Match events
Pafos- Goal: E. ElmasAssist: G. Raspadori1'
- Penalty goal: G. Raspadori (pen)18'
- Substitution: G. RaspadoriOff: C. De Ketelaere21'
- 37'Substitution: K. SemaOff: David Luiz
- Goal: G. ScamaccaAssist: C. De Ketelaere44'
HT 3-0
- 46'Substitution: J. CorreiaOff: Bruno
- 46'Substitution: D. QuinaOff: A. Brito
- 50'Yellow card: R. Sa Pinto
- Substitution: N. ZalewskiOff: L. Samardzic67'
- Substitution: M. PasalicOff: Ederson67'
- 69'Substitution: LeleOff: Anderson Silva
- 69'Substitution: PepeOff: Guga
- Substitution: T. KristensenOff: J. Idele80'
- 88'Goal: BielAssist: Anderson Silva
Our verdict
Atalanta to win
Bet365 1.28
✓ This tip was correct · final score 3-1
Win probability
Match statistics
- 66%Possession34%
- 2.69Expected goals (xG)0.81
- 14Total shots7
- 5Shots on target4
- 5Shots off target3
- 4Blocked shots1
- 8Shots inside the box4
- 4Corners2
- 11Fouls10
- 4Goalkeeper saves3
- 692Passes351
- 645Accurate passes300
- 93%Pass accuracy85%
Line-ups
Atalanta
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 29Marco CarnesecchiG
- 77Davide ZappacostaD
- 31Thomas KristensenD
- 23Sead KolašinacD
- 47Lorenzo BernasconiD
- 70Gianluca GaetanoM
- 8Mario PašalićM
- 99Eljif ElmasM
- 18Giacomo RaspadoriM
- 59Nicola ZalewskiM
- 9Gianluca ScamaccaF
Substitutes
- 17Charles De KetelaereF
- 10Lazar SamardžićM
- 13ÉdersonM
- 57Marco SportielloG
- 51Mattia SonzogniG
- 40Relja ObrićD
- 41Javison IdeleM
- 11Jonathan RoweF
- 90Nikola KrstovićF
Pafos
4-3-3Starting XI
- 99Radosław MajeckiG
- 7BrunoD
- 3Samy MmaeeD
- 4David LuizD
- 14Nikolas IoannouD
- 30Vlad DragomirM
- 26Ivan ŠunjićM
- 88PêpêM
- 8Domingos QuinaF
- 18LelêF
- 20BielF
Substitutes
- 12Ken SemaM
- 50Alexandre BritoM
- 77João CorreiaD
- 6GugaM
- 33Anderson SilvaF
- 82Petros PetrouG
- 71Michalis PapastylianouG
- 61Melinos KaisD
- 72Kosmas IoannouD
- 60Christos EvzonasM
- 42Georgios MichaelM
Betting markets
Expected goals 2.47 – 0.82Half time / full time result. 1 = Atalanta, X = draw, 2 = Pafos.
Asian handicap applied to Atalanta.
Market percentages come from our model's expected goals for each side. Fair odds are 100 ÷ probability.
