Championship · Regular Season - 11
Match events
Stoke City- 38'Substitution: Eric Junior BocatOff: Luca Bombino
- 45'Substitution: Jack McglynnOff: George Hirst
HT 0-0
- 49'Goal: Luke GrahamAssist: Ethan Galbraith
- Substitution: Lewis TravisOff: Rhian Brewster52'
- 68'Substitution: Bosun LawalOff: Maksym Taloverov
- 68'Substitution: Lamine CisséOff: Róbert Boženík
- Substitution: Mohammed FuseiniOff: Henrik Wendel Meister73'
- Yellow card: D. OzohFoul76'
- Substitution: Bobby ClarkOff: Corey Blackett-Taylor87'
- Substitution: Ryan HedgesOff: Filip Bilbija87'
- Substitution: Sammie SzmodicsOff: Lars-Jørgen Salvesen87'
- 87'Substitution: Justin DevennyOff: Junior Tchamadeu
Our verdict
Stoke City or draw
Bet365 1.40
✓ This tip was correct · final score 0-1
Win probability
Match statistics
- 53%Possession47%
- 0.97Expected goals (xG)0.55
- 17Total shots12
- 3Shots on target4
- 4Shots off target5
- 10Blocked shots3
- 14Shots inside the box3
- 6Corners4
- 2Offsides2
- 12Fouls10
- 1Yellow cards0
- 0Red cards0
- 3Goalkeeper saves3
- 357Passes323
- 289Accurate passes245
Line-ups
Derby
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 31J. VickersG
- 23J. WardD
- 24R. NyambeD
- 28D. SandersonD
- 26R. HedgesD
- 4D. OzohM
- 27L. TravisM
- 16M. FuseiniM
- 8B. ClarkM
- 11S. SzmodicsM
- 9C. MorrisF
Substitutes
- 13F. BilbijaM
- 33C. Blackett-TaylorF
- 10R. BrewsterF
- 29O. FrauloM
- 19H. MeisterF
- 12R. O'DonnellG
- 15L. SalvesenF
- 42Raymond OfforD
- 43I. GordonD
Coach: J. Eustace
Stoke City
3-4-3Starting XI
- 1V. JohanssonG
- 18B. LawalD
- 16B. WilmotD
- 5L. GrahamD
- 2B. JohnsonM
- 27El Hadji Djibril SoumaréM
- 8E. GalbraithM
- 17E. BocatM
- 7J. McGlynnF
- 11L. CisséF
- 13J. DevennyF
Substitutes
- 15G. HirstF
- 42M. ManhoefF
- 4B. PearsonM
- 40M. TalovierovD
- 22J. TchamadeuD
- 9R. BoženíkF
- 24J. GriffithsG
- 21L. BombinoD
- 10Bae Jun-HoM
Coach: M. Robins
Betting markets
Expected goals 1.26 – 1.45Half time / full time result. 1 = Derby, X = draw, 2 = Stoke City.
Asian handicap applied to Derby.
Market percentages come from our model's expected goals for each side. Fair odds are 100 ÷ probability.
