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VfB Stuttgart vs Atletico Madrid prediction

VfB Stuttgart vs Atletico Madrid prediction for the Champions League on 20 Oct 2026: Atletico Madrid or draw (71%). Probabilities, betting markets, form, H2H and stats.

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Tuesday20October 2026
Yesterday: 78/96 correct(81%)
Champions League · League Stage - 3
VfB StuttgartAtletico Madrid
1 - 1Full time · Tue 20 OctHT 1-0
MHP Arena, Stuttgart

Match events

VfB StuttgartAtletico Madrid
  1. Yellow card: Maximilian MittelstädtFoul17'
  2. Goal: Jamie Leweling36'
  3. 45'Substitution: Jonathan DavidOff: Ademola Lookman

HT 1-0

  1. 47'Goal: Julián ÁlvarezAssist: Ademola Lookman
  2. Substitution: Josha VagnomanOff: Lorenz Assignon52'
  3. 64'Red card: Morten HjulmandSerious Foul
  4. 69'Substitution: Alejandro Baena RodríguezOff: Johnny Cardoso
  5. Substitution: Jamie LewelingOff: Ermedin Demirović72'
  6. 78'Substitution: Pablo Barrios RivasOff: Robin Le Normand
  7. 78'Substitution: Julián ÁlvarezOff: Obed Vargas
  8. 85'Yellow card: Diego Pablo SimeoneDissent
  9. 87'Substitution: Giuliano Simeone BaldiniOff: Alexander Sørloth
  10. Substitution: Deniz UndavOff: Dženan Pejčinović87'
  11. Substitution: Chris FührichOff: Leo Sauer87'

Our verdict

X2 ✓

Atletico Madrid or draw

Bet365 1.28

71%

✓ This tip was correct · final score 1-1

Expected goals3.1

Win probability

1 · VfB Stuttgart29%
Fair odds 3.45
X · Draw25%
Fair odds 4.00
2 · Atletico Madrid46%
Fair odds 2.17

Match statistics

  • 54%Possession46%
  • 1.35Expected goals (xG)0.90
  • 17Total shots10
  • 5Shots on target3
  • 8Shots off target4
  • 4Blocked shots3
  • 11Shots inside the box9
  • 9Corners4
  • 2Offsides0
  • 15Fouls7
  • 1Yellow cards0
  • 0Red cards1
  • 2Goalkeeper saves4
  • 505Passes457
  • 450Accurate passes379

Line-ups

VfB Stuttgart

4-2-3-1

Starting XI

  1. 41D. SeimenG
  2. 4J. VagnomanD
  3. 3R. HendriksD
  4. 24J. ChabotD
  5. 7M. MittelstädtD
  6. 21G. PrömelM
  7. 6A. StillerM
  8. 18J. LewelingM
  9. 11B. El KhannoussM
  10. 10C. FührichM
  11. 26D. UndavF

Substitutes

  1. 2A. Al DakhilD
  2. 44L. SauerF
  3. 17D. PejčinovićF
  4. 28N. NarteyM
  5. 16A. KarazorM
  6. 29Finn JeltschD
  7. 22L. AssignonD
  8. 1F. BredlowG
  9. 9E. DemirovićF
  10. 33M. FunkG
  11. 14L. JaquezD

Coach: S. Hoeneb

Atletico Madrid

4-4-2

Starting XI

  1. 13J. OblakG
  2. 14Marcos LlorenteD
  3. 18Marc PubillD
  4. 17D. HanckoD
  5. 22Álex GrimaldoD
  6. 20G. SimeoneM
  7. 8Pablo BarriosM
  8. 23M. HjulmandM
  9. 10Álex BaenaM
  10. 15J. DavidF
  11. 19J. ÁlvarezF

Substitutes

  1. 9A. SørlothF
  2. 16Arnau OrtizF
  3. 1J. MussoG
  4. 4Rodrigo MendozaM
  5. 11A. LookmanF
  6. 24Robin Le NormandD
  7. 7Lee Kang-InM
  8. 27J. DominguezD
  9. 46J. CastilloM
  10. 5J. CardosoM
  11. 3O. VargasM
  12. 30Dani MartínezD

Coach: D. Simeone

Betting markets

Expected goals 1.36 – 1.75
0.5 goalsOver95.5%Under4.5%
1.5 goalsOver81.7%Under18.3%
2.5 goalsOver60.1%Under39.9%
3.5 goalsOver37.7%Under62.3%
4.5 goalsOver20.4%Under79.6%

Market percentages come from our model's expected goals for each side. Fair odds are 100 ÷ probability.

