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Bayern München vs Arsenal prediction

Bayern München vs Arsenal prediction for the Champions League on 21 Oct 2026: Bayern München or Arsenal (76%). Probabilities, betting markets, form, H2H and stats.

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Wednesday21October 2026
Yesterday: 78/96 correct(81%)
Champions League · League Stage - 3
Bayern MünchenArsenal
2 - 2Full time · Wed 21 OctHT 1-1
Allianz Arena, Munich

Match events

Bayern MünchenArsenal
  1. 10'Substitution: Bukayo SakaOff: Eberechi Eze
  2. 13'Yellow card: Kai HavertzFoul
  3. 25'Goal: Eberechi EzeAssist: Martin Odegaard
  4. 26'VARVAR: Eberechi EzeGoal confirmed
  5. Goal: Alphonso DaviesAssist: Harry Kane35'
  6. 39'Yellow card: Ezri KonsaFoul
  7. Substitution: Jonathan TahOff: Kim Min-Jae45'

HT 1-1

  1. Penalty goal: Harry Kane (pen)61'
  2. Substitution: Ismael SaibariOff: Luis Díaz68'
  3. Substitution: Serge GnabryOff: Lennart Karl68'
  4. 68'Substitution: Kai HavertzOff: Viktor Gyökeres
  5. 69'Substitution: Myles Lewis-SkellyOff: Bruno Guimarães
  6. 82'Goal: Declan RiceAssist: Viktor Gyökeres
  7. 85'Substitution: Martin OdegaardOff: Mikel Merino
  8. Substitution: Alphonso DaviesOff: Nathaniel Brown85'
  9. Substitution: Luis DíazOff: Bara Sapoko Ndiaye90'

Our verdict

12 ✗

Bayern München or Arsenal

Bet365 1.25

76%

✗ This tip lost · final score 2-2

Expected goals3.1

Win probability

1 · Bayern München47%
Fair odds 2.13
X · Draw24%
Fair odds 4.17
2 · Arsenal29%
Fair odds 3.45

Match statistics

  • 42%Possession58%
  • 2.50Expected goals (xG)1.71
  • 13Total shots14
  • 5Shots on target5
  • 3Shots off target4
  • 5Blocked shots5
  • 10Shots inside the box9
  • 3Corners5
  • 2Offsides1
  • 15Fouls6
  • 0Yellow cards2
  • 0Red cards0
  • 3Goalkeeper saves3
  • 434Passes506
  • 372Accurate passes440

Line-ups

Bayern München

4-2-3-1

Starting XI

  1. 1M. NeuerG
  2. 27K. LaimerD
  3. 2D. UpamecanoD
  4. 3Kim Min-JaeD
  5. 44J. StanišićD
  6. 8T. BischofM
  7. 45A. PavlovićM
  8. 7S. GnabryM
  9. 34I. SaibariM
  10. 19A. DaviesM
  11. 9H. KaneF

Substitutes

  1. 39Bara NdiayeM
  2. 23S. BoeyD
  3. 46T. BinderM
  4. 42L. KarlM
  5. 21H. ItoD
  6. 4J. TahD
  7. 14L. DíazF
  8. 26S. UlreichG
  9. 40J. UrbigG
  10. 11N. BrownD

Coach: V. Kompany

Arsenal

4-3-3

Starting XI

  1. 1David RayaG
  2. 12J. TimberD
  3. 15E. KonsaD
  4. 6Gabriel MagalhãesD
  5. 33R. CalafioriD
  6. 8M. ØdegaardM
  7. 39Bruno GuimarãesM
  8. 41D. RiceM
  9. 7B. SakaF
  10. 29K. HavertzF
  11. 20N. MaduekeF

Substitutes

  1. 56M. DowmanF
  2. 10E. EzeM
  3. 14V. GyökeresF
  4. 49M. Lewis-SkellyD
  5. 23Mikel MerinoM
  6. 30I. MeslierG
  7. 3Cristhian MosqueraD
  8. 4B. WhiteD
  9. 36Martín ZubimendiM
  10. 13KepaG

Coach: Mikel Arteta

Betting markets

Expected goals 1.77 – 1.37
0.5 goalsOver95.7%Under4.3%
1.5 goalsOver82.1%Under17.9%
2.5 goalsOver60.7%Under39.3%
3.5 goalsOver38.4%Under61.6%
4.5 goalsOver20.9%Under79.1%

Market percentages come from our model's expected goals for each side. Fair odds are 100 ÷ probability.