Model comparison
Last matches
Newest firstDerby0W 0D 1L · last 1Stoke City0W 0D 1L · last 1Championship table
| # | Team | P | +/- | Pts | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Middlesbrough | 13 | 8 | 4 | 1 | +13 | 28 | WWDWW |
| 2 | Swansea | 13 | 8 | 2 | 3 | +7 | 26 | WLLWW |
| 3 | Wolves | 13 | 7 | 3 | 3 | +7 | 24 | WWDWL |
| 4 | West Brom | 13 | 7 | 3 | 3 | +5 | 24 | WDWWL |
| 5 | Southampton | 13 | 8 | 3 | 2 | +15 | 23 | WWDWW |
| 6 | Birmingham | 13 | 6 | 5 | 2 | +10 | 23 | WLWWW |
| 7 | Stoke City | 13 | 7 | 2 | 4 | +4 | 23 | WDWLW |
| 8 | West Ham | 13 | 6 | 4 | 3 | +15 | 22 | LLWWD |
| 9 | QPR | 13 | 5 | 5 | 3 | +5 | 20 | LWLWD |
| 10 | Sheffield Utd | 13 | 5 | 4 | 4 | +2 | 19 | WDWLW |
| 11 | Portsmouth | 13 | 5 | 4 | 4 | +1 | 19 | DWDWW |
| 12 | Millwall | 13 | 5 | 3 | 5 | +2 | 18 | WLDLW |
| 13 | Blackburn | 13 | 5 | 3 | 5 | -1 | 18 | LWLWW |
| 14 | Bristol City | 13 | 5 | 3 | 5 | -2 | 18 | WDLLD |
| 15 | Norwich | 13 | 5 | 0 | 8 | -1 | 15 | WWLLL |
| 16 | Lincoln | 13 | 4 | 3 | 6 | -9 | 15 | LWDLL |
| 17 | Cardiff | 13 | 3 | 5 | 5 | -1 | 14 | LWDWL |
| 18 | Wrexham | 13 | 3 | 5 | 5 | -4 | 14 | LLWLD |
| 19 | Bolton | 13 | 4 | 2 | 7 | -8 | 14 | LLDWL |
| 20 | Charlton | 13 | 3 | 5 | 5 | -10 | 14 | LLLDD |
| 21 | Watford | 13 | 3 | 2 | 8 | -11 | 11 | LLWLL |
| 22 | Burnley | 13 | 1 | 6 | 6 | -8 | 9 | DLLDW |
| 23 | Derby | 13 | 1 | 4 | 8 | -14 | 7 | LDLLD |
| 24 | Preston | 13 | 1 | 2 | 10 | -17 | 5 | LDLLL |
Top scorers
| # | Player | M | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  W. LankshearMiddlesbrough | 13 | 13 |
| 2 |  A. GuðjohnsenBlackburn | 12 | 8 |
| 3 |  C. LarinSouthampton | 11 | 7 |
| 4 |  J. BowenWest Ham | 13 | 7 |
| 5 |  Fer LópezWolves | 12 | 6 |
Season statistics
This season, all competitions we cover| Stat | Derby | Stoke City |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 1 | 1 |
| Wins | 0 | 0 |
| Draws | 0 | 0 |
| Losses | 1 | 1 |
| Goals for (avg) | 1 | 2 |
| Goals against (avg) | 4 | 3 |
| Clean sheets | 0 | 0 |
| Failed to score | 0 | 0 |
| Best win streak | 0 | 0 |
Recent goal lines
How many of each team's last 1 games went over the line
| Over 1.5 | 1/1 | 1/1 |
|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 | 1/1 | 1/1 |
| Over 3.5 | 1/1 | 1/1 |
| BTTS – yes | 1/1 | 1/1 |
Match preview
Derby host Stoke City in the Championship (Regular Season - 11) at Pride Park Stadium, Derby, with kick-off on Saturday, 17 October 2026 at 15:00 WAT.
Our prediction model makes Stoke City slight favourites, giving Derby a 32% chance of winning, 27% for the draw and 41% for Stoke City. Our tip is: Stoke City or draw.
Derby have taken 0 points from their last 1 games (0W 0D 1L). Stoke City have taken 0 points from their last 1 games (0W 0D 1L).
On the goals markets, we expect goals, with a 51% chance of over 2.5 and a 55% chance that both teams score.
- Competition
- England Championship
- Date
- Saturday, 17 October 2026, 15:00 WAT
- Venue
- Pride Park Stadium, Derby
TodaysPrediction analysis team
Model-based football predictions. How our predictions work
Quick answers
When is Derby vs Stoke City?
Derby vs Stoke City kicks off on Saturday, 17 October 2026 at 15:00 West Africa Time.
Which competition is Derby vs Stoke City in?
The match is in the England Championship.
Where are Derby and Stoke City in the table?
Derby are 23rd and Stoke City are 7th in the Championship.
Who will win Derby vs Stoke City?
Our prediction is Stoke City or draw. Win probabilities: Derby 32%, draw 27%, Stoke City 41%.
Will both teams score in Derby vs Stoke City?
We estimate a 55% chance that both teams score, so our BTTS tip is Yes.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Derby vs Stoke City?
We estimate a 51% chance of three or more goals, so our tip is Over 2.5 goals.
Are these predictions guaranteed?
No. They are statistical estimates. A 70% tip should still lose about three times in ten, so only stake what you can afford to lose.
How often are predictions updated?
Predictions refresh automatically through the day as new data arrives, and every tip is marked right or wrong after full time.