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FC Thun vs HNK Hajduk Split prediction

FC Thun vs HNK Hajduk Split prediction for the Conference League on 22 Oct 2026: HNK Hajduk Split or draw (68%). Probabilities, betting markets, form, H2H and stats.

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Thursday22October 2026
Yesterday: 28/42 correct(67%)
Conference League · League Stage - 2
FC ThunHNK Hajduk Split
0 - 1Full time · Thu 22 OctHT 0-1
Stockhorn Arena, Thun

Match events

FC ThunHNK Hajduk Split
  1. 17'Goal: D. de Almeida

HT 0-1

  1. 47'Yellow card: A. del MoralFoul
  2. Yellow card: J. RothHolding56'
  3. 64'Yellow card: D. MaresicUnsportsmanlike conduct
  4. 67'Missed penalty: M. Sego
  5. Substitution: F. DursunOff: N. Christoffersson70'
  6. Substitution: N. MaierOff: N. Zoukit70'
  7. 70'Substitution: M. SoticekOff: D. Melnjak
  8. Yellow card: N. ReichmuthHolding73'
  9. Substitution: J. RothOff: D. Derbaci77'
  10. Substitution: B. LabeauOff: R. Braschi77'
  11. 78'Substitution: M. SegoOff: M. Livaja
  12. 78'Substitution: A. del MoralOff: L. Dendoncker
  13. Substitution: N. ReichmuthOff: S. Lengen83'
  14. 84'Substitution: K. FayadOff: A. Van Hoorenbeeck
  15. 84'Substitution: A. SanyangOff: C. Martin

Our verdict

X2 ✓

HNK Hajduk Split or draw

Bet365 1.40

68%

✓ This tip was correct · final score 0-1

Expected goals3.0

Win probability

1 · FC Thun32%
Fair odds 3.13
X · Draw25%
Fair odds 4.00
2 · HNK Hajduk Split43%
Fair odds 2.33

Match statistics

  • 52%Possession48%
  • 1.28Expected goals (xG)1.28
  • 11Total shots10
  • 3Shots on target4
  • 5Shots off target5
  • 3Blocked shots1
  • 8Shots inside the box4
  • 2Corners3
  • 3Offsides3
  • 23Fouls14
  • 2Yellow cards2
  • 3Goalkeeper saves3
  • 351Passes340
  • 241Accurate passes239
  • 69%Pass accuracy70%

Line-ups

FC Thun

4-4-2

Starting XI

  1. 1Niklas SteffenG
  2. 47Fabio FehrD
  3. 23Marco BürkiD
  4. 19Jan BamertD
  5. 2Olivier MambwaD
  6. 70Nils ReichmuthM
  7. 16Justin RothM
  8. 14Mattias KäitM
  9. 30Nico MaierM
  10. 96Brighton LabeauF
  11. 9Furkan DursunF

Substitutes

  1. 22Dario WaltiG
  2. 25Tim SpycherG
  3. 5Nicolas BürgyD
  4. 18Tom StrannegårdM
  5. 37Lucien DählerD
  6. 54Louis PassavantD
  7. 13Nassim ZoukitM
  8. 21Dorian DerbaciM
  9. 52Adam IlicM
  10. 20Riccardo BraschiF
  11. 26Noah ChristofferssonF
  12. 80Simon LengenF

HNK Hajduk Split

4-2-3-1

Starting XI

  1. 33Toni SilićG
  2. 22Mathieu AcapandiéD
  3. 6Dennis HadžikadunićD
  4. 15Dario MarešićD
  5. 32Šimun HrgovićD
  6. 8Khalil FayadM
  7. 20Alberto del MoralM
  8. 7Abdoulie Sanyang BambaM
  9. 9Dalisson de AlmeidaM
  10. 23Marin ŠotičekM
  11. 11Michele ŠegoF

Substitutes

  1. 99Davyd FesyukG
  2. 44Dante StipicaG
  3. 3Roko GabrićD
  4. 5Alec Van HoorenbeeckD
  5. 14Ron RaçiD
  6. 17Dario MelnjakD
  7. 16Anđelo ŠutaloM
  8. 18Leander DendonckerM
  9. 26Adam HuramM
  10. 19Etnik BrrutiM
  11. 77Carlos MartínF
  12. 10Marko LivajaF

Betting markets

Expected goals 1.39 – 1.65
0.5 goalsOver95.2%Under4.8%
1.5 goalsOver80.7%Under19.3%
2.5 goalsOver58.6%Under41.4%
3.5 goalsOver36.2%Under63.8%
4.5 goalsOver19.2%Under80.8%

Market percentages come from our model's expected goals for each side. Fair odds are 100 ÷ probability.

