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FC Thun vs FC Lugano prediction

FC Thun vs FC Lugano prediction for the Super League on 25 Oct 2026: FC Lugano or draw (76%). Probabilities, betting markets, form, H2H and stats.

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Sunday25October 2026
Yesterday: 52/66 correct(79%)
Super League · Regular Season - 11
FC ThunFC Lugano
2 - 3Full time · Sun 25 OctHT 1-1
Cornaredo, Lugano

Match events

FC ThunFC Lugano
  1. 34'Goal: Dereck MoncadaAssist: Hannes Delcroix
  2. 34'VARVAR: Dereck MoncadaGoal confirmed
  3. Goal: Nassim Zoukit37'
  4. 38'Yellow card: Elias PihlstromFoul
  5. 44'Yellow card: Damian KelvinFoul
  6. Substitution: Louis Immanuel PassavantOff: Mattias Käit45'
  7. 45'Substitution: Damian KelvinOff: Daniel Dos Santos Correia
  8. 45'Substitution: Elias PihlstromOff: Mattia Zanotti

HT 1-1

  1. 49'Goal: Uran BislimiAssist: Daniel Dos Santos Correia
  2. Yellow card: Nico MaierFoul52'
  3. 60'Substitution: Dereck MoncadaOff: Martim Marques
  4. Substitution: Furkan DursunOff: Noah Christoffersson65'
  5. 73'Substitution: Kevin BehrensOff: Albian Ajeti
  6. Substitution: Nico MaierOff: Patrik Kristal74'
  7. 76'Goal: Albian AjetiAssist: Lars Lukas Mai
  8. Substitution: Brighton LabeauOff: Riccardo Braschi81'
  9. Substitution: Nils·ReichmuthOff: A. Ilic81'
  10. 84'Substitution: Uran BislimiOff: Ahmed Kendouci
  11. Yellow card: Fabio FehrFoul85'
  12. Penalty goal: Riccardo Braschi (pen)88'

Our verdict

X2 ✓

FC Lugano or draw

Bet365 1.28

76%

✓ This tip was correct · final score 2-3

Expected goals3.4

Win probability

1 · FC Thun24%
Fair odds 4.17
X · Draw22%
Fair odds 4.55
2 · FC Lugano54%
Fair odds 1.85

Match statistics

  • 52%Possession48%
  • 1.75Expected goals (xG)1.79
  • 17Total shots19
  • 9Shots on target6
  • 5Shots off target6
  • 3Blocked shots7
  • 14Shots inside the box11
  • 6Corners2
  • 5Offsides3
  • 15Fouls15
  • 2Yellow cards2
  • 0Red cards0
  • 3Goalkeeper saves7
  • 396Passes372
  • 314Accurate passes287

Line-ups

FC Thun

4-4-2

Starting XI

  1. 1N. SteffenG
  2. 47F. FehrD
  3. 54L. PassavantD
  4. 5N. BürgyD
  5. 18T. StrannegårdD
  6. 70N. ReichmuthM
  7. 16J. RothM
  8. 13N. ZoukitM
  9. 30N. MaierM
  10. 9F. DursunF
  11. 96B. LabeauF

Substitutes

  1. 26N. ChristofferssonF
  2. 20R. BraschiF
  3. 17A. BalarubanD
  4. 37L. DählerD
  5. 52Adam IlicM
  6. 15P. KristalM
  7. 14M. KäitM
  8. 80S. LengenF
  9. 25T. SpycherG

Coach: Gian Luca Privitelli

FC Lugano

3-4-1-2

Starting XI

  1. 16D. von BallmoosG
  2. 4D. KelvinD
  3. 17L. MaiD
  4. 3H. DelcroixD
  5. 2B. KarimovM
  6. 25U. BislimiM
  7. 8A. GrgićM
  8. 21Y. CimignaniM
  9. 30D. MoncadaF
  10. 91K. BehrensF
  11. 24E. PihlströmF

Substitutes

  1. 9A. AjetiF
  2. 7E. AlioskiD
  3. 18J. BichselD
  4. 22B. CastroF
  5. 26Martim MarquesD
  6. 27Daniel Dos SantosM
  7. 28F. GebhardtG
  8. 14A. KendouciM
  9. 46M. ZanottiD

Coach: M. Croci-Torti

Betting markets

Expected goals 1.34 – 2.08
0.5 goalsOver96.7%Under3.3%
1.5 goalsOver85.5%Under14.5%
2.5 goalsOver66.4%Under33.6%
3.5 goalsOver44.6%Under55.4%
4.5 goalsOver26.0%Under74.0%

Market percentages come from our model's expected goals for each side. Fair odds are 100 ÷ probability.

