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QPR vs Derby prediction

QPR vs Derby prediction for the Championship on 14 Oct 2026: Over 1.5 (74%). Probabilities, betting markets, form, H2H and stats.

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Wednesday14October 2026
Yesterday: 52/66 correct(79%)
Championship · Regular Season - 10
QPRNo recent gamesDerbyNo recent games
4 - 1Full time · Wed 14 OctHT 3-0
Loftus Road, London

Match events

QPRDerby
  1. 12'Substitution: Sondre LangasOff: Ryan Nyambe
  2. Goal: Alfie LloydAssist: Boy Kemper18'
  3. Penalty goal: Nicolas Madsen (pen)22'
  4. 24'Yellow card: D. OzohFoul
  5. 28'Yellow card: John EustaceDissent
  6. 44'Yellow card: Sammie SzmodicsFoul
  7. Goal: Harvey Vale45'
  8. 45'Substitution: Lewis TravisOff: D. Ozoh
  9. 45'Substitution: Mohammed FuseiniOff: Henrik Wendel Meister

HT 3-0

  1. 56'Yellow card: Henrik Wendel MeisterFoul
  2. Yellow card: Harvey ValeDissent57'
  3. Yellow card: Glen KamaraFoul60'
  4. Substitution: Richard KoneOff: Rayan Jawad Kolli62'
  5. Substitution: Alfie LloydOff: Jonathan Varane62'
  6. Substitution: Harvey ValeOff: Kwame Poku62'
  7. 63'Substitution: Carlton MorrisOff: Lars-Jørgen Salvesen
  8. Goal: Paul SmythAssist: Nicolas Madsen68'
  9. 70'Substitution: Sammie SzmodicsOff: Filip Bilbija
  10. Substitution: Boy KemperOff: Amadou Salif Mbengue72'
  11. Substitution: Paul SmythOff: Leon Scarlett77'
  12. 90+10'Goal: Lars-Jørgen Salvesen

Our verdict

Over 1.5 ✓

Over 1.5

Bet365 1.28

74%

✓ This tip was correct · final score 4-1

Expected goals2.6

Win probability

1 · QPR52%
Fair odds 1.92
X · Draw26%
Fair odds 3.85
2 · Derby22%
Fair odds 4.55

Match statistics

  • 48%Possession52%
  • 1.60Expected goals (xG)0.80
  • 9Total shots15
  • 7Shots on target6
  • 2Shots off target5
  • 0Blocked shots4
  • 6Shots inside the box13
  • 1Corners3
  • 0Offsides2
  • 9Fouls10
  • 2Yellow cards3
  • 0Red cards0
  • 5Goalkeeper saves3
  • 438Passes460
  • 362Accurate passes362

Line-ups

QPR

4-2-3-1

Starting XI

  1. 1P. CharlesG
  2. 2K. AdamsonD
  3. 3J. DunneD
  4. 5R. EdwardsD
  5. 12B. KemperD
  6. 24N. MadsenM
  7. 18G. KamaraM
  8. 11P. SmythM
  9. 20H. ValeM
  10. 15A. LloydM
  11. 26Rayan Jawad KolliF

Substitutes

  1. 23I. AlemayehuM
  2. 6J. Clarke-SalterD
  3. 22R. KoneF
  4. 27A. MbengueD
  5. 4L. MorrisonD
  6. 17K. PokuM
  7. 40J. VaraneM
  8. 13C. WardG
  9. 33Leon ScarlettF

Coach: Julien Stéphan

Derby

4-2-3-1

Starting XI

  1. 31J. VickersG
  2. 23J. WardD
  3. 6S. LangåsD
  4. 28D. SandersonD
  5. 26R. HedgesD
  6. 4D. OzohM
  7. 20A. MowattM
  8. 16M. FuseiniM
  9. 8B. ClarkM
  10. 11S. SzmodicsM
  11. 9C. MorrisF

