Match events
RigaHT 0-0
- Substitution: A. BritoOff: I. Sunjic46'
- Yellow card: I. SunjicUnsportsmanlike conduct49'
- Substitution: J. CorreiaOff: D. Quina61'
- Substitution: LeleOff: Anderson Silva65'
- 65'Substitution: M. DiopOff: Caio Ferreira
- 65'Substitution: M. BadamosiOff: Reginaldo Ramires
- 67'Goal: Caio FerreiraAssist: S. Oulad M'Hand
- Substitution: K. SemaOff: Guga71'
- Goal: BielAssist: K. Sema76'
- 78'Substitution: R. AouaniOff: A. Cernomordijs
- Yellow card: K. SemaTripping87'
- 88'Substitution: S. Oulad M'HandOff: C. Saco
- 90'Yellow card: M. Tonisevs
Our verdict
Pafos to win
Bet365 1.62
✗ This tip lost · final score 1-1
Win probability
Match statistics
- 50%Possession50%
- 1.20Expected goals (xG)1.59
- 13Total shots15
- 3Shots on target2
- 7Shots off target9
- 3Blocked shots4
- 8Shots inside the box10
- 10Corners4
- 0Offsides1
- 7Fouls14
- 1Yellow cards0
- 1Goalkeeper saves2
- 348Passes361
- 283Accurate passes317
- 81%Pass accuracy88%
Line-ups
Pafos
4-3-3Starting XI
- 99Radosław MajeckiG
- 7BrunoD
- 3Samy MmaeeD
- 4David LuizD
- 14Nikolas IoannouD
- 30Vlad DragomirM
- 50Alexandre BritoM
- 6GugaM
- 77João CorreiaF
- 33Anderson SilvaF
- 20BielF
Substitutes
- 26Ivan ŠunjićM
- 8Domingos QuinaM
- 18LelêF
- 12Ken SemaM
- 71Michalis PapastylianouG
- 82Petros PetrouG
- 72Kosmas IoannouD
- 60Christos EvzonasM
Riga
4-3-1-2Starting XI
- 12Kenan PirićG
- 23Maksims TonisevsD
- 21Baba MusahD
- 5Karl Gameni WassomD
- 13Raivis JurkovskisD
- 22Meïssa DiopM
- 40Ahmed AnkrahM
- 7Raki AouaniM
- 8Iago Siqueira AugustoM
- 10Reginaldo RamiresF
- 18Salah Oulad M'HandF
Substitutes
- 11Caio FerreiraM
- 19Muhammed BadamosiF
- 34Antonijs ČernomordijsD
- 44Marcis KazainisG
- 91Frenks OrolsG
- 6Coli SacoM
- 15Samuel PedroF
- 25Abdulrahman TaiwoF
Betting markets
Expected goals 1.88 – 0.99Half time / full time result. 1 = Pafos, X = draw, 2 = Riga.
Asian handicap applied to Pafos.
Market percentages come from our model's expected goals for each side. Fair odds are 100 ÷ probability.
