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Paris Saint Germain vs Barcelona prediction

Paris Saint Germain vs Barcelona prediction for the Champions League on 20 Oct 2026: Paris Saint Germain or Barcelona (80%). Probabilities, betting markets, form, H2H and stats.

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Tuesday20October 2026
Yesterday: 52/66 correct(79%)
Champions League · League Stage - 3
Paris Saint GermainBarcelona
4 - 2Full time · Tue 20 OctHT 1-0
Parc des Princes, Paris

Match events

Paris Saint GermainBarcelona
  1. 17'Yellow card: João CanceloFoul
  2. Substitution: Ousmane DembéléOff: Ferrán Torres20'
  3. 27'Substitution: Daniel Olmo CarvajalOff: Fermín López
  4. Goal: Désiré DoueAssist: João Neves38'

HT 1-0

  1. 55'Goal: Xavi EspartAssist: Fermín López
  2. Substitution: Marcos Aoás CorrêaOff: Ilya Zabarnyi59'
  3. Substitution: Khvicha KvaratskheliaOff: Maghnes Akliouche59'
  4. 60'Substitution: Raphael Dias BelloliOff: Karim Adeyemi
  5. 60'Substitution: Pablo Martín Páez GaviraOff: Pedri
  6. 60'Substitution: Rodrigo Hernandez CascanteOff: Marc Bernal
  7. Goal: Lucas HernándezAssist: Désiré Doue72'
  8. 74'Substitution: Xavi EspartOff: Alejandro Balde
  9. Substitution: Lucas HernándezOff: Warren Zaire-Emery78'
  10. Substitution: Désiré DoueOff: Senny Mayulu78'
  11. 79'Goal: Lamine Yamal
  12. Goal: Vitinha81'
  13. Goal: Fabián RuizAssist: Achraf Hakimi86'

Our verdict

12 ✓

Paris Saint Germain or Barcelona

Bet365 1.22

80%

✓ This tip was correct · final score 4-2

Expected goals4.2

Win probability

1 · Paris Saint Germain42%
Fair odds 2.38
X · Draw20%
Fair odds 5.00
2 · Barcelona38%
Fair odds 2.63

Match statistics

  • 47%Possession53%
  • 3.82Expected goals (xG)2.22
  • 22Total shots18
  • 15Shots on target5
  • 3Shots off target8
  • 4Blocked shots5
  • 13Shots inside the box12
  • 2Corners3
  • 2Offsides1
  • 11Fouls10
  • 0Yellow cards1
  • 0Red cards0
  • 3Goalkeeper saves10
  • 481Passes537
  • 409Accurate passes471

Line-ups

Paris Saint Germain

4-3-3

Starting XI

  1. 39M. SafonovG
  2. 2A. HakimiD
  3. 5MarquinhosD
  4. 51W. PachoD
  5. 21L. HernándezD
  6. 87João NevesM
  7. 17VitinhaM
  8. 8Fabián RuizM
  9. 14D. DouéF
  10. 10O. DembéléF
  11. 7K. KvaratskheliaF

Substitutes

  1. 11M. AklioucheM
  2. 30L. ChevalierG
  3. 12L. DigneD
  4. 4BeraldoD
  5. 27Pedro FernándezM
  6. 22M. GodtsF
  7. 24Senny MayuluM
  8. 80Adam MouakG
  9. 47Quentin Ndjantou MbitchaF
  10. 9Ferran TorresF
  11. 6I. ZabarnyiD
  12. 33W. Zaïre-EmeryM

Coach: Luis Enrique

Barcelona

4-2-3-1

Starting XI

  1. 1Joan GarcíaG
  2. 12X. EspartD
  3. 5Pau Cubarsí ParedesD
  4. 18Gerard MartínD
  5. 2João CanceloD
  6. 22Marc BernalM
  7. 8PedriM
  8. 10Lamine YamalM
  9. 20Dani OlmoM
  10. 17A. GordonM
  11. 11RaphinhaF

Substitutes

  1. 3Alejandro BaldeD
  2. 41A. CamposD
  3. 21F. de JongM
  4. 4B. FarinasM
  5. 7FermínM
  6. 9Gabriel JesusF
  7. 6GaviM
  8. 25D. LivakovićG
  9. 16RodriM
  10. 13W. SzczęsnyG
  11. 29H. AbdelkarimF
  12. 14K. AdeyemiF

Coach: H. Flick

Betting markets

Expected goals 2.16 – 2.05
0.5 goalsOver98.5%Under1.5%
1.5 goalsOver92.3%Under7.7%
2.5 goalsOver79.1%Under20.9%
3.5 goalsOver60.6%Under39.4%
4.5 goalsOver41.2%Under58.8%

Market percentages come from our model's expected goals for each side. Fair odds are 100 ÷ probability.

