Eredivisie · Regular Season - 11
Match events
AZ Alkmaar- Goal: Tolu ArokodareAssist: Abdellah Ouazane9'
- 26'Yellow card: Weslley Pinto BatistaFoul
- Yellow card: Abdellah OuazaneFoul30'
- Substitution: Julian BrandtOff: Oscar Gloukh38'
- 44'Yellow card: Mees de WitFoul
- 45'Substitution: Wouter GoesOff: Wesley Hoedt
HT 1-0
- 60'Substitution: Valdemar Byskov AndreasenOff: Calvin Stengs
- Substitution: Davy KlaassenOff: Yves Bissouma60'
- Substitution: Abdellah OuazaneOff: Marcos Leonardo Santos Almeida60'
- Substitution: Jorthy MokioOff: Daley Blind74'
- Substitution: Tolu ArokodareOff: Steven Berghuis74'
- 78'Substitution: Elijah DijkstraOff: Denso Kasius
- 78'Substitution: Mees de WitOff: Mateo Chávez
- 85'Substitution: Lewis SchoutenOff: Bendegúz Kovács
Our verdict
Ajax or draw
Bet365 1.25
✓ This tip was correct · final score 1-0
Win probability
Match statistics
- 48%Possession52%
- 0.70Expected goals (xG)1.11
- 9Total shots19
- 2Shots on target5
- 6Shots off target7
- 1Blocked shots7
- 7Shots inside the box11
- 1Corners8
- 0Offsides4
- 12Fouls12
- 1Yellow cards2
- 0Red cards0
- 5Goalkeeper saves1
- 482Passes502
- 419Accurate passes451
Line-ups
Ajax
4-3-3Starting XI
- 1M. ter StegenG
- 2Lucas RosaD
- 30A. BouwmanD
- 15Y. BaasD
- 5O. WijndalD
- 24J. MokioM
- 4S. AmrabatM
- 8J. BrandtM
- 18D. KlaassenF
- 99T. ArokodareF
- 68A. OuazaneF
Substitutes
- 23S. BerghuisF
- 6T. KehrerD
- 67Mohamed AbdallaM
- 28Y. BissoumaM
- 17D. BlindD
- 43Rayane BounidaF
- 10O. GloukhM
- 36D. JanseD
- 26M. PaesG
- 49D. PugnoF
- 38Marcos LeonardoF
- 21Jofre TorrentsD
Coach: Míchel
AZ Alkmaar
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 28J. De BusserG
- 22E. DijkstraD
- 3W. GoesD
- 4L. SchoutenD
- 34M. de WitD
- 6P. KoopmeinersM
- 21D. KwakmanM
- 7Weslley PatatiM
- 17V. ByskovM
- 11R. DaalM
- 9M. MeerdinkF
Substitutes
- 54Jerolldino BergraafF
- 27Wassim bouzianeF
- 5M. ChávezD
- 8J. ClasieM
- 29W. HoedtD
- 30D. KasiusD
- 18B. KovacsF
- 2S. MaikumaD
- 20A. NataliD
- 1R. Owusu-OduroG
- 14C. StengsM
- 75H. de WitM
Coach: L. Echteld
Betting markets
Expected goals 2.05 – 1.43Half time / full time result. 1 = Ajax, X = draw, 2 = AZ Alkmaar.
Asian handicap applied to Ajax.
Market percentages come from our model's expected goals for each side. Fair odds are 100 ÷ probability.
