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Real Madrid vs Sevilla prediction

Real Madrid vs Sevilla prediction for the La Liga on 18 Oct 2026: Real Madrid to win (75%). Probabilities, betting markets, form, H2H and stats.

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Sunday18October 2026
Yesterday: 52/66 correct(79%)
La Liga · Regular Season - 9
Real MadridSevillaNo recent games
4 - 1Full time · Sun 18 OctHT 2-0
Santiago Bernabéu Stadium, Madrid

Match events

Real MadridSevilla
  1. Yellow card: Dean HuijsenArgument23'
  2. 23'Yellow card: Felix CorreiaArgument
  3. Goal: Arda GülerAssist: Yan Diomande30'
  4. Goal: Kylian MbappéAssist: Jude Bellingham37'
  5. 45'Substitution: Rubén VargasOff: Chidera Ejuke

HT 2-0

  1. 56'Substitution: Robbie UreOff: Lucas Stassin
  2. 56'Substitution: Manuel Bueno SebastiánOff: Peque Fernández
  3. Penalty goal: Kylian Mbappé (pen)63'
  4. 69'Yellow card: Juan Antonio Iglesias SánchezFoul
  5. Substitution: Endrick Felipe Moreira de SousaOff: Brahim Díaz69'
  6. Substitution: Jude BellinghamOff: Bernardo Silva70'
  7. 72'Substitution: Juan Antonio Iglesias SánchezOff: José Ángel Carmona
  8. 73'Substitution: Felix CorreiaOff: Alfonso González Martínez
  9. Yellow card: Marc CucurellaFoul73'
  10. Substitution: Arda GülerOff: Eduardo Camavinga78'
  11. 80'Goal: Manuel Bueno SebastiánAssist: Lucas Stassin
  12. Goal: Yan DiomandeAssist: Aurelien Tchouameni82'
  13. Substitution: Carlos EspíOff: Kylian Mbappé85'
  14. Substitution: Federico ValverdeOff: Éder Militão85'

Our verdict

1 ✓

Real Madrid to win

Bet365 1.22

75%

✓ This tip was correct · final score 4-1

Expected goals3.5

Win probability

1 · Real Madrid75%
Fair odds 1.33
X · Draw16%
Fair odds 6.25
2 · Sevilla9%
Fair odds 11.11

Match statistics

  • 65%Possession35%
  • 2.28Expected goals (xG)0.81
  • 15Total shots11
  • 8Shots on target5
  • 5Shots off target4
  • 2Blocked shots2
  • 10Shots inside the box9
  • 1Corners2
  • 1Offsides0
  • 9Fouls14
  • 2Yellow cards2
  • 0Red cards0
  • 4Goalkeeper saves2
  • 666Passes348
  • 604Accurate passes279

Line-ups

Real Madrid

4-2-3-1

Starting XI

  1. 1T. CourtoisG
  2. 8F. ValverdeD
  3. 16I. KonatéD
  4. 4D. HuijsenD
  5. 17Marc CucurellaD
  6. 15A. GülerM
  7. 14A. TchouaméniM
  8. 9EndrickM
  9. 5J. BellinghamM
  10. 25Y. DiomandeM
  11. 10Kylian MbappéF

Substitutes

  1. 12T. Alexander-ArnoldD
  2. 6E. CamavingaM
  3. 24D. DumfriesD
  4. 19Carlos EspíF
  5. 18Álvaro FernándezD
  6. 13A. LuninG
  7. 3Éder MilitãoD
  8. 20Bernardo SilvaM
  9. 31Javier NavarroG
  10. 27Thiago PitarchM
  11. 22A. RüdigerD
  12. 21Brahim DíazM

Coach: José Mourinho

Sevilla

4-2-3-1

Starting XI

  1. 1O. VlachodimosG
  2. 2Juan IglesiasD
  3. 5Andrés CastrínD
  4. 4Kike SalasD
  5. 17G. SuazoD
  6. 6L. AgouméM
  7. 24Y. FofanaM
  8. 11R. VargasM
  9. 10Peque FernándezM
  10. 20Félix CorreiaM
  11. 9R. UreF

Substitutes

  1. 15Fábio CardosoD
  2. 14Manu BuenoM
  3. 22José Ángel CarmonaD
  4. 3Julio Díaz del RomoD
  5. 21C. EjukeF
  6. 13Fran GonzálezG
  7. 7Alfon GonzálezF
  8. 33Rafael RomeroG
  9. 12A. SanganteD
  10. 19L. StassinF
  11. 29Jesús CruzM
  12. 27N. GuillenM

Coach: Luis García

Betting markets

Expected goals 2.63 – 0.86
0.5 goalsOver96.9%Under3.1%
1.5 goalsOver86.3%Under13.7%
2.5 goalsOver67.7%Under32.3%
3.5 goalsOver46.1%Under53.9%
4.5 goalsOver27.3%Under72.7%

Market percentages come from our model's expected goals for each side. Fair odds are 100 ÷ probability.

