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Liverpool vs Villarreal prediction

Liverpool vs Villarreal prediction for the Champions League on 20 Oct 2026: Liverpool to win (65%). Probabilities, betting markets, form, H2H and stats.

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Tuesday20October 2026
Yesterday: 52/66 correct(79%)
Champions League · League Stage - 3
LiverpoolVillarreal
4 - 3Full time · Tue 20 OctHT 2-2
Anfield, Liverpool

Match events

LiverpoolVillarreal
  1. 4'Goal: Georges Mikautadze
  2. 27'Yellow card: Alberto MoleiroFoul
  3. 29'Goal: Sergi Cardona BermúdezAssist: Nathan-Dylan Saliba
  4. Goal: Alexis Mac AllisterAssist: Konstantinos Tsimikas36'
  5. 41'Yellow card: Álvaro Santiago Mouriño GonzálezFoul
  6. 45'Substitution: Nathan-Dylan SalibaOff: Tani Oluwaseyi
  7. Substitution: Ronald AraujoOff: Florian Wirtz45'
  8. Goal: Ronald AraujoAssist: Rio Ngumoha45+2'

HT 2-2

  1. 54'Substitution: Juan FoythOff: Alberto Moleiro
  2. 60'Substitution: Georges MikautadzeOff: Ayoze Pérez
  3. 60'Substitution: Tajon BuchananOff: Alex Freeman
  4. Goal: Alexis Mac AllisterAssist: Rio Ngumoha65'
  5. Substitution: Lewis KoumasOff: Alexander Isak66'
  6. Goal: Florian WirtzAssist: Cody Gakpo68'
  7. Substitution: Rio NgumohaOff: Bradley Barcola74'
  8. Substitution: Jérémy JacquetOff: Joe Gomez74'
  9. 78'Substitution: Gerard MorenoOff: Santi Comesaña
  10. Substitution: Treymaurice NyoniOff: James McConnell81'
  11. 87'Goal: Tani OluwaseyiAssist: Ayoze Pérez

Our verdict

1 ✓

Liverpool to win

Bet365 1.50

65%

✓ This tip was correct · final score 4-3

Expected goals3.3

Win probability

1 · Liverpool65%
Fair odds 1.54
X · Draw19%
Fair odds 5.26
2 · Villarreal16%
Fair odds 6.25

Match statistics

  • 53%Possession47%
  • 2.41Expected goals (xG)1.54
  • 22Total shots14
  • 7Shots on target5
  • 8Shots off target2
  • 7Blocked shots7
  • 14Shots inside the box9
  • 7Corners2
  • 2Offsides4
  • 12Fouls10
  • 0Yellow cards2
  • 0Red cards0
  • 2Goalkeeper saves4
  • 539Passes498
  • 463Accurate passes415

Line-ups

Liverpool

4-2-3-1

Starting XI

  1. 1Alisson BeckerG
  2. 33R. AraújoD
  3. 5J. JacquetD
  4. 4V. van DijkD
  5. 21K. TsimikasD
  6. 10A. Mac AllisterM
  7. 42T. NyoniM
  8. 73R. NgumohaM
  9. 38R. GravenberchM
  10. 18C. GakpoM
  11. 67L. KoumasF

Substitutes

  1. 29B. BarcolaF
  2. 44L. ChambersD
  3. 76J. DannsF
  4. 2J. GomezD
  5. 9A. IsakF
  6. 6M. KerkezD
  7. 25G. MamardashviliG
  8. 53J. McConnellM
  9. 7F. WirtzM
  10. 28F. WoodmanG
  11. 94M. LaffeyM

Coach: Andoni Iraola

Villarreal

4-2-3-1

Starting XI

  1. 25P. GulácsiG
  2. 15S. MouriñoD
  3. 6Pau NavarroD
  4. 12Renato VeigaD
  5. 23Sergi CardonaD
  6. 24N. SalibaM
  7. 18P. GueyeM
  8. 17T. BuchananM
  9. 14Santi ComesañaM
  10. 10Alberto MoleiroM
  11. 9G. MikautadzeF

Substitutes

  1. 22Ayoze PérezF
  2. 5A. DiattaM
  3. 27N. El JmiliF
  4. 8J. FoythD
  5. 3A. FreemanD
  6. 1Luíz JúniorG
  7. 16C. MaciaM
  8. 7Gerard MorenoF
  9. 21T. OluwaseyiF
  10. 2Logan CostaD
  11. 11Ilias AkhomachF
  12. 28Joselillo GaitánF

Coach: Iñigo Pérez

Betting markets

Expected goals 2.29 – 1.05
0.5 goalsOver96.5%Under3.5%
1.5 goalsOver84.6%Under15.4%
2.5 goalsOver64.9%Under35.1%
3.5 goalsOver42.8%Under57.2%
4.5 goalsOver24.5%Under75.5%

Market percentages come from our model's expected goals for each side. Fair odds are 100 ÷ probability.