Model comparison

FC ThunFC Lugano
0%Form100%
0%Attack100%
67%Defence33%
50%Head to head50%
39%Expected goals61%
31%Overall69%

Last matches

Newest first
FC Thun0W 0D 2L · last 2
LFC Thun vs HNK Hajduk Split22 Oct 2026 · Conference League0-1LTwente vs FC Thun15 Oct 2026 · Conference League1-0
FC Lugano2W 0D 0L · last 2
WGetafe vs FC Lugano22 Oct 2026 · Conference League2-5WFC Lugano vs FK Crvena Zvezda15 Oct 2026 · Conference League3-2

Super League table

Super League table
#TeamP+/-Pts
1FC Lugano12+2634
2BSC Young Boys12+1525
3FC Sion12+723
4FC Zurich12-120
5FC ST. Gallen12-319
6Servette FC12+116
7FC Basel 189312-414
8FC Luzern12-613
9FC Thun12-1013
10FC Vaduz12-110
11Grasshoppers12-1310
12Lausanne12-116
See full table ›

Top scorers

Super League top scorers
#PlayerMGoals
1S. EssendeBSC Young Boys1112
2M. MonsbergerFC Vaduz126
3Winsley Boteli MokangoFC Sion126
4Ž. CelarFC Basel 1893116
5L. DalipiFC Vaduz125

Season statistics

This season, all competitions we cover
StatFC ThunFC Lugano
Played22
Wins02
Draws00
Losses20
Goals for (avg)04
Goals against (avg)12
Clean sheets00
Failed to score20
Best win streak02

Recent goal lines

How many of each team's last 2 games went over the line

Over 1.50/22/2
Over 2.50/22/2
Over 3.50/22/2
BTTS – yes0/22/2

Match preview

FC Thun host FC Lugano in the Super League (Regular Season - 11) at Cornaredo, Lugano, with kick-off on Sunday, 25 October 2026 at 14:00 WAT.

Our prediction model makes FC Lugano favourites, giving FC Thun a 24% chance of winning, 22% for the draw and 54% for FC Lugano. Our tip is: FC Lugano or draw.

FC Thun have taken 0 points from their last 2 games (0W 0D 2L). FC Lugano have taken 6 points from their last 2 games (2W 0D 0L).

On the goals markets, we expect goals, with a 66% chance of over 2.5 and a 65% chance that both teams score.

Competition
Switzerland Super League
Date
Sunday, 25 October 2026, 14:00 WAT
Venue
Cornaredo, Lugano

TodaysPrediction analysis team

Model-based football predictions. How our predictions work

Quick answers

When is FC Thun vs FC Lugano?

FC Thun vs FC Lugano kicks off on Sunday, 25 October 2026 at 14:00 West Africa Time.

Which competition is FC Thun vs FC Lugano in?

The match is in the Switzerland Super League.

Where are FC Thun and FC Lugano in the table?

FC Thun are 9th and FC Lugano are 1st in the Super League.

Who will win FC Thun vs FC Lugano?

Our prediction is FC Lugano or draw. Win probabilities: FC Thun 24%, draw 22%, FC Lugano 54%.

Will both teams score in FC Thun vs FC Lugano?

We estimate a 65% chance that both teams score, so our BTTS tip is Yes.

Will there be over 2.5 goals in FC Thun vs FC Lugano?

We estimate a 66% chance of three or more goals, so our tip is Over 2.5 goals.

Are these predictions guaranteed?

No. They are statistical estimates. A 70% tip should still lose about three times in ten, so only stake what you can afford to lose.

How often are predictions updated?

Predictions refresh automatically through the day as new data arrives, and every tip is marked right or wrong after full time.

More Super League on Sun 25 Oct

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