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Sparta Rotterdam vs Ajax prediction

Sparta Rotterdam vs Ajax prediction for the Eredivisie on 25 Oct 2026: Ajax to win (64%). Probabilities, betting markets, form, H2H and stats.

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Sunday25October 2026
Yesterday: 52/66 correct(79%)
Eredivisie · Regular Season - 10
Sparta RotterdamAjax
1 - 2Full time · Sun 25 OctHT 1-2
Sparta Stadium Het Kasteel, Rotterdam

Match events

Sparta RotterdamAjax
  1. 22'Goal: Abdellah OuazaneAssist: Julian Brandt
  2. Goal: Jens ToornstraAssist: Isaac Achmed Koroma Junior Babadi43'
  3. 45'Substitution: Viktor TsygankovOff: Davy Klaassen
  4. 45+1'Goal: Tolu ArokodareAssist: Julian Brandt

HT 1-2

  1. Substitution: Jens ToornstraOff: Mitchell Van Bergen56'
  2. 61'Substitution: Abdellah OuazaneOff: Oscar Gloukh
  3. 61'Substitution: Jorthy MokioOff: Yves Bissouma
  4. 64'Yellow card: Julian BrandtFoul
  5. Substitution: Andrej KostićOff: Robin van Cruijsen70'
  6. 79'Substitution: Youri BaasOff: Owen Wijndal
  7. Substitution: Marvin YoungOff: Teo Quintero León84'
  8. Substitution: Bruno Martins IndiOff: Casper Terho84'
  9. Yellow card: Isaac Achmed Koroma Junior BabadiFoul89'
  10. 90+3'Yellow card: Lucas Oliveira·RosaTime Wasting
  11. 90+4'Substitution: Dies JanseOff: Daley Blind

Our verdict

2 ✓

Ajax to win

Bet365 1.53

64%

✓ This tip was correct · final score 1-2

Expected goals3.7

Win probability

1 · Sparta Rotterdam17%
Fair odds 5.88
X · Draw19%
Fair odds 5.26
2 · Ajax64%
Fair odds 1.56

Match statistics

  • 41%Possession59%
  • 0.93Expected goals (xG)1.26
  • 11Total shots16
  • 5Shots on target4
  • 2Shots off target8
  • 4Blocked shots4
  • 10Shots inside the box14
  • 5Corners3
  • 3Offsides1
  • 15Fouls7
  • 1Yellow cards2
  • 0Red cards0
  • 2Goalkeeper saves3
  • 403Passes620
  • 326Accurate passes539

Line-ups

Sparta Rotterdam

5-4-1

Starting XI

  1. 1M. BrouwerG
  2. 2L. MartesD
  3. 3M. YoungD
  4. 6N. VerschurenD
  5. 4B. Martins IndiD
  6. 5B. KuipersD
  7. 7Robin van CruijsenM
  8. 8J. ToornstraM
  9. 10Cedric HatenboerM
  10. 11I. BabadiM
  11. 9M. ZonneveldF

Substitutes

  1. 15G. VianelloD
  2. 17M. van BergenF
  3. 21C. TerhoF
  4. 18A. RoaldsøyM
  5. 12B. ReithD
  6. 14Teo QuinteroD
  7. 30P. KuiperG
  8. 19Andrej KostićF
  9. 22Joel IdehoF
  10. 20F. BednarekG
  11. 16J. BaasM

Coach: R. Meijer

Ajax

4-3-3

Starting XI

  1. 1M. ter StegenG
  2. 2Lucas RosaD
  3. 6T. KehrerD
  4. 36D. JanseD
  5. 15Y. BaasD
  6. 24J. MokioM
  7. 4S. AmrabatM
  8. 8J. BrandtM
  9. 11V. TsygankovF
  10. 99T. ArokodareF
  11. 68A. OuazaneF

Substitutes

  1. 17D. BlindD
  2. 28Y. BissoumaM
  3. 43Rayane BounidaF
  4. 30A. BouwmanD
  5. 10O. GloukhM
  6. 22J. HeerkensG
  7. 18D. KlaassenM
  8. 26M. PaesG
  9. 38Marcos LeonardoF
  10. 21Jofre TorrentsD
  11. 5O. WijndalD
  12. 67Mohamed AbdallaM

Coach: Míchel

Betting markets

Expected goals 1.23 – 2.47
0.5 goalsOver97.5%Under2.5%
1.5 goalsOver88.4%Under11.6%
2.5 goalsOver71.5%Under28.5%
3.5 goalsOver50.6%Under49.4%
4.5 goalsOver31.3%Under68.7%

Market percentages come from our model's expected goals for each side. Fair odds are 100 ÷ probability.

