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AS Roma vs Real Madrid prediction

AS Roma vs Real Madrid prediction for the Champions League on 14 Oct 2026: Real Madrid or draw (70%). Probabilities, betting markets, form, H2H and stats.

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Wednesday14October 2026
Yesterday: 52/66 correct(79%)
Champions League · League Stage - 2
AS RomaNo recent gamesReal MadridNo recent games
3 - 4Full time · Wed 14 OctHT 1-1
Stadio Olimpico, Rome

Match events

AS RomaReal Madrid
  1. Substitution: Manu KonéOff: Niccolò Pisilli17'
  2. Goal: Marten de RoonAssist: Matias Soule20'
  3. 25'Goal: Kylian MbappéAssist: Yan Diomande
  4. Substitution: Paulo DybalaOff: Rodrigo Mora45'

HT 1-1

  1. Goal: Donyell MalenAssist: Rodrigo Mora51'
  2. Goal: Donyell MalenAssist: Matias Soule57'
  3. VAR: Donyell MalenGoal confirmedVAR58'
  4. 59'Substitution: ViníciusOff: Endrick Felipe Moreira de Sousa
  5. 59'Substitution: Denzel DumfriesOff: Arda Güler
  6. Yellow card: Gianluca ManciniFoul60'
  7. Substitution: Matias SouleOff: Lorenzo Pellegrini63'
  8. Substitution: Gianluca ManciniOff: Leonardo Balerdi63'
  9. Yellow card: Wesley Vinícius França LimaFoul69'
  10. 70'Substitution: Aurelien TchouameniOff: Bernardo Silva
  11. 78'Substitution: Álvaro Fernández CarrerasOff: Marc Cucurella
  12. 78'Substitution: Yan DiomandeOff: Carlos Espí
  13. Substitution: Mario HermosoOff: Konstantinos Koulierakis81'
  14. 83'Goal: Carlos Espí
  15. 83'VARVAR: Carlos EspíGoal confirmed
  16. 85'Goal: Endrick Felipe Moreira de SousaAssist: Arda Güler
  17. Yellow card: Lorenzo PellegriniFoul89'
  18. 90'Goal: Antonio RüdigerAssist: Arda Güler
  19. 90+6'Yellow card: Álvaro Fernández CarrerasFoul

Our verdict

X2 ✓

Real Madrid or draw

Bet365 1.28

70%

✓ This tip was correct · final score 3-4

Expected goals3.2

Win probability

1 · AS Roma30%
Fair odds 3.33
X · Draw24%
Fair odds 4.17
2 · Real Madrid46%
Fair odds 2.17

Match statistics

  • 54%Possession46%
  • 1.50Expected goals (xG)1.84
  • 14Total shots16
  • 7Shots on target8
  • 4Shots off target8
  • 3Blocked shots0
  • 9Shots inside the box10
  • 5Corners9
  • 1Offsides1
  • 15Fouls7
  • 3Yellow cards0
  • 0Red cards0
  • 4Goalkeeper saves4
  • 542Passes457
  • 469Accurate passes384

Line-ups

AS Roma

3-4-2-1

Starting XI

  1. 95P. GolliniG
  2. 23G. ManciniD
  3. 5E. NdickaD
  4. 22HermosoD
  5. 43WesleyM
  6. 15M. de RoonM
  7. 17M. KonéM
  8. 20N. MolinaM
  9. 18M. SouléM
  10. 21P. DybalaM
  11. 14D. MalenF

Substitutes

  1. 77E. LulliD
  2. 86Rodrigo MoraM
  3. 7L. PellegriniM
  4. 61N. PisilliM
  5. 2D. RenschD
  6. 32D. VásquezG
  7. 26L. BalerdiD
  8. 9S. CastroF
  9. 70G. De MarziG
  10. 87D. GhilardiD
  11. 3K. KoulierakisD

Coach: G. Gasperini

Real Madrid

4-2-3-1

Starting XI

  1. 1T. CourtoisG
  2. 24D. DumfriesD
  3. 16I. KonatéD
  4. 22A. RüdigerD
  5. 17Marc CucurellaD
  6. 8F. ValverdeM
  7. 14A. TchouaméniM
  8. 25Y. DiomandeM
  9. 5J. BellinghamM
  10. 7Vinícius JúniorM
  11. 10Kylian MbappéF

Substitutes

  1. 20Bernardo SilvaM
  2. 18Álvaro FernándezD
  3. 21Brahim DíazM
  4. 9EndrickF
  5. 19Carlos EspíF
  6. 15A. GülerM
  7. 4D. HuijsenD
  8. 13A. LuninG
  9. 26Sergio MestreG
  10. 27Thiago PitarchM
  11. 12T. Alexander-ArnoldD
  12. 6E. CamavingaM

Coach: José Mourinho

Betting markets

Expected goals 1.41 – 1.79
0.5 goalsOver95.9%Under4.1%
1.5 goalsOver82.9%Under17.1%
2.5 goalsOver62.0%Under38.0%
3.5 goalsOver39.7%Under60.3%
4.5 goalsOver21.9%Under78.1%

Market percentages come from our model's expected goals for each side. Fair odds are 100 ÷ probability.