Model comparison
Last matches
Newest firstConference League table
| # | Team | P | +/- | Pts | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Panathinaikos | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +5 | 6 | WW |
| 2 | FC Lugano | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +4 | 6 | WW |
| 3 | Brann | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +4 | 6 | WW |
| 4 | Trabzonspor | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +4 | 6 | WW |
| 5 | Twente | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +4 | 6 | WW |
| 6 | Monaco | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +4 | 6 | WW |
| 7 | St. Truiden | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +3 | 6 | WW |
| 8 | HNK Hajduk Split | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 6 | WW |
| 9 | Brighton | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +4 | 4 | DW |
| 10 | FC Copenhagen | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +3 | 4 | DW |
| 11 | Universitatea Craiova | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 4 | WD |
| 12 | Mjallby AIF | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 4 | DW |
| 13 | Ajax | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 3 | WL |
| 14 | Borac Banja Luka | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 3 | WL |
| 15 | Atalanta | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | LW |
| 16 | SC Braga | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 3 | WL |
| 17 | Gent | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 3 | LW |
| 18 | SC Freiburg | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 3 | LW |
| 19 | FC Nordsjaelland | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | DD |
| 20 | Egnatia Rrogozhinë | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | DD |
| 21 | Riga | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | DD |
| 22 | FK Crvena Zvezda | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 | DL |
| 23 | CSKA Sofia | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 | DL |
| 24 | FK Jablonec | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 | DL |
| 25 | FC Midtjylland | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 | LD |
| 26 | Aarhus | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 | DL |
| 27 | Pafos | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 1 | DL |
| 28 | Heart Of Midlothian | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 1 | LD |
| 29 | FC Iberia 1999 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 1 | DL |
| 30 | Getafe | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -3 | 1 | LD |
| 31 | Kairat Almaty | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -4 | 1 | LD |
| 32 | FC Thun | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 | LL |
| 33 | Lincoln Red Imps FC | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -4 | 0 | LL |
| 34 | KuPS | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -4 | 0 | LL |
| 35 | Inter Club d'Escaldes | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -4 | 0 | LL |
| 36 | Kauno Žalgiris | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -7 | 0 | LL |
Top scorers
| # | Player | M | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  K. BehrensFC Lugano | 8 | 7 |
| 2 |  Winsley Boteli MokangoFC Sion | 6 | 7 |
| 3 |  C. DessersPanathinaikos | 5 | 6 |
| 4 |  A. CorneliusFC Copenhagen | 7 | 5 |
| 5 |  D. KlaassenAjax | 7 | 5 |
Season statistics
This season, all competitions we cover| Stat | Pafos | Riga |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 2 | 1 |
| Wins | 0 | 0 |
| Draws | 1 | 1 |
| Losses | 1 | 0 |
| Goals for (avg) | 0.5 | 1 |
| Goals against (avg) | 1.5 | 1 |
| Clean sheets | 1 | 0 |
| Failed to score | 1 | 0 |
| Best win streak | 0 | 0 |
Recent goal lines
How many of each team's last 2 games went over the line
| Over 1.5 | 1/2 | 1/1 |
|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 | 1/2 | 0/1 |
| Over 3.5 | 1/2 | 0/1 |
| BTTS – yes | 1/2 | 1/1 |
Match preview
Pafos host Riga in the Conference League (League Stage - 2) at Alphamega Stadium, Kolossi, with kick-off on Thursday, 22 October 2026 at 17:45 WAT.
Our prediction model makes Pafos favourites, giving Pafos a 58% chance of winning, 23% for the draw and 19% for Riga. Our tip is: Pafos to win.
Pafos have taken 1 points from their last 2 games (0W 1D 1L). Riga have taken 1 points from their last 1 games (0W 1D 0L).
On the goals markets, we expect goals, with a 55% chance of over 2.5 and a 54% chance that both teams score.
- Competition
- Europe Conference League
- Date
- Thursday, 22 October 2026, 17:45 WAT
- Venue
- Alphamega Stadium, Kolossi
TodaysPrediction analysis team
Model-based football predictions. How our predictions work
Quick answers
When is Pafos vs Riga?
Pafos vs Riga kicks off on Thursday, 22 October 2026 at 17:45 West Africa Time.
Which competition is Pafos vs Riga in?
The match is in the Europe Conference League.
Where are Pafos and Riga in the table?
Pafos are 27th and Riga are 21st in the Conference League.
Who will win Pafos vs Riga?
Our prediction is Pafos to win. Win probabilities: Pafos 58%, draw 23%, Riga 19%.
Will both teams score in Pafos vs Riga?
We estimate a 54% chance that both teams score, so our BTTS tip is Yes.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Pafos vs Riga?
We estimate a 55% chance of three or more goals, so our tip is Over 2.5 goals.
Are these predictions guaranteed?
No. They are statistical estimates. A 70% tip should still lose about three times in ten, so only stake what you can afford to lose.
How often are predictions updated?
Predictions refresh automatically through the day as new data arrives, and every tip is marked right or wrong after full time.