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Bayern München vs RB Leipzig prediction

Bayern München vs RB Leipzig prediction for the Bundesliga on 17 Oct 2026: Bayern München to win (77%). Probabilities, betting markets, form, H2H and stats.

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Saturday17October 2026
Yesterday: 52/66 correct(79%)
Bundesliga · Regular Season - 6
Bayern MünchenRB Leipzig
6 - 1Full time · Sat 17 OctHT 3-0
Allianz Arena, Munich

Match events

Bayern MünchenRB Leipzig
  1. Goal: Luis DíazAssist: Joshua Kimmich12'
  2. Goal: Aleksandar PavlovićAssist: Luis Díaz26'
  3. Goal: Michael OliseAssist: Harry Kane34'
  4. 45'Substitution: Ezechiel BanzuziOff: Nicolas Seiwald
  5. 45'Substitution: Christopher NkunkuOff: Tidiam Gomis

HT 3-0

  1. Goal: Luis DíazAssist: Harry Kane47'
  2. Yellow card: Konrad LaimerFoul51'
  3. Goal: Harry KaneAssist: Nathaniel Brown52'
  4. Substitution: Aleksandar PavlovićOff: Tom Bischof59'
  5. Substitution: Konrad LaimerOff: Josip Stanišić59'
  6. Substitution: Harry KaneOff: Lennart Karl59'
  7. Substitution: Ismael SaibariOff: Serge Gnabry59'
  8. 59'Substitution: Lukas KlostermannOff: Benjamin Henrichs
  9. 60'Substitution: Antonio NusaOff: Rômulo José Cardoso da Cruz
  10. Goal: Luis DíazAssist: Michael Olise69'
  11. 71'Substitution: Rocco ReitzOff: Andrija Maksimović
  12. Substitution: Sacha BoeyOff: Kim Min-Jae77'
  13. 90+1'Goal: Andrija MaksimovićAssist: Brajan Gruda

Our verdict

1 ✓

Bayern München to win

Bet365 1.22

77%

✓ This tip was correct · final score 6-1

Expected goals4.5

Win probability

1 · Bayern München77%
Fair odds 1.30
X · Draw13%
Fair odds 7.69
2 · RB Leipzig10%
Fair odds 10.00

Match statistics

  • 62%Possession38%
  • 3.77Expected goals (xG)0.80
  • 29Total shots11
  • 17Shots on target4
  • 3Shots off target3
  • 9Blocked shots4
  • 17Shots inside the box6
  • 11Corners3
  • 4Offsides2
  • 15Fouls6
  • 1Yellow cards0
  • 0Red cards0
  • 3Goalkeeper saves11
  • 666Passes409
  • 601Accurate passes336

Line-ups

Bayern München

4-2-3-1

Starting XI

  1. 40J. UrbigG
  2. 27K. LaimerD
  3. 2D. UpamecanoD
  4. 3Kim Min-JaeD
  5. 11N. BrownD
  6. 6J. KimmichM
  7. 45A. PavlovićM
  8. 17M. OliseM
  9. 34I. SaibariM
  10. 14L. DíazM
  11. 9H. KaneF

Substitutes

  1. 23S. BoeyD
  2. 44J. StanišićD
  3. 19A. DaviesD
  4. 42L. KarlM
  5. 4J. TahD
  6. 26S. UlreichG
  7. 21H. ItoD
  8. 7S. GnabryF
  9. 8T. BischofM

Coach: V. Kompany

RB Leipzig

4-5-1

Starting XI

  1. 26M. VandevoordtG
  2. 16L. KlostermannD
  3. 4W. OrbánD
  4. 23C. LukebaD
  5. 22D. RaumD
  6. 10B. GrudaM
  7. 20R. ReitzM
  8. 21N. El AynaouiM
  9. 6E. BanzuziM
  10. 7A. NusaM
  11. 28C. NkunkuF

Substitutes

  1. 3M. EstèveD
  2. 35Max FinkgräfeD
  3. 39B. HenrichsD
  4. 30A. MaksimovićM
  5. 1Ø. NylandG
  6. 40RômuloF
  7. 13N. SeiwaldM
  8. 17R. BakuD
  9. 27T. GomisF

Coach: M. Demichelis

Betting markets

Expected goals 3.27 – 1.20
0.5 goalsOver98.8%Under1.2%
1.5 goalsOver93.7%Under6.3%
2.5 goalsOver82.2%Under17.8%
3.5 goalsOver65.2%Under34.8%
4.5 goalsOver46.2%Under53.8%

Market percentages come from our model's expected goals for each side. Fair odds are 100 ÷ probability.

