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FC Lugano vs FK Crvena Zvezda prediction

FC Lugano vs FK Crvena Zvezda prediction for the Conference League on 15 Oct 2026: Over 1.5 (80%). Probabilities, betting markets, form, H2H and stats.

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Thursday15October 2026
Yesterday: 52/66 correct(79%)
Conference League · League Stage - 1
FC LuganoNo recent gamesFK Crvena ZvezdaNo recent games
3 - 2Full time · Thu 15 OctHT 1-1
AIL Arena, Lugano

Match events

FC LuganoFK Crvena Zvezda
  1. Goal: A. AjetiAssist: R. Steffen25'
  2. 32'Goal: T. ElsnikAssist: M. Gashtarov
  3. 33'Yellow card: V. KostovUnsportsmanlike conduct

HT 1-1

  1. Yellow card: R. SteffenTripping53'
  2. Yellow card: L. MaiRoughing55'
  3. Substitution: R. SteffenOff: E. Pihlstrom63'
  4. Substitution: A. AjetiOff: K. Behrens63'
  5. 64'Substitution: T. HandelOff: M. Cham
  6. 67'Goal: R. KrunicAssist: M. Cham
  7. Substitution: B. KarimovOff: D. Moncada73'
  8. 75'Substitution: V. LucicOff: K. Balov
  9. 75'Substitution: M. RisticOff: M. Strika
  10. Substitution: D. Dos SantosOff: B. D. Castro Espinosa79'
  11. Substitution: H. DelcroixOff: E. Alioski79'
  12. 81'Substitution: R. KrunicOff: M. Bajo
  13. 81'Substitution: B. DiengOff: M. Arnautovic
  14. 82'Yellow card: S. GudeljRoughing
  15. Goal: D. MoncadaAssist: Y. Cimignani84'
  16. 88'Yellow card: M. Bajo
  17. Penalty goal: A. Grgic (pen)89'
  18. 90+4'Yellow card: M. GashtarovRoughing

Our verdict

Over 1.5 ✓

Over 1.5

Bet365 1.20

80%

✓ This tip was correct · final score 3-2

Expected goals2.9

Win probability

1 · FC Lugano43%
Fair odds 2.33
X · Draw25%
Fair odds 4.00
2 · FK Crvena Zvezda32%
Fair odds 3.13

Match statistics

  • 40%Possession60%
  • 1.46Expected goals (xG)1.07
  • 15Total shots18
  • 4Shots on target5
  • 6Shots off target10
  • 5Blocked shots3
  • 6Shots inside the box6
  • 4Corners2
  • 2Offsides0
  • 9Fouls9
  • 2Yellow cards2
  • 3Goalkeeper saves2
  • 348Passes525
  • 299Accurate passes478
  • 86%Pass accuracy91%

Line-ups

FC Lugano

3-4-2-1

Starting XI

  1. 16David von BallmoosG
  2. 6Antonios PapadopoulosD
  3. 17Lars Lukas MaiD
  4. 3Hannes DelcroixD
  5. 2Bekhruz KarimovM
  6. 25Uran BislimiM
  7. 8Anto GrgićM
  8. 21Yanis CimignaniM
  9. 11Renato SteffenF
  10. 27Daniel Dos SantosF
  11. 9Albian AjetiF

Substitutes

  1. 24Elias PihlströmF
  2. 91Kevin BehrensF
  3. 30Dereck MoncadaF
  4. 99Diego MinaG
  5. 28Felix GebhardtG
  6. 4Damian KelvinD
  7. 7Ezgjan AlioskiD
  8. 26Martim MarquesD
  9. 22Beckham CastroF
  10. 14Ahmed KendouciM

FK Crvena Zvezda

5-4-1

Starting XI

  1. 1MatheusG
  2. 37Vladimir LučićD
  3. 60Matej GaštarovD
  4. 45Stefan GudeljD
  5. 3Yuta NakayamaD
  6. 23Mihailo RistićD
  7. 21Timi Max ElšnikM
  8. 33Rade KrunićM
  9. 20Tomás HändelM
  10. 22Vasilije KostovM
  11. 9Ahmadou Bamba DiengF

Substitutes

  1. 70Muhammed-Cham SaračevićM
  2. 50Savo RadanovićG
  3. 77Ivan GutešaG
  4. 30Franklin TeboD
  5. 27Matej StrikaD
  6. 13Miloš VeljkovićD
  7. 55Dimitrije ŠarićM
  8. 8Kristiyan BalovF
  9. 19Ye-geon KimM
  10. 6Mahmudu BajoM
  11. 7Marko ArnautovićF

Betting markets

Expected goals 1.59 – 1.34
0.5 goalsOver94.7%Under5.3%
1.5 goalsOver79.0%Under21.0%
2.5 goalsOver56.1%Under43.9%
3.5 goalsOver33.7%Under66.3%
4.5 goalsOver17.3%Under82.7%

Market percentages come from our model's expected goals for each side. Fair odds are 100 ÷ probability.

