Championship · Regular Season - 11
Match events
Cardiff- 19'Yellow card: Brian Barry-MurphyDissent
- 22'Goal: Jack MoylanAssist: Ollie·Tanner
- 25'Yellow card: Joel BaganFoul
- Substitution: Luke AylingOff: Sebastian Berhalter45'
- 45'Substitution: Joel ColwillOff: David Turnbull
- Substitution: Kyle JosephOff: will lankshear45'
- 45+1'Goal: Ollie·TannerAssist: Jack Moylan
HT 0-2
- Goal: Tommy ConwayAssist: Callum Brittain58'
- Goal: will lankshearAssist: Amario Cozier-Duberry61'
- 63'Substitution: Christopher WillockOff: William Fish
- 73'Substitution: Ronan KpakioOff: Calum Scanlon
- Substitution: Amario Cozier-DuberryOff: Max Arfsten74'
- Substitution: Riley McGreeOff: Myles Peart-Harris79'
- 79'Substitution: Ollie·TannerOff: Isaak Davies
- 83'Red card: Gabriel OshoSerious Foul
- 88'Yellow card: Jack MoylanFoul
- Substitution: Jeremy SarmientoOff: Neto Borges89'
Our verdict
Middlesbrough to win
Bet365 1.53
✗ This tip lost · final score 2-2
Win probability
Match statistics
- 56%Possession44%
- 2.67Expected goals (xG)0.91
- 36Total shots7
- 12Shots on target3
- 11Shots off target3
- 13Blocked shots1
- 23Shots inside the box5
- 11Corners4
- 3Offsides4
- 9Fouls10
- 0Yellow cards2
- 0Red cards1
- 1Goalkeeper saves8
- 488Passes378
- 407Accurate passes308
Line-ups
Middlesbrough
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 1R. VítekG
- 2C. BrittainD
- 12L. AylingD
- 4A. PhillipsD
- 30Neto BorgesD
- 10A. MorrisM
- 29A. MalandaM
- 11A. Cozier-DuberryM
- 8R. McGreeM
- 9T. ConwayM
- 22K. JosephF
Substitutes
- 16J. SarmientoF
- 14M. Peart-HarrisM
- 17M. ArfstenD
- 18C. BarronM
- 6S. BerhalterM
- 31S. BrynnG
- 3S. ByramD
- 19Leo CastledineM
- 7W. LankshearF
Coach: K. Hellberg
Cardiff
4-1-4-1Starting XI
- 1N. TrottG
- 44R. KpakioD
- 5K. BielikD
- 4G. OshoD
- 3J. BaganD
- 18A. RobertsonM
- 11O. TannerM
- 27J. ColwillM
- 45Cian AshfordM
- 16C. WillockM
- 8J. MoylanF
Substitutes
- 2W. FishD
- 43P. MorenoM
- 52T. PerrettM
- 23C. ScanlonD
- 33R. TankiewiczM
- 14D. TurnbullM
- 39I. DaviesF
- 30H. TyrerG
- 50Charlie HoltM
Coach: B. Barry-Murphy
Betting markets
Expected goals 2.27 – 1.20Half time / full time result. 1 = Middlesbrough, X = draw, 2 = Cardiff.
Asian handicap applied to Middlesbrough.
Market percentages come from our model's expected goals for each side. Fair odds are 100 ÷ probability.
