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Groningen vs Ajax prediction

Groningen vs Ajax prediction for the Eredivisie on 18 Oct 2026: Ajax or draw (74%). Probabilities, betting markets, form, H2H and stats.

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Sunday18October 2026
Yesterday: 52/66 correct(79%)
Eredivisie · Regular Season - 9
GroningenNo recent gamesAjax
2 - 5Full time · Sun 18 OctHT 0-2
Hitachi Capital Mobility Stadion, Groningen

Match events

GroningenAjax
  1. 10'Missed penalty: Davy Klaassen
  2. VAR: Brynjólfur Darri WillumssonPenalty cancelledVAR16'
  3. 27'Goal: Julian Brandt
  4. 37'Goal: Aaron Bouwman
  5. Yellow card: Thom Van BergenFoul40'
  6. 45+2'Yellow card: Dies JanseFoul

HT 0-2

  1. Goal: Brynjólfur Darri Willumsson49'
  2. 56'VARVAR: Davy KlaassenGoal cancelled
  3. 60'Goal: Julian BrandtAssist: Owen Wijndal
  4. Substitution: Jacob OndrejkaOff: Mark Csinger67'
  5. 69'Goal: Jorthy Mokio
  6. 74'Substitution: Julian BrandtOff: Abdellah Ouazane
  7. 74'Substitution: Marcos Leonardo Santos AlmeidaOff: Tolu Arokodare
  8. 75'Goal: Jorthy MokioAssist: Davy Klaassen
  9. 82'Substitution: Oscar GloukhOff: Rayane Bounida
  10. 82'Substitution: Davy KlaassenOff: Yves Bissouma
  11. Substitution: Tika de JongeOff: Nils Eggens83'
  12. Substitution: Brynjólfur Darri WillumssonOff: Tygo Land83'
  13. Substitution: David van der WerffOff: Ryan Metu83'
  14. Substitution: Marco RenteOff: Wouter Prins83'
  15. Goal: Thom Van Bergen83'
  16. 90'Yellow card: Lucas Oliveira·RosaFoul
  17. Missed penalty: Thom Van Bergen90+1'

Our verdict

X2 ✓

Ajax or draw

Bet365 1.28

74%

✓ This tip was correct · final score 2-5

Expected goals3.6

Win probability

1 · Groningen26%
Fair odds 3.85
X · Draw22%
Fair odds 4.55
2 · Ajax52%
Fair odds 1.92

Match statistics

  • 57%Possession43%
  • 2.21Expected goals (xG)2.86
  • 16Total shots15
  • 5Shots on target11
  • 3Shots off target1
  • 8Blocked shots3
  • 8Shots inside the box13
  • 7Corners4
  • 1Offsides4
  • 12Fouls17
  • 1Yellow cards2
  • 0Red cards0
  • 4Goalkeeper saves3
  • 438Passes449
  • 376Accurate passes392

Line-ups

Groningen

4-2-3-1

Starting XI

  1. 1E. VaessenG
  2. 14J. SchreudersD
  3. 3T. BlokzijlD
  4. 5M. RenteD
  5. 33H. HateboerD
  6. 8T. de JongeM
  7. 24P. ClementM
  8. 17D. van der WerffM
  9. 26T. van BergenM
  10. 11J. OndrejkaM
  11. 9B. WillumssonF

Substitutes

  1. 19O. ZawadaF
  2. 30P. BoevinkG
  3. 4M. CsingerD
  4. 44Besnik MashukuM
  5. 20Nils EggensF
  6. 7T. HernesM
  7. 18T. LandM
  8. 34R. MetuF
  9. 42J. MosselaarD
  10. 16A. NordinM
  11. 2Wouter PrinsD
  12. 13L. ŠtubljarG

Coach: D. Lukkien

Ajax

4-3-3

Starting XI

  1. 1M. ter StegenG
  2. 2Lucas RosaD
  3. 30A. BouwmanD
  4. 36D. JanseD
  5. 5O. WijndalD
  6. 18D. KlaassenM
  7. 4S. AmrabatM
  8. 24J. MokioM
  9. 8J. BrandtF
  10. 38Marcos LeonardoF
  11. 10O. GloukhF

Substitutes

  1. 99T. ArokodareF
  2. 15Y. BaasD
  3. 28Y. BissoumaM
  4. 43Rayane BounidaF
  5. 6T. KehrerD
  6. 68A. OuazaneM
  7. 26M. PaesG
  8. 51C. SetfordG
  9. 21Jofre TorrentsD
  10. 11V. TsygankovF
  11. 67Mohamed AbdallaM

Coach: Míchel

Betting markets

Expected goals 1.48 – 2.13
0.5 goalsOver97.3%Under2.7%
1.5 goalsOver87.5%Under12.5%
2.5 goalsOver69.9%Under30.1%
3.5 goalsOver48.7%Under51.3%
4.5 goalsOver29.5%Under70.5%

Market percentages come from our model's expected goals for each side. Fair odds are 100 ÷ probability.

