF
  3. 14H. FinndellM
  4. 44A. KonstantopoulosD
  5. 21Sergio LozanoM
  6. 23Guilherme Manuel Serrão MontóiaD
  7. 1M. PerchelG
  8. 3D. StojinovićD
  9. 85Eryk KozlowskiM

Coach: A. Siemieniec

Ararat-Armenia

3-4-3

Starting XI

  1. 98João BravimG
  2. 43Bruno WilsonD
  3. 17M. CarlierD
  4. 5Luís FelipeD
  5. 2Hugo OliveiraM
  6. 8J. BalantaM
  7. 20A. TeraM
  8. 16E. GrigoryanM
  9. 77A. SerobyanF
  10. 91Sandro LimaF
  11. 11Zidane BanjaquiF

Substitutes

  1. 10A. AmbartsumyanM
  2. 7Z. ShaghoyanF
  3. 14Bruno PereiraD
  4. 25A. NdourF
  5. 19K. MuradyanM
  6. 47A. MalisD
  7. 95FrançaF
  8. 9A. EloyanM
  9. 70Bernardo Oliveira DiasM
  10. 1A. NersesyanG

Coach: Tulipa

Betting markets

Expected goals 2.17 – 0.94
0.5 goalsOver95.5%Under4.5%
1.5 goalsOver81.7%Under18.3%
2.5 goalsOver60.1%Under39.9%
3.5 goalsOver37.7%Under62.3%
4.5 goalsOver20.4%Under79.6%

Market percentages come from our model's expected goals for each side. Fair odds are 100 ÷ probability.

Model comparison

JagielloniaArarat-Armenia
50%Form50%
50%Attack50%
50%Defence50%
50%Head to head50%
70%Expected goals30%
81%Overall19%

Last matches

Newest first
Jagiellonia0W 0D 0L · last 0

No finished matches yet.

Ararat-Armenia0W 0D 0L · last 0

No finished matches yet.

Europa League table

Europa League table
#TeamP+/-Pts
1Benfica3+89
2Bayer Leverkusen3+89
3Bournemouth3+79
4Ferencvarosi TC3+69
5Olympiakos Piraeus3+39
6Union St. Gilloise3+77
7Juventus3+67
8Beşiktaş3+47
9Sunderland3+27
10AZ Alkmaar3+46
11Omonia Nicosia3+16
12Lyon3-16
13Rennes3+15
14Real Sociedad3+54
15Crystal Palace3+34
16Sparta Praha3+24
17Levski Sofia304
18Dinamo Zagreb3-14
19Sturm Graz3-24
20NEC Nijmegen3-34
21Red Bull Salzburg3-34
22Anderlecht3+13
231899 Hoffenheim303
24AC Milan3-13
25Celta Vigo3-13
26OFI3-13
27Jagiellonia3-23
28Torreense3-33
29Celje3-51
30Hapoel Beer Sheva3-51
31Lillestrom3-71
32Lech Poznan3-81
33Plzen3-50
34Marseille3-50
35Celtic3-60
36Ararat-Armenia3-90
See full table ›

Top scorers

Europa League top scorers
#PlayerMGoals
1L. DionyOmonia Nicosia74
2A. CissèAC Milan33
3Yeremy PinoCrystal Palace33
4Sergio GómezReal Sociedad33
5K. ZachariassenFerencvarosi TC113

Season statistics

This season, all competitions we cover
StatJagielloniaArarat-Armenia
Played00
Wins00
Draws00
Losses00
Goals for (avg)00
Goals against (avg)00
Clean sheets00
Failed to score00
Best win streak00

Match preview

Jagiellonia host Ararat-Armenia in the Europa League (League Stage - 2) at Stadion Miejski w Białymstoku, Bialystok, with kick-off on Thursday, 15 October 2026 at 20:00 WAT.

Our prediction model makes Jagiellonia clear favourites, giving Jagiellonia a 65% chance of winning, 20% for the draw and 15% for Ararat-Armenia. Our tip is: Jagiellonia to win.

On the goals markets, we expect goals, with a 60% chance of over 2.5 and a 55% chance that both teams score.

Competition
Europe Europa League
Date
Thursday, 15 October 2026, 20:00 WAT
Venue
Stadion Miejski w Białymstoku, Bialystok

TodaysPrediction analysis team

Model-based football predictions. How our predictions work

Quick answers

When is Jagiellonia vs Ararat-Armenia?

Jagiellonia vs Ararat-Armenia kicks off on Thursday, 15 October 2026 at 20:00 West Africa Time.

Which competition is Jagiellonia vs Ararat-Armenia in?

The match is in the Europe Europa League.

Where are Jagiellonia and Ararat-Armenia in the table?

Jagiellonia are 27th and Ararat-Armenia are 36th in the Europa League.

Who will win Jagiellonia vs Ararat-Armenia?

Our prediction is Jagiellonia to win. Win probabilities: Jagiellonia 65%, draw 20%, Ararat-Armenia 15%.

Will both teams score in Jagiellonia vs Ararat-Armenia?

We estimate a 55% chance that both teams score, so our BTTS tip is Yes.

Will there be over 2.5 goals in Jagiellonia vs Ararat-Armenia?

We estimate a 60% chance of three or more goals, so our tip is Over 2.5 goals.

Are these predictions guaranteed?

No. They are statistical estimates. A 70% tip should still lose about three times in ten, so only stake what you can afford to lose.

How often are predictions updated?

Predictions refresh automatically through the day as new data arrives, and every tip is marked right or wrong after full time.

More Europa League on Thu 15 Oct

FTTorreense 1-2 Sunderland2 ✓FTRed Bull Salzburg 0-4 AC MilanX2 ✓FTUnion St. Gilloise 1-1 Real Sociedad12 ✗FTLyon 3-2 Crystal Palace12 ✓FTLech Poznan 0-4 Bayer Leverkusen2 ✓FTCelje 0-3 Omonia NicosiaX2 ✓FTAZ Alkmaar 2-1 Hapoel Beer Sheva1 ✓FTSparta Praha 1-1 Lillestrom1 ✗FTBenfica 4-1 CelticOver 2.5 ✓FTCelta Vigo 1-2 JuventusX2 ✓FTRennes 2-1 OFI1 ✓FTBournemouth 3-0 Sturm GrazOver 2.5 ✓FT1899 Hoffenheim 2-3 Beşiktaş1X ✗FTNEC Nijmegen 1-1 Levski SofiaOver 1.5 ✓FTFerencvarosi TC 2-1 PlzenOver 1.5 ✓FTDinamo Zagreb 1-0 AnderlechtOver 1.5 ✗FTMarseille 0-1 Olympiakos PiraeusOver 1.5 ✗

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