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Real Madrid vs RB Leipzig prediction

Real Madrid vs RB Leipzig prediction for the Champions League on 21 Oct 2026: Real Madrid to win (75%). Probabilities, betting markets, form, H2H and stats.

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Wednesday21October 2026
Yesterday: 78/96 correct(81%)
Champions League · League Stage - 3
Real MadridRB Leipzig
4 - 1Full time · Wed 21 OctHT 1-0
Santiago Bernabéu Stadium, Madrid

Match events

Real MadridRB Leipzig
  1. Goal: Bernardo Silva43'

HT 1-0

  1. Goal: Arda GülerAssist: Kylian Mbappé52'
  2. 63'Substitution: Brajan GrudaOff: Andrija Maksimović
  3. 63'Substitution: Neil El AynaouiOff: Rocco Reitz
  4. Yellow card: Álvaro Fernández CarrerasFoul68'
  5. Substitution: Álvaro Fernández CarrerasOff: Marc Cucurella70'
  6. Substitution: ViníciusOff: Yan Diomande70'
  7. 70'Yellow card: Rocco ReitzFoul
  8. 73'Substitution: Antonio NusaOff: Tidiam Gomis
  9. 73'Substitution: David RaumOff: Max Finkgräfe
  10. 78'Substitution: Christopher NkunkuOff: Christoph Baumgartner
  11. Substitution: Arda GülerOff: Brahim Díaz78'
  12. Goal: Kylian MbappéAssist: Yan Diomande83'
  13. 85'Goal: Tidiam GomisAssist: Christoph Baumgartner
  14. Goal: Yan DiomandeAssist: Brahim Díaz87'
  15. Substitution: Carlos EspíOff: Kylian Mbappé88'
  16. Substitution: Jude BellinghamOff: Endrick Felipe Moreira de Sousa88'

Our verdict

1 ✓

Real Madrid to win

Bet365 1.25

75%

✓ This tip was correct · final score 4-1

Expected goals4.1

Win probability

1 · Real Madrid75%
Fair odds 1.33
X · Draw14%
Fair odds 7.14
2 · RB Leipzig11%
Fair odds 9.09

Match statistics

  • 65%Possession35%
  • 3.13Expected goals (xG)1.51
  • 18Total shots11
  • 11Shots on target6
  • 6Shots off target4
  • 1Blocked shots1
  • 13Shots inside the box10
  • 7Corners1
  • 3Offsides2
  • 13Fouls12
  • 1Yellow cards1
  • 0Red cards0
  • 5Goalkeeper saves6
  • 743Passes405
  • 679Accurate passes355

Line-ups

Real Madrid

4-2-3-1

Starting XI

  1. 1T. CourtoisG
  2. 8F. ValverdeD
  3. 22A. RüdigerD
  4. 4D. HuijsenD
  5. 18Álvaro FernándezD
  6. 6E. CamavingaM
  7. 20Bernardo SilvaM
  8. 15A. GülerM
  9. 5J. BellinghamM
  10. 7Vinícius JúniorM
  11. 10Kylian MbappéF

Substitutes

  1. 12T. Alexander-ArnoldD
  2. 21Brahim DíazM
  3. 25Y. DiomandeF
  4. 24D. DumfriesD
  5. 17Marc CucurellaD
  6. 3Éder MilitãoD
  7. 9EndrickF
  8. 19Carlos EspíF
  9. 16I. KonatéD
  10. 13A. LuninG
  11. 27Thiago PitarchM
  12. 14A. TchouaméniM

Coach: José Mourinho

RB Leipzig

4-2-3-1

Starting XI

  1. 26M. VandevoordtG
  2. 17R. BakuD
  3. 4W. OrbánD
  4. 23C. LukebaD
  5. 22D. RaumD
  6. 13N. SeiwaldM
  7. 21N. El AynaouiM
  8. 10B. GrudaM
  9. 28C. NkunkuM
  10. 7A. NusaM
  11. 40RômuloF

Substitutes

  1. 14C. BaumgartnerM
  2. 3M. EstèveD
  3. 35Max FinkgräfeD
  4. 27T. GomisF
  5. 39B. HenrichsD
  6. 16L. KlostermannD
  7. 2A. KonéD
  8. 30A. MaksimovićM
  9. 1Ø. NylandG
  10. 20R. ReitzM
  11. 11J. BakayokoF
  12. 6E. BanzuziM

Coach: M. Demichelis

Betting markets

Expected goals 2.96 – 1.11
0.5 goalsOver98.3%Under1.7%
1.5 goalsOver91.3%Under8.7%
2.5 goalsOver77.2%Under22.8%
3.5 goalsOver58.0%Under42.0%
4.5 goalsOver38.5%Under61.5%

Market percentages come from our model's expected goals for each side. Fair odds are 100 ÷ probability.

