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Getafe vs FC Lugano prediction

Getafe vs FC Lugano prediction for the Conference League on 22 Oct 2026: Under 3.5 (77%). Probabilities, betting markets, form, H2H and stats.

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Thursday22October 2026
Yesterday: 28/42 correct(67%)
Conference League · League Stage - 2
GetafeFC Lugano
2 - 5Full time · Thu 22 OctHT 1-3
Coliseum, Getafe

Match events

GetafeFC Lugano
  1. Goal: I. Azon2'
  2. 3'Goal: A. AjetiAssist: D. Dos Santos
  3. 7'Goal: Y. Cimignani
  4. 13'Yellow card: Y. CimignaniHolding
  5. 20'Yellow card: U. BislimiRoughing
  6. Yellow card: B. MayoralHolding23'
  7. 26'Goal: A. AjetiAssist: D. Moncada

HT 1-3

  1. Substitution: A. RiscoOff: N. Gudelj46'
  2. Substitution: J. MojicaOff: Davinchi46'
  3. Substitution: A. AbqarOff: R. Terrats46'
  4. Substitution: Kiko FemeniaOff: M. Satriano46'
  5. 50'Goal: U. BislimiAssist: M. Zanotti
  6. 57'Yellow card: D. MoncadaFoul
  7. 59'Substitution: D. MoncadaOff: E. Pihlstrom
  8. 59'Substitution: Y. CimignaniOff: M. Marques
  9. Substitution: I. AzonOff: E. Unal66'
  10. 66'Substitution: A. AjetiOff: K. Behrens
  11. 70'Yellow card: L. MaiRoughing
  12. 73'Yellow card: M. ZanottiHolding
  13. Goal: B. Mayoral74'
  14. 75'Substitution: D. Dos SantosOff: B. Karimov
  15. 75'Substitution: M. ZanottiOff: E. Alioski
  16. 90+2'Goal: K. Behrens

Our verdict

Under 3.5 ✗

Under 3.5

Bet365 1.28

77%

✗ This tip lost · final score 2-5

Expected goals2.5

Win probability

1 · Getafe48%
Fair odds 2.08
X · Draw27%
Fair odds 3.70
2 · FC Lugano25%
Fair odds 4.00

Match statistics

  • 57%Possession43%
  • 2.04Expected goals (xG)1.75
  • 22Total shots8
  • 7Shots on target5
  • 12Shots off target1
  • 3Blocked shots2
  • 10Shots inside the box6
  • 12Corners2
  • 1Offsides1
  • 6Fouls21
  • 1Yellow cards5
  • 1Goalkeeper saves5
  • 433Passes339
  • 366Accurate passes278
  • 85%Pass accuracy82%

Line-ups

Getafe

4-4-2

Starting XI

  1. 13David SoriaG
  2. 17Kiko FemeníaD
  3. 5Abdel AbqarD
  4. 26Jean Ives ValouD
  5. 3DavinchiD
  6. 21Andrés GarcíaM
  7. 2DjenéM
  8. 16Francho SerranoM
  9. 28Alberto RiscoM
  10. 9Borja MayoralF
  11. 20Ivan AzónF

Substitutes

  1. 22Johan MojicaD
  2. 8Nemanja GudeljM
  3. 11Ramón TerratsM
  4. 10Martín SatrianoF
  5. 19Enes ÜnalF
  6. 1Jiří LetáčekG
  7. 35Diego FerrerG
  8. 4Saba SazonovD
  9. 15Sebastián BoselliD
  10. 6Mario MartínM

FC Lugano

3-5-2

Starting XI

  1. 16David von BallmoosG
  2. 6Antonios PapadopoulosD
  3. 17Lars Lukas MaiD
  4. 3Hannes DelcroixD
  5. 46Mattia ZanottiM
  6. 25Uran BislimiM
  7. 8Anto GrgićM
  8. 27Daniel Dos SantosM
  9. 21Yanis CimignaniM
  10. 30Dereck MoncadaF
  11. 9Albian AjetiF

Substitutes

  1. 26Martim MarquesD
  2. 24Elias PihlströmF
  3. 91Kevin BehrensF
  4. 2Bekhruz KarimovD
  5. 7Ezgjan AlioskiD
  6. 28Felix GebhardtG
  7. 99Diego MinaG
  8. 4Damian KelvinD
  9. 14Ahmed KendouciM
  10. 22Beckham CastroF

Betting markets

Expected goals 1.47 – 0.99
0.5 goalsOver91.5%Under8.5%
1.5 goalsOver70.4%Under29.6%
2.5 goalsOver44.6%Under55.4%
3.5 goalsOver23.4%Under76.6%
4.5 goalsOver10.4%Under89.6%

Market percentages come from our model's expected goals for each side. Fair odds are 100 ÷ probability.