Model comparison

Sparta RotterdamAjax
33%Form67%
53%Attack47%
39%Defence61%
50%Head to head50%
33%Expected goals67%
21%Overall79%

Last matches

Newest first
Sparta Rotterdam1W 0D 0L · last 1
WSparta Rotterdam vs Willem II17 Oct 2026 · Eredivisie3-2
Ajax2W 0D 1L · last 3
WAjax vs Atalanta22 Oct 2026 · Conference League2-0WGroningen vs Ajax18 Oct 2026 · Eredivisie2-5LHNK Hajduk Split vs Ajax15 Oct 2026 · Conference League2-1

Eredivisie table

Eredivisie table
#TeamP+/-Pts
1Feyenoord11+2125
2Ajax11+1724
3PSV Eindhoven11+2223
4Twente11+1823
5AZ Alkmaar11+720
6Fortuna Sittard11019
7Heerenveen11+618
8Groningen11+215
9Cambuur11+115
10GO Ahead Eagles11-414
11Sparta Rotterdam11-612
12Utrecht11-1212
13NEC Nijmegen11-211
14PEC Zwolle11-1111
15Excelsior11-1211
16Telstar11-79
17ADO Den Haag11-116
18Willem II11-292
See full table ›

Top scorers

Eredivisie top scorers
#PlayerMGoals
1S. TengstedtGO Ahead Eagles118
2B. WillumssonGroningen118
3W. WeghorstTwente118
4M. ZonneveldSparta Rotterdam117
5G. TilPSV Eindhoven117

Season statistics

This season, all competitions we cover
StatSparta RotterdamAjax
Played13
Wins12
Draws00
Losses01
Goals for (avg)32.7
Goals against (avg)21.3
Clean sheets01
Failed to score00
Best win streak12

Recent goal lines

How many of each team's last 3 games went over the line

Over 1.51/13/3
Over 2.51/12/3
Over 3.51/11/3
BTTS – yes1/12/3

Match preview

Sparta Rotterdam host Ajax in the Eredivisie (Regular Season - 10) at Sparta Stadium Het Kasteel, Rotterdam, with kick-off on Sunday, 25 October 2026 at 16:45 WAT.

Our prediction model makes Ajax favourites, giving Sparta Rotterdam a 17% chance of winning, 19% for the draw and 64% for Ajax. Our tip is: Ajax to win.

Sparta Rotterdam have taken 3 points from their last 1 games (1W 0D 0L). Ajax have taken 6 points from their last 3 games (2W 0D 1L).

On the goals markets, we expect goals, with a 71% chance of over 2.5 and a 65% chance that both teams score.

Competition
Netherlands Eredivisie
Date
Sunday, 25 October 2026, 16:45 WAT
Venue
Sparta Stadium Het Kasteel, Rotterdam

TodaysPrediction analysis team

Model-based football predictions. How our predictions work

Quick answers

When is Sparta Rotterdam vs Ajax?

Sparta Rotterdam vs Ajax kicks off on Sunday, 25 October 2026 at 16:45 West Africa Time.

Which competition is Sparta Rotterdam vs Ajax in?

The match is in the Netherlands Eredivisie.

Where are Sparta Rotterdam and Ajax in the table?

Sparta Rotterdam are 11th and Ajax are 2nd in the Eredivisie.

Who will win Sparta Rotterdam vs Ajax?

Our prediction is Ajax to win. Win probabilities: Sparta Rotterdam 17%, draw 19%, Ajax 64%.

Will both teams score in Sparta Rotterdam vs Ajax?

We estimate a 65% chance that both teams score, so our BTTS tip is Yes.

Will there be over 2.5 goals in Sparta Rotterdam vs Ajax?

We estimate a 71% chance of three or more goals, so our tip is Over 2.5 goals.

Are these predictions guaranteed?

No. They are statistical estimates. A 70% tip should still lose about three times in ten, so only stake what you can afford to lose.

How often are predictions updated?

Predictions refresh automatically through the day as new data arrives, and every tip is marked right or wrong after full time.

More Eredivisie on Sun 25 Oct

FTFortuna Sittard 1-0 Excelsior1X ✓FTPSV Eindhoven 1-1 Feyenoord1X ✓FTNEC Nijmegen 2-2 Groningen1X ✓FTAZ Alkmaar 0-2 Twente1X ✗

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