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Atletico Madrid vs Manchester United prediction

Atletico Madrid vs Manchester United prediction for the Champions League on 13 Oct 2026: Over 1.5 (80%). Probabilities, betting markets, form, H2H and stats.

Premier LeagueChampions LeagueLa LigaSerie ABundesligaAnd more

Tuesday13October 2026
Yesterday: 52/66 correct(79%)
Champions League · League Stage - 2
Atletico MadridNo recent gamesManchester UnitedNo recent games
2 - 0Full time · Tue 13 OctHT 1-0
Riyadh Air Metropolitano, Madrid

Match events

Atletico MadridManchester United
  1. Goal: P. BarriosAssist: A. Baena1'
  2. VAR: Johnny CardosoGoal cancelledVAR45'

HT 1-0

  1. 52'Yellow card: Marcus RashfordFoul
  2. Substitution: M. PubillOff: P. Barrios60'
  3. Substitution: J. DavidOff: Lee Kang-In61'
  4. 66'Substitution: M. MountOff: C. Baleba
  5. 66'Substitution: J. ZirkzeeOff: Y. Tielemans
  6. 66'Substitution: A. DialloOff: M. Rashford
  7. Substitution: M. HjulmandOff: J. Alvarez71'
  8. Substitution: A. LookmanOff: A. Baena71'
  9. 72'VARVAR: Leny YoroCard upgrade
  10. 74'Red card: Leny YoroProfessional foul last man
  11. Goal: A. Lookman79'
  12. 80'Substitution: H. MaguireOff: A. Heaven
  13. 80'Substitution: M. CunhaOff: B. Fernandes
  14. Yellow card: Robin Le NormandFoul88'
  15. Substitution: R. Le NormandOff: G. Simeone88'

Our verdict

Over 1.5 ✓

Over 1.5

Bet365 1.20

80%

✓ This tip was correct · final score 2-0

Expected goals3.0

Win probability

1 · Atletico Madrid53%
Fair odds 1.89
X · Draw24%
Fair odds 4.17
2 · Manchester United23%
Fair odds 4.35

Match statistics

  • 58%Possession42%
  • 1.47Expected goals (xG)0.98
  • 11Total shots9
  • 5Shots on target4
  • 5Shots off target3
  • 1Blocked shots2
  • 6Shots inside the box6
  • 2Corners5
  • 1Offsides2
  • 11Fouls13
  • 1Yellow cards1
  • 0Red cards1
  • 4Goalkeeper saves3
  • 651Passes463
  • 577Accurate passes396
  • 89%Pass accuracy86%

Line-ups

Atletico Madrid

4-4-2

Starting XI

  1. 13J. OblakG
  2. 14M. LlorenteD
  3. 21C. RomeroD
  4. 17D. HanckoD
  5. 22A. GrimaldoD
  6. 20G. SimeoneM
  7. 8P. BarriosM
  8. 5J. CardosoM
  9. 10A. BaenaM
  10. 7Lee Kang-InF
  11. 19J. AlvarezF

Substitutes

  1. 1J. MussoG
  2. 24R. Le NormandD
  3. 18M. PubillD
  4. 30D. MartinezD
  5. 27J. DominguezD
  6. 23M. HjulmandM
  7. 4R. MendozaM
  8. 46J. CastilloM
  9. 9A. SorlothF
  10. 11A. LookmanF
  11. 15J. DavidF
  12. 16A. OrtizF

Coach: Diego Simeone

Manchester United

4-2-3-1

Starting XI

  1. 1S. LammensG
  2. 2D. DalotD
  3. 15L. YoroD
  4. 6L. MartinezD
  5. 26A. HeavenD
  6. 17Andrey SantosM
  7. 20C. BalebaM
  8. 8B. FernandesM
  9. 18Y. TielemansM
  10. 9M. RashfordM
  11. 19B. MbeumoF

Substitutes

  1. 12K. DarlowG
  2. 45D. MeeG
  3. 5H. MaguireD
  4. 4M. de LigtD
  5. 41H. AmassD
  6. 57D. ArmerD
  7. 7M. MountM
  8. 39T. FletcherM
  9. 11J. ZirkzeeF
  10. 10M. CunhaF
  11. 16A. DialloF
  12. 31S. LaceyF

Coach: Michael Carrick

Betting markets

Expected goals 1.82 – 1.14
0.5 goalsOver94.8%Under5.2%
1.5 goalsOver79.5%Under20.5%
2.5 goalsOver56.8%Under43.2%
3.5 goalsOver34.4%Under65.6%
4.5 goalsOver17.8%Under82.2%

Market percentages come from our model's expected goals for each side. Fair odds are 100 ÷ probability.