Model comparison
Last matches
Newest firstAjax3W 0D 1L · last 4AZ Alkmaar2W 1D 1L · last 4Eredivisie table
| # | Team | P | +/- | Pts | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Feyenoord | 11 | 7 | 4 | 0 | +21 | 25 | DDWWW |
| 2 | Ajax | 11 | 7 | 3 | 1 | +17 | 24 | WWWDD |
| 3 | PSV Eindhoven | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | +22 | 23 | WDLWL |
| 4 | Twente | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | +9 | 20 | WLDWW |
| 5 | AZ Alkmaar | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | +7 | 20 | LLDLW |
| 6 | Fortuna Sittard | 11 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 19 | DWDDW |
| 7 | Heerenveen | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | +6 | 18 | WWWLW |
| 8 | Groningen | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | +3 | 15 | DLWWD |
| 9 | Cambuur | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | +1 | 15 | WWDWD |
| 10 | GO Ahead Eagles | 11 | 3 | 5 | 3 | -4 | 14 | LWLDD |
| 11 | Utrecht | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | -10 | 12 | DWWLW |
| 12 | Excelsior | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | -3 | 11 | LLLDL |
| 13 | NEC Nijmegen | 11 | 2 | 5 | 4 | -2 | 11 | LDDDD |
| 14 | PEC Zwolle | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | -11 | 11 | WDWLL |
| 15 | Sparta Rotterdam | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | -7 | 9 | LWDLL |
| 16 | Telstar | 10 | 1 | 3 | 6 | -9 | 6 | LLDLD |
| 17 | ADO Den Haag | 11 | 1 | 3 | 7 | -11 | 6 | LLWDD |
| 18 | Willem II | 11 | 0 | 2 | 9 | -29 | 2 | LLLLL |
Top scorers
| # | Player | M | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  S. TengstedtGO Ahead Eagles | 11 | 8 |
| 2 |  B. WillumssonGroningen | 10 | 8 |
| 3 |  G. TilPSV Eindhoven | 11 | 7 |
| 4 |  J. BrandtAjax | 11 | 6 |
| 5 |  J. TrenskowHeerenveen | 11 | 6 |
Season statistics
This season, all competitions we cover| Stat | Ajax | AZ Alkmaar |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 4 | 4 |
| Wins | 3 | 2 |
| Draws | 0 | 1 |
| Losses | 1 | 1 |
| Goals for (avg) | 2.5 | 2 |
| Goals against (avg) | 1.3 | 1.3 |
| Clean sheets | 1 | 1 |
| Failed to score | 0 | 1 |
| Best win streak | 3 | 1 |
Recent goal lines
How many of each team's last 4 games went over the line
| Over 1.5 | 4/4 | 4/4 |
|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 | 3/4 | 3/4 |
| Over 3.5 | 1/4 | 2/4 |
| BTTS – yes | 3/4 | 2/4 |
Match preview
Ajax host AZ Alkmaar in the Eredivisie (Regular Season - 11) at Johan Cruijff Arena, Amsterdam, with kick-off on Saturday, 31 October 2026 at 21:00 WAT.
Our prediction model makes Ajax favourites, giving Ajax a 52% chance of winning, 22% for the draw and 26% for AZ Alkmaar. Our tip is: Ajax or draw.
Ajax have taken 9 points from their last 4 games (3W 0D 1L). AZ Alkmaar have taken 7 points from their last 4 games (2W 1D 1L).
On the goals markets, we expect goals, with a 68% chance of over 2.5 and a 67% chance that both teams score.
- Competition
- Netherlands Eredivisie
- Date
- Saturday, 31 October 2026, 21:00 WAT
- Venue
- Johan Cruijff Arena, Amsterdam
TodaysPrediction analysis team
Model-based football predictions. How our predictions work
Quick answers
When is Ajax vs AZ Alkmaar?
Ajax vs AZ Alkmaar kicks off on Saturday, 31 October 2026 at 21:00 West Africa Time.
Which competition is Ajax vs AZ Alkmaar in?
The match is in the Netherlands Eredivisie.
Where are Ajax and AZ Alkmaar in the table?
Ajax are 2nd and AZ Alkmaar are 5th in the Eredivisie.
Who will win Ajax vs AZ Alkmaar?
Our prediction is Ajax or draw. Win probabilities: Ajax 52%, draw 22%, AZ Alkmaar 26%.
Will both teams score in Ajax vs AZ Alkmaar?
We estimate a 67% chance that both teams score, so our BTTS tip is Yes.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Ajax vs AZ Alkmaar?
We estimate a 68% chance of three or more goals, so our tip is Over 2.5 goals.
Are these predictions guaranteed?
No. They are statistical estimates. A 70% tip should still lose about three times in ten, so only stake what you can afford to lose.
How often are predictions updated?
Predictions refresh automatically through the day as new data arrives, and every tip is marked right or wrong after full time.