Model comparison

AS RomaReal Madrid
50%Form50%
50%Attack50%
50%Defence50%
50%Head to head50%
44%Expected goals56%
39%Overall61%

Last matches

Newest first
AS Roma0W 0D 0L · last 0

No finished matches yet.

Real Madrid0W 0D 0L · last 0

No finished matches yet.

Champions League table

Champions League table
#TeamP+/-Pts
1Paris Saint Germain3+99
2Aston Villa3+99
3Liverpool3+59
4Real Madrid3+59
5Real Betis3+39
6VfB Stuttgart3+57
7Arsenal3+47
8Barcelona3+56
9Como3+56
10Manchester City3+46
11Club Brugge KV3+36
12Sporting CP3+36
13Borussia Dortmund3+16
14Bayern München3+55
15AS Roma3+34
16Atletico Madrid3+14
17Shakhtar Donetsk3+14
18PSV Eindhoven304
19Villarreal303
20Inter3-13
21Manchester United3-13
22Napoli3-23
23Galatasaray3-33
24Lask Linz3-33
25Sabah FA3-33
26Feyenoord3-43
27Lens3-43
28Bodo/Glimt3-53
29AEK Athens FC3-53
30RB Leipzig3-53
31Fenerbahçe3-62
32Slavia Praha3-31
33Viking3-41
34FC Porto3-40
35Lille3-60
36Slovan Bratislava3-120
See full table ›

Top scorers

Champions League top scorers
#PlayerMGoals
1J. MickelsSabah FA114
2E. DemirovićVfB Stuttgart34
3E. HaalandManchester City24
4S. GuirassyBorussia Dortmund34
5H. KaneBayern München34

Season statistics

This season, all competitions we cover
StatAS RomaReal Madrid
Played00
Wins00
Draws00
Losses00
Goals for (avg)00
Goals against (avg)00
Clean sheets00
Failed to score00
Best win streak00

Match preview

AS Roma host Real Madrid in the Champions League (League Stage - 2) at Stadio Olimpico, Rome, with kick-off on Wednesday, 14 October 2026 at 20:00 WAT.

Our prediction model makes Real Madrid slight favourites, giving AS Roma a 30% chance of winning, 24% for the draw and 46% for Real Madrid. Our tip is: Real Madrid or draw.

On the goals markets, we expect goals, with a 62% chance of over 2.5 and a 63% chance that both teams score.

Competition
Europe Champions League
Date
Wednesday, 14 October 2026, 20:00 WAT
Venue
Stadio Olimpico, Rome

TodaysPrediction analysis team

Model-based football predictions. How our predictions work

Quick answers

When is AS Roma vs Real Madrid?

AS Roma vs Real Madrid kicks off on Wednesday, 14 October 2026 at 20:00 West Africa Time.

Which competition is AS Roma vs Real Madrid in?

The match is in the Europe Champions League.

Where are AS Roma and Real Madrid in the table?

AS Roma are 15th and Real Madrid are 4th in the Champions League.

Who will win AS Roma vs Real Madrid?

Our prediction is Real Madrid or draw. Win probabilities: AS Roma 30%, draw 24%, Real Madrid 46%.

Will both teams score in AS Roma vs Real Madrid?

We estimate a 63% chance that both teams score, so our BTTS tip is Yes.

Will there be over 2.5 goals in AS Roma vs Real Madrid?

We estimate a 62% chance of three or more goals, so our tip is Over 2.5 goals.

Are these predictions guaranteed?

No. They are statistical estimates. A 70% tip should still lose about three times in ten, so only stake what you can afford to lose.

How often are predictions updated?

Predictions refresh automatically through the day as new data arrives, and every tip is marked right or wrong after full time.

More Champions League on Wed 14 Oct

FTLask Linz 3-6 Liverpool2 ✓FTFeyenoord 3-2 Como12 ✓FTSlovan Bratislava 0-3 VfB Stuttgart2 ✓FTBodo/Glimt 1-0 Borussia DortmundX2 ✗FTManchester City 2-4 Paris Saint Germain12 ✓FTShakhtar Donetsk 3-1 AEK Athens FCOver 1.5 ✓FTAston Villa 6-0 Fenerbahçe12 ✓FTReal Betis 3-2 FC PortoOver 1.5 ✓

All football predictions for today