Model comparison

Bayern MünchenRB Leipzig
25%Form75%
75%Attack25%
6%Defence94%
50%Head to head50%
73%Expected goals27%
89%Overall11%

Last matches

Newest first
Bayern München0W 1D 0L · last 1
DViking vs Bayern München13 Oct 2026 · Champions League3-3
RB Leipzig1W 0D 0L · last 1
WRB Leipzig vs PSV Eindhoven13 Oct 2026 · Champions League1-0

Bundesliga table

Bundesliga table
#TeamP+/-Pts
1Bayern München8+1918
2Borussia Dortmund8+818
3SC Freiburg8+816
4RB Leipzig8+1115
5Werder Bremen8+315
6Bayer Leverkusen8+213
7SV Elversberg8013
8Eintracht Frankfurt8-511
9FSV Mainz 058010
10FC Augsburg8+39
11VfB Stuttgart8-19
121899 Hoffenheim8-29
131. FC Köln8-39
14SC Paderborn 078-39
15Hamburger SV8-129
16Union Berlin8-127
17FC Schalke 048-56
18Borussia Mönchengladbach8-114
See full table ›

Top scorers

Bundesliga top scorers
#PlayerMGoals
1N. FüllkrugWerder Bremen89
2P. SchickBayer Leverkusen87
3M. OliseBayern München86
4Y. EbnoutalibEintracht Frankfurt86
5E. DemirovićVfB Stuttgart85

Season statistics

This season, all competitions we cover
StatBayern MünchenRB Leipzig
Played11
Wins01
Draws10
Losses00
Goals for (avg)31
Goals against (avg)30
Clean sheets01
Failed to score00
Best win streak01

Recent goal lines

How many of each team's last 1 games went over the line

Over 1.51/10/1
Over 2.51/10/1
Over 3.51/10/1
BTTS – yes1/10/1

Match preview

Bayern München host RB Leipzig in the Bundesliga (Regular Season - 6) at Allianz Arena, Munich, with kick-off on Saturday, 17 October 2026 at 17:30 WAT.

Our prediction model makes Bayern München clear favourites, giving Bayern München a 77% chance of winning, 13% for the draw and 10% for RB Leipzig. Our tip is: Bayern München to win.

Bayern München have taken 1 points from their last 1 games (0W 1D 0L). RB Leipzig have taken 3 points from their last 1 games (1W 0D 0L).

On the goals markets, we expect goals, with a 82% chance of over 2.5 and a 67% chance that both teams score.

Competition
Germany Bundesliga
Date
Saturday, 17 October 2026, 17:30 WAT
Venue
Allianz Arena, Munich

TodaysPrediction analysis team

Model-based football predictions. How our predictions work

Quick answers

When is Bayern München vs RB Leipzig?

Bayern München vs RB Leipzig kicks off on Saturday, 17 October 2026 at 17:30 West Africa Time.

Which competition is Bayern München vs RB Leipzig in?

The match is in the Germany Bundesliga.

Where are Bayern München and RB Leipzig in the table?

Bayern München are 1st and RB Leipzig are 4th in the Bundesliga.

Who will win Bayern München vs RB Leipzig?

Our prediction is Bayern München to win. Win probabilities: Bayern München 77%, draw 13%, RB Leipzig 10%.

Will both teams score in Bayern München vs RB Leipzig?

We estimate a 67% chance that both teams score, so our BTTS tip is Yes.

Will there be over 2.5 goals in Bayern München vs RB Leipzig?

We estimate a 82% chance of three or more goals, so our tip is Over 2.5 goals.

Are these predictions guaranteed?

No. They are statistical estimates. A 70% tip should still lose about three times in ten, so only stake what you can afford to lose.

How often are predictions updated?

Predictions refresh automatically through the day as new data arrives, and every tip is marked right or wrong after full time.

More Bundesliga on Sat 17 Oct

FTSV Elversberg 4-3 FC Augsburg1X ✓FTUnion Berlin 0-0 Borussia Dortmund2 ✗FTWerder Bremen 2-2 SC Paderborn 071X ✓FTFC Schalke 04 0-1 FSV Mainz 05X2 ✓FTHamburger SV 1-0 VfB StuttgartX2 ✗

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