Model comparison

Bayern MünchenArsenal
40%Form60%
69%Attack31%
9%Defence91%
50%Head to head50%
56%Expected goals44%
62%Overall38%

Last matches

Newest first
Bayern München1W 1D 0L · last 2
WBayern München vs RB Leipzig17 Oct 2026 · Bundesliga6-1DViking vs Bayern München13 Oct 2026 · Champions League3-3
Arsenal2W 0D 0L · last 2
WNottingham Forest vs Arsenal18 Oct 2026 · Premier League0-1WArsenal vs Lille13 Oct 2026 · Champions League3-0

Champions League table

Champions League table
#TeamP+/-Pts
1Paris Saint Germain3+99
2Aston Villa3+99
3Liverpool3+59
4Real Madrid3+59
5Real Betis3+39
6VfB Stuttgart3+57
7Arsenal3+47
8Barcelona3+56
9Como3+56
10Manchester City3+46
11Club Brugge KV3+36
12Sporting CP3+36
13Borussia Dortmund3+16
14Bayern München3+55
15AS Roma3+34
16Atletico Madrid3+14
17Shakhtar Donetsk3+14
18PSV Eindhoven304
19Villarreal303
20Inter3-13
21Manchester United3-13
22Napoli3-23
23Galatasaray3-33
24Lask Linz3-33
25Sabah FA3-33
26Feyenoord3-43
27Lens3-43
28Bodo/Glimt3-53
29AEK Athens FC3-53
30RB Leipzig3-53
31Fenerbahçe3-62
32Slavia Praha3-31
33Viking3-41
34FC Porto3-40
35Lille3-60
36Slovan Bratislava3-120
See full table ›

Top scorers

Champions League top scorers
#PlayerMGoals
1J. MickelsSabah FA114
2E. DemirovićVfB Stuttgart34
3E. HaalandManchester City24
4S. GuirassyBorussia Dortmund34
5H. KaneBayern München34

Season statistics

This season, all competitions we cover
StatBayern MünchenArsenal
Played22
Wins12
Draws10
Losses00
Goals for (avg)4.52
Goals against (avg)20
Clean sheets02
Failed to score00
Best win streak12

Recent goal lines

How many of each team's last 2 games went over the line

Over 1.52/21/2
Over 2.52/21/2
Over 3.52/20/2
BTTS – yes2/20/2

Match preview

Bayern München host Arsenal in the Champions League (League Stage - 3) at Allianz Arena, Munich, with kick-off on Wednesday, 21 October 2026 at 20:00 WAT.

Our prediction model makes Bayern München slight favourites, giving Bayern München a 47% chance of winning, 24% for the draw and 29% for Arsenal. Our tip is: Bayern München or Arsenal.

Bayern München have taken 4 points from their last 2 games (1W 1D 0L). Arsenal have taken 6 points from their last 2 games (2W 0D 0L).

On the goals markets, we expect goals, with a 61% chance of over 2.5 and a 62% chance that both teams score.

Competition
Europe Champions League
Date
Wednesday, 21 October 2026, 20:00 WAT
Venue
Allianz Arena, Munich

TodaysPrediction analysis team

Model-based football predictions. How our predictions work

Quick answers

When is Bayern München vs Arsenal?

Bayern München vs Arsenal kicks off on Wednesday, 21 October 2026 at 20:00 West Africa Time.

Which competition is Bayern München vs Arsenal in?

The match is in the Europe Champions League.

Where are Bayern München and Arsenal in the table?

Bayern München are 14th and Arsenal are 7th in the Champions League.

Who will win Bayern München vs Arsenal?

Our prediction is Bayern München or Arsenal. Win probabilities: Bayern München 47%, draw 24%, Arsenal 29%.

Will both teams score in Bayern München vs Arsenal?

We estimate a 62% chance that both teams score, so our BTTS tip is Yes.

Will there be over 2.5 goals in Bayern München vs Arsenal?

We estimate a 61% chance of three or more goals, so our tip is Over 2.5 goals.

Are these predictions guaranteed?

No. They are statistical estimates. A 70% tip should still lose about three times in ten, so only stake what you can afford to lose.

How often are predictions updated?

Predictions refresh automatically through the day as new data arrives, and every tip is marked right or wrong after full time.

More Champions League on Wed 21 Oct

FTLille 2-4 GalatasarayOver 1.5 ✓FTComo 4-1 Manchester United12 ✓FTAston Villa 3-1 Viking1 ✓FTReal Madrid 4-1 RB Leipzig1 ✓FTInter 1-0 Shakhtar Donetsk1 ✓FTReal Betis 1-0 Feyenoord1 ✓FTSporting CP 2-3 Lask Linz1 ✗FTClub Brugge KV 3-0 Lens12 ✓

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