Model comparison

FC LuganoFK Crvena Zvezda
50%Form50%
50%Attack50%
50%Defence50%
50%Head to head50%
54%Expected goals46%
57%Overall43%

Last matches

Newest first
FC Lugano0W 0D 0L · last 0

No finished matches yet.

FK Crvena Zvezda0W 0D 0L · last 0

No finished matches yet.

Conference League table

Conference League table
#TeamP+/-Pts
1Panathinaikos2+56
2FC Lugano2+46
3Brann2+46
4Trabzonspor2+46
5Twente2+46
6Monaco2+46
7St. Truiden2+36
8HNK Hajduk Split2+26
9Brighton2+44
10FC Copenhagen2+34
11Universitatea Craiova2+24
12Mjallby AIF2+24
13Ajax2+13
14Borac Banja Luka2+13
15Atalanta203
16SC Braga2-13
17Gent2-13
18SC Freiburg2-23
19FC Nordsjaelland202
20Egnatia Rrogozhinë202
21Riga202
22FK Crvena Zvezda2-11
23CSKA Sofia2-11
24FK Jablonec2-11
25FC Midtjylland2-11
26Aarhus2-11
27Pafos2-21
28Heart Of Midlothian2-21
29FC Iberia 19992-21
30Getafe2-31
31Kairat Almaty2-41
32FC Thun2-20
33Lincoln Red Imps FC2-40
34KuPS2-40
35Inter Club d'Escaldes2-40
36Kauno Žalgiris2-70
See full table ›

Top scorers

Conference League top scorers
#PlayerMGoals
1K. BehrensFC Lugano87
2Winsley Boteli MokangoFC Sion67
3C. DessersPanathinaikos56
4A. CorneliusFC Copenhagen75
5D. KlaassenAjax75

Season statistics

This season, all competitions we cover
StatFC LuganoFK Crvena Zvezda
Played00
Wins00
Draws00
Losses00
Goals for (avg)00
Goals against (avg)00
Clean sheets00
Failed to score00
Best win streak00

Match preview

FC Lugano host FK Crvena Zvezda in the Conference League (League Stage - 1) at AIL Arena, Lugano, with kick-off on Thursday, 15 October 2026 at 17:45 WAT.

Our prediction model makes FC Lugano slight favourites, giving FC Lugano a 43% chance of winning, 25% for the draw and 32% for FK Crvena Zvezda. Our tip is: Over 1.5.

On the goals markets, we expect goals, with a 56% chance of over 2.5 and a 59% chance that both teams score.

Competition
Europe Conference League
Date
Thursday, 15 October 2026, 17:45 WAT
Venue
AIL Arena, Lugano

TodaysPrediction analysis team

Model-based football predictions. How our predictions work

Quick answers

When is FC Lugano vs FK Crvena Zvezda?

FC Lugano vs FK Crvena Zvezda kicks off on Thursday, 15 October 2026 at 17:45 West Africa Time.

Which competition is FC Lugano vs FK Crvena Zvezda in?

The match is in the Europe Conference League.

Where are FC Lugano and FK Crvena Zvezda in the table?

FC Lugano are 2nd and FK Crvena Zvezda are 22nd in the Conference League.

Who will win FC Lugano vs FK Crvena Zvezda?

Our prediction is Over 1.5. Win probabilities: FC Lugano 43%, draw 25%, FK Crvena Zvezda 32%.

Will both teams score in FC Lugano vs FK Crvena Zvezda?

We estimate a 59% chance that both teams score, so our BTTS tip is Yes.

Will there be over 2.5 goals in FC Lugano vs FK Crvena Zvezda?

We estimate a 56% chance of three or more goals, so our tip is Over 2.5 goals.

Are these predictions guaranteed?

No. They are statistical estimates. A 70% tip should still lose about three times in ten, so only stake what you can afford to lose.

How often are predictions updated?

Predictions refresh automatically through the day as new data arrives, and every tip is marked right or wrong after full time.

More Conference League on Thu 15 Oct

FTRiga 1-1 Kairat Almaty1X ✓FTCSKA Sofia 1-2 Monaco2 ✓FTUniversitatea Craiova 1-1 GetafeX2 ✓FTMjallby AIF 2-0 Inter Club d'Escaldes1 ✓FTPanathinaikos 2-1 Borac Banja Luka1 ✓FTGent 1-0 Aarhus1 ✓FTEgnatia Rrogozhinë 1-1 FC Midtjylland2 ✗FTKuPS 2-4 Trabzonspor2 ✓FTHNK Hajduk Split 2-1 Ajax2 ✗FTSt. Truiden 2-0 FC Iberia 19991 ✓FTTwente 1-0 FC ThunOver 2.5 ✗FTAtalanta 3-1 Pafos1 ✓FTBrann 2-1 Lincoln Red Imps FCOver 2.5 ✓FTBrighton 4-0 Kauno ŽalgirisNG ✓FTSC Freiburg 3-2 FK JablonecUnder 3.5 ✗FTHeart Of Midlothian 1-1 FC NordsjaellandX2 ✓FTFC Copenhagen 3-0 SC BragaOver 1.5 ✓

All football predictions for today