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Aarhus vs Egnatia Rrogozhinë prediction

Aarhus vs Egnatia Rrogozhinë prediction for the Conference League on 22 Oct 2026: Aarhus to win (61%). Probabilities, betting markets, form, H2H and stats.

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Thursday22October 2026
Yesterday: 28/42 correct(67%)
Conference League · League Stage - 2
AarhusEgnatia Rrogozhinë
1 - 1Full time · Thu 22 OctHT 0-1
Cepheus Park, Randers

Match events

AarhusEgnatia Rrogozhinë
  1. Red card: E. KahlSerious foul3'
  2. 11'Yellow card: A. YagoTripping
  3. Substitution: C. McCowattOff: T. Molgaard12'
  4. 13'Goal: I. GrudaAssist: D. Adjessa
  5. 16'Yellow card: A. KryeziuHolding
  6. Yellow card: K. ArnstadUnsportsmanlike conduct39'

HT 0-1

  1. Substitution: J. SerraOff: J. Bogere46'
  2. Substitution: F. TingagerOff: D. L. Gretarsson46'
  3. Goal: J. BogereAssist: S. Jorgensen49'
  4. 54'Substitution: A. YagoOff: E. Ndreca
  5. 54'Substitution: A. KryeziuOff: Fernando Medeiros
  6. 63'Substitution: A. AlbaneseOff: N. Ajetovikj
  7. 63'Substitution: G. JaimeOff: G. Smajli
  8. Substitution: J. AndersenOff: F. Emmery66'
  9. 72'Yellow card: E. BitriTripping
  10. Substitution: S. JorgensenOff: T. Bech83'
  11. 87'Substitution: K. LoukiliOff: I. Diabate

Our verdict

1 ✗

Aarhus to win

Bet365 1.53

61%

✗ This tip lost · final score 1-1

Expected goals2.9

Win probability

1 · Aarhus61%
Fair odds 1.64
X · Draw22%
Fair odds 4.55
2 · Egnatia Rrogozhinë17%
Fair odds 5.88

Match statistics

  • 34%Possession66%
  • 1.02Expected goals (xG)0.66
  • 8Total shots11
  • 2Shots on target7
  • 4Shots off target3
  • 2Blocked shots1
  • 4Shots inside the box3
  • 5Corners3
  • 0Offsides1
  • 10Fouls13
  • 1Yellow cards3
  • 1Red cards0
  • 6Goalkeeper saves1
  • 265Passes526
  • 195Accurate passes462
  • 74%Pass accuracy88%

Line-ups

Aarhus

3-4-2-1

Starting XI

  1. 1Jesper HansenG
  2. 25Colin RöslerD
  3. 5Frederik TingagerD
  4. 19Eric KahlD
  5. 29Rasmus CarstensenM
  6. 10Kristian ArnstadM
  7. 7Markus SolbakkenM
  8. 26Jacob AndersenM
  9. 8Sebastian JørgensenF
  10. 18Callum McCowattF
  11. 13Janni SerraF

Substitutes

  1. 14Tobias MølgaardD
  2. 3Daníel GrétarssonD
  3. 28James BogereF
  4. 21Mads HedenstadG
  5. 42Marius van der RaadG
  6. 33Luka CalløD
  7. 43Zander GrantzauD
  8. 16Jens JønssonM
  9. 39Frederik EmmeryF
  10. 4Magnus KnudsenM
  11. 27Stefen TchamcheF
  12. 31Tobias BechF

Egnatia Rrogozhinë

4-3-1-2

Starting XI

  1. 98Mario DajsinaniG
  2. 22Guillem JaimeD
  3. 33Eneo BitriD
  4. 28Eljon SotaD
  5. 29Andrey YagoD
  6. 17Altin KryeziuM
  7. 6Albano AleksiM
  8. 20Karim LoukiliM
  9. 10Alessandro AlbaneseM
  10. 77Ildi GrudaF
  11. 2Daniel AdjessaF

Substitutes

  1. 16Edison NdrecaD
  2. 7Fernando MedeirosM
  3. 1Levan TandilashviliG
  4. 12Bruno PujaG
  5. 4Zamiq AliyevD
  6. 13Alessandro KacbufiD
  7. 24Numan AjetovikjD
  8. 55Geralb SmajliD
  9. 8Ibrahim DiabatéM
  10. 99Jurguens MontenegroF

Betting markets

Expected goals 1.96 – 0.92
0.5 goalsOver94.4%Under5.6%
1.5 goalsOver78.2%Under21.8%
2.5 goalsOver54.9%Under45.1%
3.5 goalsOver32.6%Under67.4%
4.5 goalsOver16.5%Under83.5%

Market percentages come from our model's expected goals for each side. Fair odds are 100 ÷ probability.