Substitutes

  1. 10R. BrewsterF
  2. 29O. FrauloM
  3. 19H. MeisterF
  4. 24R. NyambeD
  5. 12R. O'DonnellG
  6. 15L. SalvesenF
  7. 27L. TravisM
  8. 33C. Blackett-TaylorF
  9. 13F. BilbijaM

Coach: J. Eustace

Betting markets

Expected goals 1.64 – 0.99
0.5 goalsOver92.8%Under7.2%
1.5 goalsOver73.8%Under26.2%
2.5 goalsOver48.9%Under51.1%
3.5 goalsOver27.1%Under72.9%
4.5 goalsOver12.7%Under87.3%

Market percentages come from our model's expected goals for each side. Fair odds are 100 ÷ probability.

Model comparison

QPRDerby
50%Form50%
50%Attack50%
50%Defence50%
50%Head to head50%
62%Expected goals38%
70%Overall30%

Last matches

Newest first
QPR0W 0D 0L · last 0

No finished matches yet.

Derby0W 0D 0L · last 0

No finished matches yet.

Championship table

Championship table
#TeamP+/-Pts
1Middlesbrough13+1328
2Swansea13+726
3Wolves13+724
4West Brom13+524
5Southampton13+1523
6Birmingham13+1023
7Stoke City13+423
8West Ham13+1522
9QPR13+520
10Sheffield Utd13+219
11Portsmouth13+119
12Millwall13+218
13Blackburn13-118
14Bristol City13-218
15Norwich13-115
16Lincoln13-915
17Cardiff13-114
18Wrexham13-414
19Bolton13-814
20Charlton13-1014
21Watford13-1111
22Burnley13-89
23Derby13-147
24Preston13-175
See full table ›

Top scorers

Championship top scorers
#PlayerMGoals
1W. LankshearMiddlesbrough1313
2A. GuðjohnsenBlackburn128
3C. LarinSouthampton117
4J. BowenWest Ham137
5Fer LópezWolves126

Season statistics

This season, all competitions we cover
StatQPRDerby
Played00
Wins00
Draws00
Losses00
Goals for (avg)00
Goals against (avg)00
Clean sheets00
Failed to score00
Best win streak00

Match preview

QPR host Derby in the Championship (Regular Season - 10) at Loftus Road, London, with kick-off on Wednesday, 14 October 2026 at 19:45 WAT.

Our prediction model makes QPR favourites, giving QPR a 52% chance of winning, 26% for the draw and 22% for Derby. Our tip is: Over 1.5.

On the goals markets, we expect a tighter game, with only a 49% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 51% chance that both teams score.

Competition
England Championship
Date
Wednesday, 14 October 2026, 19:45 WAT
Venue
Loftus Road, London

TodaysPrediction analysis team

Model-based football predictions. How our predictions work

Quick answers

When is QPR vs Derby?

QPR vs Derby kicks off on Wednesday, 14 October 2026 at 19:45 West Africa Time.

Which competition is QPR vs Derby in?

The match is in the England Championship.

Where are QPR and Derby in the table?

QPR are 9th and Derby are 23rd in the Championship.

Who will win QPR vs Derby?

Our prediction is Over 1.5. Win probabilities: QPR 52%, draw 26%, Derby 22%.

Will both teams score in QPR vs Derby?

We estimate a 51% chance that both teams score, so our BTTS tip is Yes.

Will there be over 2.5 goals in QPR vs Derby?

We estimate a 49% chance of three or more goals, so our tip is Under 2.5 goals.

Are these predictions guaranteed?

No. They are statistical estimates. A 70% tip should still lose about three times in ten, so only stake what you can afford to lose.

How often are predictions updated?

Predictions refresh automatically through the day as new data arrives, and every tip is marked right or wrong after full time.

More Championship on Wed 14 Oct

FTPortsmouth 3-2 Sheffield UtdOver 1.5 ✓FTNorwich 0-1 Southampton12 ✓FTLincoln 0-6 West HamOver 1.5 ✓

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