Model comparison

Real MadridSevilla
100%Form0%
100%Attack0%
6%Defence94%
50%Head to head50%
75%Expected goals25%
89%Overall11%

Last matches

Newest first
Real Madrid1W 0D 0L · last 1
WAS Roma vs Real Madrid14 Oct 2026 · Champions League3-4
Sevilla0W 0D 0L · last 0

No finished matches yet.

La Liga table

La Liga table
#TeamP+/-Pts
1Barcelona11+3430
2Atletico Madrid11+1428
3Real Madrid11+1827
4Real Betis11+323
5Real Sociedad10+119
6Sevilla11-217
7Athletic Club9+312
8Villarreal11012
9Celta Vigo11012
10Alaves11-212
11Rayo Vallecano10-512
12Getafe11-812
13Deportivo La Coruna10011
14Espanyol11-111
15Osasuna10-1011
16Racing Santander11-1411
17Elche11-410
18Levante11-510
19Valencia11-99
20Malaga11-135
See full table ›

Top scorers

La Liga top scorers
#PlayerMGoals
1RaphinhaBarcelona1015
2Kylian MbappéReal Madrid1011
3Lamine YamalBarcelona1110
4M. ZabiriRacing Santander108
5Sergio CamelloRayo Vallecano117

Season statistics

This season, all competitions we cover
StatReal MadridSevilla
Played10
Wins10
Draws00
Losses00
Goals for (avg)40
Goals against (avg)30
Clean sheets00
Failed to score00
Best win streak10

Recent goal lines

How many of each team's last 1 games went over the line

Over 1.51/10/0
Over 2.51/10/0
Over 3.51/10/0
BTTS – yes1/10/0

Match preview

Real Madrid host Sevilla in the La Liga (Regular Season - 9) at Santiago Bernabéu Stadium, Madrid, with kick-off on Sunday, 18 October 2026 at 20:00 WAT.

Our prediction model makes Real Madrid clear favourites, giving Real Madrid a 75% chance of winning, 16% for the draw and 9% for Sevilla. Our tip is: Real Madrid to win.

Real Madrid have taken 3 points from their last 1 games (1W 0D 0L).

On the goals markets, we expect goals, with a 68% chance of over 2.5 and a 54% chance that both teams score.

Competition
Spain La Liga
Date
Sunday, 18 October 2026, 20:00 WAT
Venue
Santiago Bernabéu Stadium, Madrid

TodaysPrediction analysis team

Model-based football predictions. How our predictions work

Quick answers

When is Real Madrid vs Sevilla?

Real Madrid vs Sevilla kicks off on Sunday, 18 October 2026 at 20:00 West Africa Time.

Which competition is Real Madrid vs Sevilla in?

The match is in the Spain La Liga.

Where are Real Madrid and Sevilla in the table?

Real Madrid are 3rd and Sevilla are 6th in the La Liga.

Who will win Real Madrid vs Sevilla?

Our prediction is Real Madrid to win. Win probabilities: Real Madrid 75%, draw 16%, Sevilla 9%.

Will both teams score in Real Madrid vs Sevilla?

We estimate a 54% chance that both teams score, so our BTTS tip is Yes.

Will there be over 2.5 goals in Real Madrid vs Sevilla?

We estimate a 68% chance of three or more goals, so our tip is Over 2.5 goals.

Are these predictions guaranteed?

No. They are statistical estimates. A 70% tip should still lose about three times in ten, so only stake what you can afford to lose.

How often are predictions updated?

Predictions refresh automatically through the day as new data arrives, and every tip is marked right or wrong after full time.

More La Liga on Sun 18 Oct

FTOsasuna 2-0 Racing SantanderOver 1.5 ✓FTCelta Vigo 2-1 AlavesUnder 3.5 ✓FTMalaga 2-5 Real SociedadX2 ✓

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