Model comparison

VfB StuttgartAtletico Madrid
33%Form67%
50%Attack50%
29%Defence71%
50%Head to head50%
44%Expected goals56%
39%Overall61%

Last matches

Newest first
VfB Stuttgart1W 0D 1L · last 2
LHamburger SV vs VfB Stuttgart17 Oct 2026 · Bundesliga1-0WSlovan Bratislava vs VfB Stuttgart14 Oct 2026 · Champions League0-3
Atletico Madrid2W 0D 0L · last 2
WEspanyol vs Atletico Madrid17 Oct 2026 · La Liga0-1WAtletico Madrid vs Manchester United13 Oct 2026 · Champions League2-0

Champions League table

Champions League table
#TeamP+/-Pts
1Paris Saint Germain3+99
2Aston Villa3+99
3Liverpool3+59
4Real Madrid3+59
5Real Betis3+39
6VfB Stuttgart3+57
7Arsenal3+47
8Barcelona3+56
9Como3+56
10Manchester City3+46
11Club Brugge KV3+36
12Sporting CP3+36
13Borussia Dortmund3+16
14Bayern München3+55
15AS Roma3+34
16Atletico Madrid3+14
17Shakhtar Donetsk3+14
18PSV Eindhoven304
19Villarreal303
20Inter3-13
21Manchester United3-13
22Napoli3-23
23Galatasaray3-33
24Lask Linz3-33
25Sabah FA3-33
26Feyenoord3-43
27Lens3-43
28Bodo/Glimt3-53
29AEK Athens FC3-53
30RB Leipzig3-53
31Fenerbahçe3-62
32Slavia Praha3-31
33Viking3-41
34FC Porto3-40
35Lille3-60
36Slovan Bratislava3-120
See full table ›

Top scorers

Champions League top scorers
#PlayerMGoals
1J. MickelsSabah FA114
2E. DemirovićVfB Stuttgart34
3E. HaalandManchester City24
4S. GuirassyBorussia Dortmund34
5H. KaneBayern München34

Season statistics

This season, all competitions we cover
StatVfB StuttgartAtletico Madrid
Played22
Wins12
Draws00
Losses10
Goals for (avg)1.51.5
Goals against (avg)0.50
Clean sheets12
Failed to score10
Best win streak12

Recent goal lines

How many of each team's last 2 games went over the line

Over 1.51/21/2
Over 2.51/20/2
Over 3.50/20/2
BTTS – yes0/20/2

Match preview

VfB Stuttgart host Atletico Madrid in the Champions League (League Stage - 3) at MHP Arena, Stuttgart, with kick-off on Tuesday, 20 October 2026 at 20:00 WAT.

Our prediction model makes Atletico Madrid slight favourites, giving VfB Stuttgart a 29% chance of winning, 25% for the draw and 46% for Atletico Madrid. Our tip is: Atletico Madrid or draw.

VfB Stuttgart have taken 3 points from their last 2 games (1W 0D 1L). Atletico Madrid have taken 6 points from their last 2 games (2W 0D 0L).

On the goals markets, we expect goals, with a 60% chance of over 2.5 and a 62% chance that both teams score.

Competition
Europe Champions League
Date
Tuesday, 20 October 2026, 20:00 WAT
Venue
MHP Arena, Stuttgart

TodaysPrediction analysis team

Model-based football predictions. How our predictions work

Quick answers

When is VfB Stuttgart vs Atletico Madrid?

VfB Stuttgart vs Atletico Madrid kicks off on Tuesday, 20 October 2026 at 20:00 West Africa Time.

Which competition is VfB Stuttgart vs Atletico Madrid in?

The match is in the Europe Champions League.

Where are VfB Stuttgart and Atletico Madrid in the table?

VfB Stuttgart are 6th and Atletico Madrid are 16th in the Champions League.

Who will win VfB Stuttgart vs Atletico Madrid?

Our prediction is Atletico Madrid or draw. Win probabilities: VfB Stuttgart 29%, draw 25%, Atletico Madrid 46%.

Will both teams score in VfB Stuttgart vs Atletico Madrid?

We estimate a 62% chance that both teams score, so our BTTS tip is Yes.

Will there be over 2.5 goals in VfB Stuttgart vs Atletico Madrid?

We estimate a 60% chance of three or more goals, so our tip is Over 2.5 goals.

Are these predictions guaranteed?

No. They are statistical estimates. A 70% tip should still lose about three times in ten, so only stake what you can afford to lose.

How often are predictions updated?

Predictions refresh automatically through the day as new data arrives, and every tip is marked right or wrong after full time.

More Champions League on Tue 20 Oct

FTSabah FA 1-2 Borussia Dortmund2 ✓FTFenerbahçe 2-2 Slavia PrahaOver 1.5 ✓FTNapoli 4-3 Bodo/Glimt1 ✓FTParis Saint Germain 4-2 Barcelona12 ✓FTFC Porto 0-1 PSV Eindhoven1 ✗FTAS Roma 4-0 Slovan BratislavaOver 2.5 ✓FTManchester City 5-1 AEK Athens FCOver 2.5 ✓FTLiverpool 4-3 Villarreal1 ✓

All football predictions for today