Our verdict
Over 2.5
Bet365 1.36
Win probability
Betting markets
Expected goals 2.78 – 0.80Half time / full time result. 1 = FC Lugano, X = draw, 2 = Kauno Žalgiris.
Asian handicap applied to FC Lugano.
Market percentages come from our model's expected goals for each side. Fair odds are 100 ÷ probability.
Model comparison
Last matches
Newest first
FC Lugano3W 0D 0L · last 3
Kauno Žalgiris1W 1D 2L · last 4Conference League table
| # | Team | P | +/- | Pts | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Panathinaikos | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +5 | 6 | WW |
| 2 | FC Lugano | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +4 | 6 | WW |
| 3 | Brann | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +4 | 6 | WW |
| 4 | Trabzonspor | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +4 | 6 | WW |
| 5 | Twente | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +4 | 6 | WW |
| 6 | Monaco | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +4 | 6 | WW |
| 7 | St. Truiden | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +3 | 6 | WW |
| 8 | HNK Hajduk Split | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 6 | WW |
| 9 | Brighton | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +4 | 4 | DW |
| 10 | FC Copenhagen | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +3 | 4 | DW |
| 11 | Universitatea Craiova | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 4 | WD |
| 12 | Mjallby AIF | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 4 | DW |
| 13 | Ajax | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 3 | WL |
| 14 | Borac Banja Luka | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 3 | WL |
| 15 | Atalanta | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | LW |
| 16 | SC Braga | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 3 | WL |
| 17 | Gent | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 3 | LW |
| 18 | SC Freiburg | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 3 | LW |
| 19 | FC Nordsjaelland | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | DD |
| 20 | Egnatia Rrogozhinë | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | DD |
| 21 | Riga | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | DD |
| 22 | FK Crvena Zvezda | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 | DL |
| 23 | CSKA Sofia | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 | DL |
| 24 | FK Jablonec | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 | DL |
| 25 | FC Midtjylland | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 | LD |
| 26 | Aarhus | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 | DL |
| 27 | Pafos | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 1 | DL |
| 28 | Heart Of Midlothian | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 1 | LD |
| 29 | FC Iberia 1999 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 1 | DL |
| 30 | Getafe | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -3 | 1 | LD |
| 31 | Kairat Almaty | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -4 | 1 | LD |
| 32 | FC Thun | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 | LL |
| 33 | Lincoln Red Imps FC | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -4 | 0 | LL |
| 34 | KuPS | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -4 | 0 | LL |
| 35 | Inter Club d'Escaldes | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -4 | 0 | LL |
| 36 | Kauno Žalgiris | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -7 | 0 | LL |
Top scorers
| # | Player | M | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  K. BehrensFC Lugano | 8 | 7 |
| 2 |  Winsley Boteli MokangoFC Sion | 6 | 7 |
| 3 |  C. DessersPanathinaikos | 5 | 6 |
| 4 |  A. CorneliusFC Copenhagen | 7 | 5 |
| 5 |  D. KlaassenAjax | 7 | 5 |
Season statistics
This season, all competitions we cover| Stat | FC Lugano | Kauno Žalgiris |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 3 | 4 |
| Wins | 3 | 1 |
| Draws | 0 | 1 |
| Losses | 0 | 2 |
| Goals for (avg) | 3.7 | 0.5 |
| Goals against (avg) | 2 | 2 |
| Clean sheets | 0 | 2 |
| Failed to score | 0 | 2 |
| Best win streak | 3 | 1 |
Recent goal lines
How many of each team's last 4 games went over the line
| Over 1.5 | 3/3 | 2/4 |
|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 | 3/3 | 2/4 |
| Over 3.5 | 3/3 | 2/4 |
| BTTS – yes | 3/3 | 1/4 |
Match preview
FC Lugano host Kauno Žalgiris in the Conference League (League Stage - 3) at AIL Arena, Lugano, with kick-off on Thursday, 5 November 2026 at 21:00 WAT.
Our prediction model makes FC Lugano clear favourites, giving FC Lugano a 78% chance of winning, 14% for the draw and 8% for Kauno Žalgiris. Our tip is: Over 2.5.
FC Lugano have taken 9 points from their last 3 games (3W 0D 0L). Kauno Žalgiris have taken 4 points from their last 4 games (1W 1D 2L).
On the goals markets, we expect goals, with a 69% chance of over 2.5 and a 52% chance that both teams score.
- Competition
- Europe Conference League
- Date
- Thursday, 5 November 2026, 21:00 WAT
- Venue
- AIL Arena, Lugano
TodaysPrediction analysis team
Model-based football predictions. How our predictions work
Quick answers
When is FC Lugano vs Kauno Žalgiris?
FC Lugano vs Kauno Žalgiris kicks off on Thursday, 5 November 2026 at 21:00 West Africa Time.
Which competition is FC Lugano vs Kauno Žalgiris in?
The match is in the Europe Conference League.
Where are FC Lugano and Kauno Žalgiris in the table?
FC Lugano are 2nd and Kauno Žalgiris are 36th in the Conference League.
Who will win FC Lugano vs Kauno Žalgiris?
Our prediction is Over 2.5. Win probabilities: FC Lugano 78%, draw 14%, Kauno Žalgiris 8%.
Will both teams score in FC Lugano vs Kauno Žalgiris?
We estimate a 52% chance that both teams score, so our BTTS tip is Yes.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in FC Lugano vs Kauno Žalgiris?
We estimate a 69% chance of three or more goals, so our tip is Over 2.5 goals.
Are these predictions guaranteed?
No. They are statistical estimates. A 70% tip should still lose about three times in ten, so only stake what you can afford to lose.
How often are predictions updated?
Predictions refresh automatically through the day as new data arrives, and every tip is marked right or wrong after full time.