Model comparison
Last matches
Newest firstConference League table
| # | Team | P | +/- | Pts | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Panathinaikos | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +5 | 6 | WW |
| 2 | FC Lugano | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +4 | 6 | WW |
| 3 | Brann | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +4 | 6 | WW |
| 4 | Trabzonspor | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +4 | 6 | WW |
| 5 | Twente | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +4 | 6 | WW |
| 6 | Monaco | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +4 | 6 | WW |
| 7 | St. Truiden | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +3 | 6 | WW |
| 8 | HNK Hajduk Split | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 6 | WW |
| 9 | Brighton | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +4 | 4 | DW |
| 10 | FC Copenhagen | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +3 | 4 | DW |
| 11 | Universitatea Craiova | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 4 | WD |
| 12 | Mjallby AIF | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 4 | DW |
| 13 | Ajax | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 3 | WL |
| 14 | Borac Banja Luka | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 3 | WL |
| 15 | Atalanta | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | LW |
| 16 | SC Braga | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 3 | WL |
| 17 | Gent | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 3 | LW |
| 18 | SC Freiburg | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 3 | LW |
| 19 | FC Nordsjaelland | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | DD |
| 20 | Egnatia Rrogozhinë | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | DD |
| 21 | Riga | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | DD |
| 22 | FK Crvena Zvezda | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 | DL |
| 23 | CSKA Sofia | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 | DL |
| 24 | FK Jablonec | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 | DL |
| 25 | FC Midtjylland | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 | LD |
| 26 | Aarhus | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 | DL |
| 27 | Pafos | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 1 | DL |
| 28 | Heart Of Midlothian | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 1 | LD |
| 29 | FC Iberia 1999 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 1 | DL |
| 30 | Getafe | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -3 | 1 | LD |
| 31 | Kairat Almaty | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -4 | 1 | LD |
| 32 | FC Thun | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 | LL |
| 33 | Lincoln Red Imps FC | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -4 | 0 | LL |
| 34 | KuPS | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -4 | 0 | LL |
| 35 | Inter Club d'Escaldes | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -4 | 0 | LL |
| 36 | Kauno Žalgiris | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -7 | 0 | LL |
Top scorers
| # | Player | M | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  K. BehrensFC Lugano | 8 | 7 |
| 2 |  Winsley Boteli MokangoFC Sion | 6 | 7 |
| 3 |  C. DessersPanathinaikos | 5 | 6 |
| 4 |  A. CorneliusFC Copenhagen | 7 | 5 |
| 5 |  D. KlaassenAjax | 7 | 5 |
Season statistics
This season, all competitions we cover| Stat | Atalanta | Pafos |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 0 | 0 |
| Wins | 0 | 0 |
| Draws | 0 | 0 |
| Losses | 0 | 0 |
| Goals for (avg) | 0 | 0 |
| Goals against (avg) | 0 | 0 |
| Clean sheets | 0 | 0 |
| Failed to score | 0 | 0 |
| Best win streak | 0 | 0 |
Match preview
Atalanta host Pafos in the Conference League (League Stage - 1) at New Balance Arena, Bergamo, with kick-off on Thursday, 15 October 2026 at 20:00 WAT.
Our prediction model makes Atalanta clear favourites, giving Atalanta a 73% chance of winning, 17% for the draw and 10% for Pafos. Our tip is: Atalanta to win.
On the goals markets, we expect goals, with a 64% chance of over 2.5 and a 52% chance that both teams score.
- Competition
- Europe Conference League
- Date
- Thursday, 15 October 2026, 20:00 WAT
- Venue
- New Balance Arena, Bergamo
TodaysPrediction analysis team
Model-based football predictions. How our predictions work
Quick answers
When is Atalanta vs Pafos?
Atalanta vs Pafos kicks off on Thursday, 15 October 2026 at 20:00 West Africa Time.
Which competition is Atalanta vs Pafos in?
The match is in the Europe Conference League.
Where are Atalanta and Pafos in the table?
Atalanta are 15th and Pafos are 27th in the Conference League.
Who will win Atalanta vs Pafos?
Our prediction is Atalanta to win. Win probabilities: Atalanta 73%, draw 17%, Pafos 10%.
Will both teams score in Atalanta vs Pafos?
We estimate a 52% chance that both teams score, so our BTTS tip is Yes.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Atalanta vs Pafos?
We estimate a 64% chance of three or more goals, so our tip is Over 2.5 goals.
Are these predictions guaranteed?
No. They are statistical estimates. A 70% tip should still lose about three times in ten, so only stake what you can afford to lose.
How often are predictions updated?
Predictions refresh automatically through the day as new data arrives, and every tip is marked right or wrong after full time.