Model comparison

Paris Saint GermainBarcelona
50%Form50%
44%Attack56%
50%Defence50%
50%Head to head50%
51%Expected goals49%
53%Overall47%

Last matches

Newest first
Paris Saint Germain2W 0D 0L · last 2
WStrasbourg vs Paris Saint Germain17 Oct 2026 · Ligue 11-3WManchester City vs Paris Saint Germain14 Oct 2026 · Champions League2-4
Barcelona2W 0D 0L · last 2
WReal Betis vs Barcelona17 Oct 2026 · La Liga2-5WGalatasaray vs Barcelona13 Oct 2026 · Champions League1-4

Champions League table

Champions League table
#TeamP+/-Pts
1Paris Saint Germain3+99
2Aston Villa3+99
3Liverpool3+59
4Real Madrid3+59
5Real Betis3+39
6VfB Stuttgart3+57
7Arsenal3+47
8Barcelona3+56
9Como3+56
10Manchester City3+46
11Club Brugge KV3+36
12Sporting CP3+36
13Borussia Dortmund3+16
14Bayern München3+55
15AS Roma3+34
16Atletico Madrid3+14
17Shakhtar Donetsk3+14
18PSV Eindhoven304
19Villarreal303
20Inter3-13
21Manchester United3-13
22Napoli3-23
23Galatasaray3-33
24Lask Linz3-33
25Sabah FA3-33
26Feyenoord3-43
27Lens3-43
28Bodo/Glimt3-53
29AEK Athens FC3-53
30RB Leipzig3-53
31Fenerbahçe3-62
32Slavia Praha3-31
33Viking3-41
34FC Porto3-40
35Lille3-60
36Slovan Bratislava3-120
See full table ›

Top scorers

Champions League top scorers
#PlayerMGoals
1J. MickelsSabah FA114
2E. DemirovićVfB Stuttgart34
3E. HaalandManchester City24
4S. GuirassyBorussia Dortmund34
5H. KaneBayern München34

Season statistics

This season, all competitions we cover
StatParis Saint GermainBarcelona
Played22
Wins22
Draws00
Losses00
Goals for (avg)3.54.5
Goals against (avg)1.51.5
Clean sheets00
Failed to score00
Best win streak22

Recent goal lines

How many of each team's last 2 games went over the line

Over 1.52/22/2
Over 2.52/22/2
Over 3.52/22/2
BTTS – yes2/22/2

Match preview

Paris Saint Germain host Barcelona in the Champions League (League Stage - 3) at Parc des Princes, Paris, with kick-off on Tuesday, 20 October 2026 at 20:00 WAT.

Our prediction model makes Paris Saint Germain slight favourites, giving Paris Saint Germain a 42% chance of winning, 20% for the draw and 38% for Barcelona. Our tip is: Paris Saint Germain or Barcelona.

Paris Saint Germain have taken 6 points from their last 2 games (2W 0D 0L). Barcelona have taken 6 points from their last 2 games (2W 0D 0L).

On the goals markets, we expect goals, with a 79% chance of over 2.5 and a 77% chance that both teams score.

Competition
Europe Champions League
Date
Tuesday, 20 October 2026, 20:00 WAT
Venue
Parc des Princes, Paris

TodaysPrediction analysis team

Model-based football predictions. How our predictions work

Quick answers

When is Paris Saint Germain vs Barcelona?

Paris Saint Germain vs Barcelona kicks off on Tuesday, 20 October 2026 at 20:00 West Africa Time.

Which competition is Paris Saint Germain vs Barcelona in?

The match is in the Europe Champions League.

Where are Paris Saint Germain and Barcelona in the table?

Paris Saint Germain are 1st and Barcelona are 8th in the Champions League.

Who will win Paris Saint Germain vs Barcelona?

Our prediction is Paris Saint Germain or Barcelona. Win probabilities: Paris Saint Germain 42%, draw 20%, Barcelona 38%.

Will both teams score in Paris Saint Germain vs Barcelona?

We estimate a 77% chance that both teams score, so our BTTS tip is Yes.

Will there be over 2.5 goals in Paris Saint Germain vs Barcelona?

We estimate a 79% chance of three or more goals, so our tip is Over 2.5 goals.

Are these predictions guaranteed?

No. They are statistical estimates. A 70% tip should still lose about three times in ten, so only stake what you can afford to lose.

How often are predictions updated?

Predictions refresh automatically through the day as new data arrives, and every tip is marked right or wrong after full time.

More Champions League on Tue 20 Oct

FTSabah FA 1-2 Borussia Dortmund2 ✓FTFenerbahçe 2-2 Slavia PrahaOver 1.5 ✓FTNapoli 4-3 Bodo/Glimt1 ✓FTFC Porto 0-1 PSV Eindhoven1 ✗FTVfB Stuttgart 1-1 Atletico MadridX2 ✓FTAS Roma 4-0 Slovan BratislavaOver 2.5 ✓FTManchester City 5-1 AEK Athens FCOver 2.5 ✓FTLiverpool 4-3 Villarreal1 ✓

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