Model comparison

GetafeFC Lugano
40%Form60%
25%Attack75%
67%Defence33%
50%Head to head50%
60%Expected goals40%
66%Overall34%

Last matches

Newest first
Getafe0W 2D 0L · last 2
DGetafe vs Rayo Vallecano19 Oct 2026 · La Liga1-1DUniversitatea Craiova vs Getafe15 Oct 2026 · Conference League1-1
FC Lugano1W 0D 0L · last 1
WFC Lugano vs FK Crvena Zvezda15 Oct 2026 · Conference League3-2

Conference League table

Conference League table
#TeamP+/-Pts
1Panathinaikos2+56
2FC Lugano2+46
3Brann2+46
4Trabzonspor2+46
5Twente2+46
6Monaco2+46
7St. Truiden2+36
8HNK Hajduk Split2+26
9Brighton2+44
10FC Copenhagen2+34
11Universitatea Craiova2+24
12Mjallby AIF2+24
13Ajax2+13
14Borac Banja Luka2+13
15Atalanta203
16SC Braga2-13
17Gent2-13
18SC Freiburg2-23
19FC Nordsjaelland202
20Egnatia Rrogozhinë202
21Riga202
22FK Crvena Zvezda2-11
23CSKA Sofia2-11
24FK Jablonec2-11
25FC Midtjylland2-11
26Aarhus2-11
27Pafos2-21
28Heart Of Midlothian2-21
29FC Iberia 19992-21
30Getafe2-31
31Kairat Almaty2-41
32FC Thun2-20
33Lincoln Red Imps FC2-40
34KuPS2-40
35Inter Club d'Escaldes2-40
36Kauno Žalgiris2-70
See full table ›

Top scorers

Conference League top scorers
#PlayerMGoals
1K. BehrensFC Lugano87
2Winsley Boteli MokangoFC Sion67
3C. DessersPanathinaikos56
4A. CorneliusFC Copenhagen75
5D. KlaassenAjax75

Season statistics

This season, all competitions we cover
StatGetafeFC Lugano
Played21
Wins01
Draws20
Losses00
Goals for (avg)13
Goals against (avg)12
Clean sheets00
Failed to score00
Best win streak01

Recent goal lines

How many of each team's last 2 games went over the line

Over 1.52/21/1
Over 2.50/21/1
Over 3.50/21/1
BTTS – yes2/21/1

Match preview

Getafe host FC Lugano in the Conference League (League Stage - 2) at Coliseum, Getafe, with kick-off on Thursday, 22 October 2026 at 17:45 WAT.

Our prediction model makes Getafe slight favourites, giving Getafe a 48% chance of winning, 27% for the draw and 25% for FC Lugano. Our tip is: Under 3.5.

Getafe have taken 2 points from their last 2 games (0W 2D 0L). FC Lugano have taken 3 points from their last 1 games (1W 0D 0L).

On the goals markets, we expect a tighter game, with only a 45% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance that both teams score.

Competition
Europe Conference League
Date
Thursday, 22 October 2026, 17:45 WAT
Venue
Coliseum, Getafe

TodaysPrediction analysis team

Model-based football predictions. How our predictions work

Quick answers

When is Getafe vs FC Lugano?

Getafe vs FC Lugano kicks off on Thursday, 22 October 2026 at 17:45 West Africa Time.

Which competition is Getafe vs FC Lugano in?

The match is in the Europe Conference League.

Where are Getafe and FC Lugano in the table?

Getafe are 30th and FC Lugano are 2nd in the Conference League.

Who will win Getafe vs FC Lugano?

Our prediction is Under 3.5. Win probabilities: Getafe 48%, draw 27%, FC Lugano 25%.

Will both teams score in Getafe vs FC Lugano?

We estimate a 49% chance that both teams score, so our BTTS tip is No.

Will there be over 2.5 goals in Getafe vs FC Lugano?

We estimate a 45% chance of three or more goals, so our tip is Under 2.5 goals.

Are these predictions guaranteed?

No. They are statistical estimates. A 70% tip should still lose about three times in ten, so only stake what you can afford to lose.

How often are predictions updated?

Predictions refresh automatically through the day as new data arrives, and every tip is marked right or wrong after full time.

More Conference League on Thu 22 Oct

FTKairat Almaty 1-5 Panathinaikos2 ✓FTFC Iberia 1999 1-1 Mjallby AIFX2 ✓FTFK Crvena Zvezda 2-2 FC CopenhagenOver 1.5 ✓FTInter Club d'Escaldes 1-3 Universitatea Craiova2 ✓FTFK Jablonec 0-0 Brighton2 ✗FTKauno Žalgiris 1-4 BrannOver 1.5 ✓FTFC Nordsjaelland 2-2 CSKA Sofia1 ✗FTPafos 1-1 Riga1 ✗FTTrabzonspor 2-0 Heart Of Midlothian1 ✓FTSC Braga 2-0 GentUnder 3.5 ✓FTLincoln Red Imps FC 1-4 Twente2 ✓FTFC Midtjylland 0-1 St. Truiden1 ✗FTMonaco 3-0 SC FreiburgOver 1.5 ✓FTFC Thun 0-1 HNK Hajduk SplitX2 ✓FTAjax 2-0 Atalanta12 ✓FTAarhus 1-1 Egnatia Rrogozhinë1 ✗FTBorac Banja Luka 2-0 KuPS1X ✓

All football predictions for today