Model comparison

Real MadridRB Leipzig
67%Form33%
80%Attack20%
60%Defence40%
50%Head to head50%
73%Expected goals27%
87%Overall13%

Last matches

Newest first
Real Madrid2W 0D 0L · last 2
WReal Madrid vs Sevilla18 Oct 2026 · La Liga4-1WAS Roma vs Real Madrid14 Oct 2026 · Champions League3-4
RB Leipzig1W 0D 1L · last 2
LBayern München vs RB Leipzig17 Oct 2026 · Bundesliga6-1WRB Leipzig vs PSV Eindhoven13 Oct 2026 · Champions League1-0

Champions League table

Champions League table
#TeamP+/-Pts
1Paris Saint Germain3+99
2Aston Villa3+99
3Liverpool3+59
4Real Madrid3+59
5Real Betis3+39
6VfB Stuttgart3+57
7Arsenal3+47
8Barcelona3+56
9Como3+56
10Manchester City3+46
11Club Brugge KV3+36
12Sporting CP3+36
13Borussia Dortmund3+16
14Bayern München3+55
15AS Roma3+34
16Atletico Madrid3+14
17Shakhtar Donetsk3+14
18PSV Eindhoven304
19Villarreal303
20Inter3-13
21Manchester United3-13
22Napoli3-23
23Galatasaray3-33
24Lask Linz3-33
25Sabah FA3-33
26Feyenoord3-43
27Lens3-43
28Bodo/Glimt3-53
29AEK Athens FC3-53
30RB Leipzig3-53
31Fenerbahçe3-62
32Slavia Praha3-31
33Viking3-41
34FC Porto3-40
35Lille3-60
36Slovan Bratislava3-120
See full table ›

Top scorers

Champions League top scorers
#PlayerMGoals
1J. MickelsSabah FA114
2E. DemirovićVfB Stuttgart34
3E. HaalandManchester City24
4S. GuirassyBorussia Dortmund34
5H. KaneBayern München34

Season statistics

This season, all competitions we cover
StatReal MadridRB Leipzig
Played22
Wins21
Draws00
Losses01
Goals for (avg)41
Goals against (avg)23
Clean sheets01
Failed to score00
Best win streak21

Recent goal lines

How many of each team's last 2 games went over the line

Over 1.52/21/2
Over 2.52/21/2
Over 3.52/21/2
BTTS – yes2/21/2

Match preview

Real Madrid host RB Leipzig in the Champions League (League Stage - 3) at Santiago Bernabéu Stadium, Madrid, with kick-off on Wednesday, 21 October 2026 at 20:00 WAT.

Our prediction model makes Real Madrid clear favourites, giving Real Madrid a 75% chance of winning, 14% for the draw and 11% for RB Leipzig. Our tip is: Real Madrid to win.

Real Madrid have taken 6 points from their last 2 games (2W 0D 0L). RB Leipzig have taken 3 points from their last 2 games (1W 0D 1L).

On the goals markets, we expect goals, with a 77% chance of over 2.5 and a 64% chance that both teams score.

Competition
Europe Champions League
Date
Wednesday, 21 October 2026, 20:00 WAT
Venue
Santiago Bernabéu Stadium, Madrid

TodaysPrediction analysis team

Model-based football predictions. How our predictions work

Quick answers

When is Real Madrid vs RB Leipzig?

Real Madrid vs RB Leipzig kicks off on Wednesday, 21 October 2026 at 20:00 West Africa Time.

Which competition is Real Madrid vs RB Leipzig in?

The match is in the Europe Champions League.

Where are Real Madrid and RB Leipzig in the table?

Real Madrid are 4th and RB Leipzig are 30th in the Champions League.

Who will win Real Madrid vs RB Leipzig?

Our prediction is Real Madrid to win. Win probabilities: Real Madrid 75%, draw 14%, RB Leipzig 11%.

Will both teams score in Real Madrid vs RB Leipzig?

We estimate a 64% chance that both teams score, so our BTTS tip is Yes.

Will there be over 2.5 goals in Real Madrid vs RB Leipzig?

We estimate a 77% chance of three or more goals, so our tip is Over 2.5 goals.

Are these predictions guaranteed?

No. They are statistical estimates. A 70% tip should still lose about three times in ten, so only stake what you can afford to lose.

How often are predictions updated?

Predictions refresh automatically through the day as new data arrives, and every tip is marked right or wrong after full time.

More Champions League on Wed 21 Oct

FTLille 2-4 GalatasarayOver 1.5 ✓FTComo 4-1 Manchester United12 ✓FTAston Villa 3-1 Viking1 ✓FTInter 1-0 Shakhtar Donetsk1 ✓FTReal Betis 1-0 Feyenoord1 ✓FTSporting CP 2-3 Lask Linz1 ✗FTClub Brugge KV 3-0 Lens12 ✓FTBayern München 2-2 Arsenal12 ✗

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