Model comparison
Last matches
Newest firstMiddlesbrough1W 0D 0L · last 1Cardiff1W 0D 0L · last 1Championship table
| # | Team | P | +/- | Pts | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Middlesbrough | 13 | 8 | 4 | 1 | +13 | 28 | WWDWW |
| 2 | Swansea | 13 | 8 | 2 | 3 | +7 | 26 | WLLWW |
| 3 | Wolves | 13 | 7 | 3 | 3 | +7 | 24 | WWDWL |
| 4 | West Brom | 13 | 7 | 3 | 3 | +5 | 24 | WDWWL |
| 5 | Southampton | 13 | 8 | 3 | 2 | +15 | 23 | WWDWW |
| 6 | Birmingham | 13 | 6 | 5 | 2 | +10 | 23 | WLWWW |
| 7 | Stoke City | 13 | 7 | 2 | 4 | +4 | 23 | WDWLW |
| 8 | West Ham | 13 | 6 | 4 | 3 | +15 | 22 | LLWWD |
| 9 | QPR | 13 | 5 | 5 | 3 | +5 | 20 | LWLWD |
| 10 | Sheffield Utd | 13 | 5 | 4 | 4 | +2 | 19 | WDWLW |
| 11 | Portsmouth | 13 | 5 | 4 | 4 | +1 | 19 | DWDWW |
| 12 | Millwall | 13 | 5 | 3 | 5 | +2 | 18 | WLDLW |
| 13 | Blackburn | 13 | 5 | 3 | 5 | -1 | 18 | LWLWW |
| 14 | Bristol City | 13 | 5 | 3 | 5 | -2 | 18 | WDLLD |
| 15 | Norwich | 13 | 5 | 0 | 8 | -1 | 15 | WWLLL |
| 16 | Lincoln | 13 | 4 | 3 | 6 | -9 | 15 | LWDLL |
| 17 | Cardiff | 13 | 3 | 5 | 5 | -1 | 14 | LWDWL |
| 18 | Wrexham | 13 | 3 | 5 | 5 | -4 | 14 | LLWLD |
| 19 | Bolton | 13 | 4 | 2 | 7 | -8 | 14 | LLDWL |
| 20 | Charlton | 13 | 3 | 5 | 5 | -10 | 14 | LLLDD |
| 21 | Watford | 13 | 3 | 2 | 8 | -11 | 11 | LLWLL |
| 22 | Burnley | 13 | 1 | 6 | 6 | -8 | 9 | DLLDW |
| 23 | Derby | 13 | 1 | 4 | 8 | -14 | 7 | LDLLD |
| 24 | Preston | 13 | 1 | 2 | 10 | -17 | 5 | LDLLL |
Top scorers
| # | Player | M | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  W. LankshearMiddlesbrough | 13 | 13 |
| 2 |  A. GuðjohnsenBlackburn | 12 | 8 |
| 3 |  C. LarinSouthampton | 11 | 7 |
| 4 |  J. BowenWest Ham | 13 | 7 |
| 5 |  Fer LópezWolves | 12 | 6 |
Season statistics
This season, all competitions we cover| Stat | Middlesbrough | Cardiff |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 1 | 1 |
| Wins | 1 | 1 |
| Draws | 0 | 0 |
| Losses | 0 | 0 |
| Goals for (avg) | 3 | 5 |
| Goals against (avg) | 2 | 1 |
| Clean sheets | 0 | 0 |
| Failed to score | 0 | 0 |
| Best win streak | 1 | 1 |
Recent goal lines
How many of each team's last 1 games went over the line
| Over 1.5 | 1/1 | 1/1 |
|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 | 1/1 | 1/1 |
| Over 3.5 | 1/1 | 1/1 |
| BTTS – yes | 1/1 | 1/1 |
Match preview
Middlesbrough host Cardiff in the Championship (Regular Season - 11) at Riverside Stadium, Middlesbrough, with kick-off on Saturday, 17 October 2026 at 12:30 WAT.
Our prediction model makes Middlesbrough favourites, giving Middlesbrough a 61% chance of winning, 20% for the draw and 19% for Cardiff. Our tip is: Middlesbrough to win.
Middlesbrough have taken 3 points from their last 1 games (1W 0D 0L). Cardiff have taken 3 points from their last 1 games (1W 0D 0L).
On the goals markets, we expect goals, with a 67% chance of over 2.5 and a 63% chance that both teams score.
- Competition
- England Championship
- Date
- Saturday, 17 October 2026, 12:30 WAT
- Venue
- Riverside Stadium, Middlesbrough
TodaysPrediction analysis team
Model-based football predictions. How our predictions work
Quick answers
When is Middlesbrough vs Cardiff?
Middlesbrough vs Cardiff kicks off on Saturday, 17 October 2026 at 12:30 West Africa Time.
Which competition is Middlesbrough vs Cardiff in?
The match is in the England Championship.
Where are Middlesbrough and Cardiff in the table?
Middlesbrough are 1st and Cardiff are 17th in the Championship.
Who will win Middlesbrough vs Cardiff?
Our prediction is Middlesbrough to win. Win probabilities: Middlesbrough 61%, draw 20%, Cardiff 19%.
Will both teams score in Middlesbrough vs Cardiff?
We estimate a 63% chance that both teams score, so our BTTS tip is Yes.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Middlesbrough vs Cardiff?
We estimate a 67% chance of three or more goals, so our tip is Over 2.5 goals.
Are these predictions guaranteed?
No. They are statistical estimates. A 70% tip should still lose about three times in ten, so only stake what you can afford to lose.
How often are predictions updated?
Predictions refresh automatically through the day as new data arrives, and every tip is marked right or wrong after full time.