Model comparison

FC ThunHNK Hajduk Split
0%Form100%
0%Attack100%
33%Defence67%
50%Head to head50%
46%Expected goals54%
43%Overall57%

Last matches

Newest first
FC Thun0W 0D 1L · last 1
LTwente vs FC Thun15 Oct 2026 · Conference League1-0
HNK Hajduk Split2W 0D 0L · last 2
WHNK Hajduk Split vs NK Varazdin18 Oct 2026 · HNL1-0WHNK Hajduk Split vs Ajax15 Oct 2026 · Conference League2-1

Conference League table

Conference League table
#TeamP+/-Pts
1Panathinaikos2+56
2FC Lugano2+46
3Brann2+46
4Trabzonspor2+46
5Twente2+46
6Monaco2+46
7St. Truiden2+36
8HNK Hajduk Split2+26
9Brighton2+44
10FC Copenhagen2+34
11Universitatea Craiova2+24
12Mjallby AIF2+24
13Ajax2+13
14Borac Banja Luka2+13
15Atalanta203
16SC Braga2-13
17Gent2-13
18SC Freiburg2-23
19FC Nordsjaelland202
20Egnatia Rrogozhinë202
21Riga202
22FK Crvena Zvezda2-11
23CSKA Sofia2-11
24FK Jablonec2-11
25FC Midtjylland2-11
26Aarhus2-11
27Pafos2-21
28Heart Of Midlothian2-21
29FC Iberia 19992-21
30Getafe2-31
31Kairat Almaty2-41
32FC Thun2-20
33Lincoln Red Imps FC2-40
34KuPS2-40
35Inter Club d'Escaldes2-40
36Kauno Žalgiris2-70
See full table ›

Top scorers

Conference League top scorers
#PlayerMGoals
1K. BehrensFC Lugano87
2Winsley Boteli MokangoFC Sion67
3C. DessersPanathinaikos56
4A. CorneliusFC Copenhagen75
5D. KlaassenAjax75

Season statistics

This season, all competitions we cover
StatFC ThunHNK Hajduk Split
Played12
Wins02
Draws00
Losses10
Goals for (avg)01.5
Goals against (avg)10.5
Clean sheets01
Failed to score10
Best win streak02

Recent goal lines

How many of each team's last 2 games went over the line

Over 1.50/11/2
Over 2.50/11/2
Over 3.50/10/2
BTTS – yes0/11/2

Match preview

FC Thun host HNK Hajduk Split in the Conference League (League Stage - 2) at Stockhorn Arena, Thun, with kick-off on Thursday, 22 October 2026 at 20:00 WAT.

Our prediction model makes HNK Hajduk Split slight favourites, giving FC Thun a 32% chance of winning, 25% for the draw and 43% for HNK Hajduk Split. Our tip is: HNK Hajduk Split or draw.

FC Thun have taken 0 points from their last 1 games (0W 0D 1L). HNK Hajduk Split have taken 6 points from their last 2 games (2W 0D 0L).

On the goals markets, we expect goals, with a 59% chance of over 2.5 and a 61% chance that both teams score.

Competition
Europe Conference League
Date
Thursday, 22 October 2026, 20:00 WAT
Venue
Stockhorn Arena, Thun

TodaysPrediction analysis team

Model-based football predictions. How our predictions work

Quick answers

When is FC Thun vs HNK Hajduk Split?

FC Thun vs HNK Hajduk Split kicks off on Thursday, 22 October 2026 at 20:00 West Africa Time.

Which competition is FC Thun vs HNK Hajduk Split in?

The match is in the Europe Conference League.

Where are FC Thun and HNK Hajduk Split in the table?

FC Thun are 32nd and HNK Hajduk Split are 8th in the Conference League.

Who will win FC Thun vs HNK Hajduk Split?

Our prediction is HNK Hajduk Split or draw. Win probabilities: FC Thun 32%, draw 25%, HNK Hajduk Split 43%.

Will both teams score in FC Thun vs HNK Hajduk Split?

We estimate a 61% chance that both teams score, so our BTTS tip is Yes.

Will there be over 2.5 goals in FC Thun vs HNK Hajduk Split?

We estimate a 59% chance of three or more goals, so our tip is Over 2.5 goals.

Are these predictions guaranteed?

No. They are statistical estimates. A 70% tip should still lose about three times in ten, so only stake what you can afford to lose.

How often are predictions updated?

Predictions refresh automatically through the day as new data arrives, and every tip is marked right or wrong after full time.

More Conference League on Thu 22 Oct

FTKairat Almaty 1-5 Panathinaikos2 ✓FTFC Iberia 1999 1-1 Mjallby AIFX2 ✓FTFK Crvena Zvezda 2-2 FC CopenhagenOver 1.5 ✓FTGetafe 2-5 FC LuganoUnder 3.5 ✗FTInter Club d'Escaldes 1-3 Universitatea Craiova2 ✓FTFK Jablonec 0-0 Brighton2 ✗FTKauno Žalgiris 1-4 BrannOver 1.5 ✓FTFC Nordsjaelland 2-2 CSKA Sofia1 ✗FTPafos 1-1 Riga1 ✗FTTrabzonspor 2-0 Heart Of Midlothian1 ✓FTSC Braga 2-0 GentUnder 3.5 ✓FTLincoln Red Imps FC 1-4 Twente2 ✓FTFC Midtjylland 0-1 St. Truiden1 ✗FTMonaco 3-0 SC FreiburgOver 1.5 ✓FTAjax 2-0 Atalanta12 ✓FTAarhus 1-1 Egnatia Rrogozhinë1 ✗FTBorac Banja Luka 2-0 KuPS1X ✓

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