Model comparison

LiverpoolVillarreal
60%Form40%
73%Attack27%
20%Defence80%
50%Head to head50%
69%Expected goals31%
80%Overall20%

Last matches

Newest first
Liverpool2W 0D 0L · last 2
WBrentford vs Liverpool17 Oct 2026 · Premier League1-2WLask Linz vs Liverpool14 Oct 2026 · Champions League3-6
Villarreal1W 1D 0L · last 2
DVillarreal vs Elche17 Oct 2026 · La Liga0-0WVillarreal vs Napoli13 Oct 2026 · Champions League3-1

Champions League table

Champions League table
#TeamP+/-Pts
1Paris Saint Germain3+99
2Aston Villa3+99
3Liverpool3+59
4Real Madrid3+59
5Real Betis3+39
6VfB Stuttgart3+57
7Arsenal3+47
8Barcelona3+56
9Como3+56
10Manchester City3+46
11Club Brugge KV3+36
12Sporting CP3+36
13Borussia Dortmund3+16
14Bayern München3+55
15AS Roma3+34
16Atletico Madrid3+14
17Shakhtar Donetsk3+14
18PSV Eindhoven304
19Villarreal303
20Inter3-13
21Manchester United3-13
22Napoli3-23
23Galatasaray3-33
24Lask Linz3-33
25Sabah FA3-33
26Feyenoord3-43
27Lens3-43
28Bodo/Glimt3-53
29AEK Athens FC3-53
30RB Leipzig3-53
31Fenerbahçe3-62
32Slavia Praha3-31
33Viking3-41
34FC Porto3-40
35Lille3-60
36Slovan Bratislava3-120
See full table ›

Top scorers

Champions League top scorers
#PlayerMGoals
1J. MickelsSabah FA114
2E. DemirovićVfB Stuttgart34
3E. HaalandManchester City24
4S. GuirassyBorussia Dortmund34
5H. KaneBayern München34

Season statistics

This season, all competitions we cover
StatLiverpoolVillarreal
Played22
Wins21
Draws01
Losses00
Goals for (avg)41.5
Goals against (avg)20.5
Clean sheets01
Failed to score01
Best win streak21

Recent goal lines

How many of each team's last 2 games went over the line

Over 1.52/21/2
Over 2.52/21/2
Over 3.51/21/2
BTTS – yes2/21/2

Match preview

Liverpool host Villarreal in the Champions League (League Stage - 3) at Anfield, Liverpool, with kick-off on Tuesday, 20 October 2026 at 20:00 WAT.

Our prediction model makes Liverpool clear favourites, giving Liverpool a 65% chance of winning, 19% for the draw and 16% for Villarreal. Our tip is: Liverpool to win.

Liverpool have taken 6 points from their last 2 games (2W 0D 0L). Villarreal have taken 4 points from their last 2 games (1W 1D 0L).

On the goals markets, we expect goals, with a 65% chance of over 2.5 and a 59% chance that both teams score.

Competition
Europe Champions League
Date
Tuesday, 20 October 2026, 20:00 WAT
Venue
Anfield, Liverpool

TodaysPrediction analysis team

Model-based football predictions. How our predictions work

Quick answers

When is Liverpool vs Villarreal?

Liverpool vs Villarreal kicks off on Tuesday, 20 October 2026 at 20:00 West Africa Time.

Which competition is Liverpool vs Villarreal in?

The match is in the Europe Champions League.

Where are Liverpool and Villarreal in the table?

Liverpool are 3rd and Villarreal are 19th in the Champions League.

Who will win Liverpool vs Villarreal?

Our prediction is Liverpool to win. Win probabilities: Liverpool 65%, draw 19%, Villarreal 16%.

Will both teams score in Liverpool vs Villarreal?

We estimate a 59% chance that both teams score, so our BTTS tip is Yes.

Will there be over 2.5 goals in Liverpool vs Villarreal?

We estimate a 65% chance of three or more goals, so our tip is Over 2.5 goals.

Are these predictions guaranteed?

No. They are statistical estimates. A 70% tip should still lose about three times in ten, so only stake what you can afford to lose.

How often are predictions updated?

Predictions refresh automatically through the day as new data arrives, and every tip is marked right or wrong after full time.

More Champions League on Tue 20 Oct

FTSabah FA 1-2 Borussia Dortmund2 ✓FTFenerbahçe 2-2 Slavia PrahaOver 1.5 ✓FTNapoli 4-3 Bodo/Glimt1 ✓FTParis Saint Germain 4-2 Barcelona12 ✓FTFC Porto 0-1 PSV Eindhoven1 ✗FTVfB Stuttgart 1-1 Atletico MadridX2 ✓FTAS Roma 4-0 Slovan BratislavaOver 2.5 ✓FTManchester City 5-1 AEK Athens FCOver 2.5 ✓

All football predictions for today