Model comparison

Atletico MadridManchester United
50%Form50%
50%Attack50%
50%Defence50%
50%Head to head50%
61%Expected goals39%
70%Overall30%

Last matches

Newest first
Atletico Madrid0W 0D 0L · last 0

No finished matches yet.

Manchester United0W 0D 0L · last 0

No finished matches yet.

Champions League table

Champions League table
#TeamP+/-Pts
1Paris Saint Germain3+99
2Aston Villa3+99
3Liverpool3+59
4Real Madrid3+59
5Real Betis3+39
6VfB Stuttgart3+57
7Arsenal3+47
8Barcelona3+56
9Como3+56
10Manchester City3+46
11Club Brugge KV3+36
12Sporting CP3+36
13Borussia Dortmund3+16
14Bayern München3+55
15AS Roma3+34
16Atletico Madrid3+14
17Shakhtar Donetsk3+14
18PSV Eindhoven304
19Villarreal303
20Inter3-13
21Manchester United3-13
22Napoli3-23
23Galatasaray3-33
24Lask Linz3-33
25Sabah FA3-33
26Feyenoord3-43
27Lens3-43
28Bodo/Glimt3-53
29AEK Athens FC3-53
30RB Leipzig3-53
31Fenerbahçe3-62
32Slavia Praha3-31
33Viking3-41
34FC Porto3-40
35Lille3-60
36Slovan Bratislava3-120
See full table ›

Top scorers

Champions League top scorers
#PlayerMGoals
1J. MickelsSabah FA114
2E. DemirovićVfB Stuttgart34
3E. HaalandManchester City24
4S. GuirassyBorussia Dortmund34
5H. KaneBayern München34

Season statistics

This season, all competitions we cover
StatAtletico MadridManchester United
Played00
Wins00
Draws00
Losses00
Goals for (avg)00
Goals against (avg)00
Clean sheets00
Failed to score00
Best win streak00

Match preview

Atletico Madrid host Manchester United in the Champions League (League Stage - 2) at Riyadh Air Metropolitano, Madrid, with kick-off on Tuesday, 13 October 2026 at 20:00 WAT.

Our prediction model makes Atletico Madrid favourites, giving Atletico Madrid a 53% chance of winning, 24% for the draw and 23% for Manchester United. Our tip is: Over 1.5.

On the goals markets, we expect goals, with a 57% chance of over 2.5 and a 58% chance that both teams score.

Competition
Europe Champions League
Date
Tuesday, 13 October 2026, 20:00 WAT
Venue
Riyadh Air Metropolitano, Madrid

TodaysPrediction analysis team

Model-based football predictions. How our predictions work

Quick answers

When is Atletico Madrid vs Manchester United?

Atletico Madrid vs Manchester United kicks off on Tuesday, 13 October 2026 at 20:00 West Africa Time.

Which competition is Atletico Madrid vs Manchester United in?

The match is in the Europe Champions League.

Where are Atletico Madrid and Manchester United in the table?

Atletico Madrid are 16th and Manchester United are 21st in the Champions League.

Who will win Atletico Madrid vs Manchester United?

Our prediction is Over 1.5. Win probabilities: Atletico Madrid 53%, draw 24%, Manchester United 23%.

Will both teams score in Atletico Madrid vs Manchester United?

We estimate a 58% chance that both teams score, so our BTTS tip is Yes.

Will there be over 2.5 goals in Atletico Madrid vs Manchester United?

We estimate a 57% chance of three or more goals, so our tip is Over 2.5 goals.

Are these predictions guaranteed?

No. They are statistical estimates. A 70% tip should still lose about three times in ten, so only stake what you can afford to lose.

How often are predictions updated?

Predictions refresh automatically through the day as new data arrives, and every tip is marked right or wrong after full time.

More Champions League on Tue 13 Oct

FTSabah FA 2-0 Slavia Praha12 ✓FTLens 0-2 Sporting CP12 ✓FTInter 3-4 Club Brugge KV1 ✗FTArsenal 3-0 Lille1 ✓FTGalatasaray 1-4 BarcelonaOver 2.5 ✓FTRB Leipzig 1-0 PSV Eindhoven1 ✓FTVillarreal 3-1 NapoliOver 1.5 ✓FTViking 3-3 Bayern MünchenGG ✓

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