Model comparison

GroningenAjax
50%Form50%
0%Attack100%
91%Defence9%
50%Head to head50%
41%Expected goals59%
33%Overall67%

Last matches

Newest first
Groningen0W 0D 0L · last 0

No finished matches yet.

Ajax0W 0D 1L · last 1
LHNK Hajduk Split vs Ajax15 Oct 2026 · Conference League2-1

Eredivisie table

Eredivisie table
#TeamP+/-Pts
1Feyenoord11+2125
2Ajax11+1724
3PSV Eindhoven11+2223
4Twente11+1823
5AZ Alkmaar11+720
6Fortuna Sittard11019
7Heerenveen11+618
8Groningen11+215
9Cambuur11+115
10GO Ahead Eagles11-414
11Sparta Rotterdam11-612
12Utrecht11-1212
13NEC Nijmegen11-211
14PEC Zwolle11-1111
15Excelsior11-1211
16Telstar11-79
17ADO Den Haag11-116
18Willem II11-292
See full table ›

Top scorers

Eredivisie top scorers
#PlayerMGoals
1S. TengstedtGO Ahead Eagles118
2B. WillumssonGroningen108
3G. TilPSV Eindhoven117
4J. BrandtAjax116
5J. TrenskowHeerenveen116

Season statistics

This season, all competitions we cover
StatGroningenAjax
Played01
Wins00
Draws00
Losses01
Goals for (avg)01
Goals against (avg)02
Clean sheets00
Failed to score00
Best win streak00

Recent goal lines

How many of each team's last 1 games went over the line

Over 1.50/01/1
Over 2.50/01/1
Over 3.50/00/1
BTTS – yes0/01/1

Match preview

Groningen host Ajax in the Eredivisie (Regular Season - 9) at Hitachi Capital Mobility Stadion, Groningen, with kick-off on Sunday, 18 October 2026 at 15:45 WAT.

Our prediction model makes Ajax favourites, giving Groningen a 26% chance of winning, 22% for the draw and 52% for Ajax. Our tip is: Ajax or draw.

Ajax have taken 0 points from their last 1 games (0W 0D 1L).

On the goals markets, we expect goals, with a 70% chance of over 2.5 and a 69% chance that both teams score.

Competition
Netherlands Eredivisie
Date
Sunday, 18 October 2026, 15:45 WAT
Venue
Hitachi Capital Mobility Stadion, Groningen

TodaysPrediction analysis team

Model-based football predictions. How our predictions work

Quick answers

When is Groningen vs Ajax?

Groningen vs Ajax kicks off on Sunday, 18 October 2026 at 15:45 West Africa Time.

Which competition is Groningen vs Ajax in?

The match is in the Netherlands Eredivisie.

Where are Groningen and Ajax in the table?

Groningen are 8th and Ajax are 2nd in the Eredivisie.

Who will win Groningen vs Ajax?

Our prediction is Ajax or draw. Win probabilities: Groningen 26%, draw 22%, Ajax 52%.

Will both teams score in Groningen vs Ajax?

We estimate a 69% chance that both teams score, so our BTTS tip is Yes.

Will there be over 2.5 goals in Groningen vs Ajax?

We estimate a 70% chance of three or more goals, so our tip is Over 2.5 goals.

Are these predictions guaranteed?

No. They are statistical estimates. A 70% tip should still lose about three times in ten, so only stake what you can afford to lose.

How often are predictions updated?

Predictions refresh automatically through the day as new data arrives, and every tip is marked right or wrong after full time.

More Eredivisie on Sun 18 Oct

FTPEC Zwolle 4-1 GO Ahead EaglesX2 ✗FTCambuur 2-2 AZ Alkmaar2 ✗FTNEC Nijmegen 2-2 Fortuna Sittard12 ✗FTTwente 1-2 Utrecht1 ✗

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