Model comparison

AarhusEgnatia Rrogozhinë
50%Form50%
33%Attack67%
50%Defence50%
50%Head to head50%
68%Expected goals32%
78%Overall22%

Last matches

Newest first
Aarhus0W 1D 1L · last 2
DFC Copenhagen vs Aarhus18 Oct 2026 · Superliga1-1LGent vs Aarhus15 Oct 2026 · Conference League1-0
Egnatia Rrogozhinë0W 1D 0L · last 1
DEgnatia Rrogozhinë vs FC Midtjylland15 Oct 2026 · Conference League1-1

Conference League table

Conference League table
#TeamP+/-Pts
1Panathinaikos2+56
2FC Lugano2+46
3Brann2+46
4Trabzonspor2+46
5Twente2+46
6Monaco2+46
7St. Truiden2+36
8HNK Hajduk Split2+26
9Brighton2+44
10FC Copenhagen2+34
11Universitatea Craiova2+24
12Mjallby AIF2+24
13Ajax2+13
14Borac Banja Luka2+13
15Atalanta203
16SC Braga2-13
17Gent2-13
18SC Freiburg2-23
19FC Nordsjaelland202
20Egnatia Rrogozhinë202
21Riga202
22FK Crvena Zvezda2-11
23CSKA Sofia2-11
24FK Jablonec2-11
25FC Midtjylland2-11
26Aarhus2-11
27Pafos2-21
28Heart Of Midlothian2-21
29FC Iberia 19992-21
30Getafe2-31
31Kairat Almaty2-41
32FC Thun2-20
33Lincoln Red Imps FC2-40
34KuPS2-40
35Inter Club d'Escaldes2-40
36Kauno Žalgiris2-70
See full table ›

Top scorers

Conference League top scorers
#PlayerMGoals
1K. BehrensFC Lugano87
2Winsley Boteli MokangoFC Sion67
3C. DessersPanathinaikos56
4A. CorneliusFC Copenhagen75
5D. KlaassenAjax75

Season statistics

This season, all competitions we cover
StatAarhusEgnatia Rrogozhinë
Played21
Wins00
Draws11
Losses10
Goals for (avg)0.51
Goals against (avg)11
Clean sheets00
Failed to score10
Best win streak00

Recent goal lines

How many of each team's last 2 games went over the line

Over 1.51/21/1
Over 2.50/20/1
Over 3.50/20/1
BTTS – yes1/21/1

Match preview

Aarhus host Egnatia Rrogozhinë in the Conference League (League Stage - 2) at Cepheus Park, Randers, with kick-off on Thursday, 22 October 2026 at 20:00 WAT.

Our prediction model makes Aarhus favourites, giving Aarhus a 61% chance of winning, 22% for the draw and 17% for Egnatia Rrogozhinë. Our tip is: Aarhus to win.

Aarhus have taken 1 points from their last 2 games (0W 1D 1L). Egnatia Rrogozhinë have taken 1 points from their last 1 games (0W 1D 0L).

On the goals markets, we expect goals, with a 55% chance of over 2.5 and a 52% chance that both teams score.

Competition
Europe Conference League
Date
Thursday, 22 October 2026, 20:00 WAT
Venue
Cepheus Park, Randers

TodaysPrediction analysis team

Model-based football predictions. How our predictions work

Quick answers

When is Aarhus vs Egnatia Rrogozhinë?

Aarhus vs Egnatia Rrogozhinë kicks off on Thursday, 22 October 2026 at 20:00 West Africa Time.

Which competition is Aarhus vs Egnatia Rrogozhinë in?

The match is in the Europe Conference League.

Where are Aarhus and Egnatia Rrogozhinë in the table?

Aarhus are 26th and Egnatia Rrogozhinë are 20th in the Conference League.

Who will win Aarhus vs Egnatia Rrogozhinë?

Our prediction is Aarhus to win. Win probabilities: Aarhus 61%, draw 22%, Egnatia Rrogozhinë 17%.

Will both teams score in Aarhus vs Egnatia Rrogozhinë?

We estimate a 52% chance that both teams score, so our BTTS tip is Yes.

Will there be over 2.5 goals in Aarhus vs Egnatia Rrogozhinë?

We estimate a 55% chance of three or more goals, so our tip is Over 2.5 goals.

Are these predictions guaranteed?

No. They are statistical estimates. A 70% tip should still lose about three times in ten, so only stake what you can afford to lose.

How often are predictions updated?

Predictions refresh automatically through the day as new data arrives, and every tip is marked right or wrong after full time.

More Conference League on Thu 22 Oct

FTKairat Almaty 1-5 Panathinaikos2 ✓FTFC Iberia 1999 1-1 Mjallby AIFX2 ✓FTFK Crvena Zvezda 2-2 FC CopenhagenOver 1.5 ✓FTGetafe 2-5 FC LuganoUnder 3.5 ✗FTInter Club d'Escaldes 1-3 Universitatea Craiova2 ✓FTFK Jablonec 0-0 Brighton2 ✗FTKauno Žalgiris 1-4 BrannOver 1.5 ✓FTFC Nordsjaelland 2-2 CSKA Sofia1 ✗FTPafos 1-1 Riga1 ✗FTTrabzonspor 2-0 Heart Of Midlothian1 ✓FTSC Braga 2-0 GentUnder 3.5 ✓FTLincoln Red Imps FC 1-4 Twente2 ✓FTFC Midtjylland 0-1 St. Truiden1 ✗FTMonaco 3-0 SC FreiburgOver 1.5 ✓FTFC Thun 0-1 HNK Hajduk SplitX2 ✓FTAjax 2-0 Atalanta12 ✓FTBorac Banja Luka 2-0 KuPS1X ✓

All football predictions for today