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Millwall vs Derby prediction

Millwall vs Derby prediction for the Championship on 31 Oct 2026: Over 1.5 (77%). Probabilities, betting markets, form, H2H and stats.

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Saturday31October 2026
Yesterday: 52/66 correct(79%)
Championship · Regular Season - 13
MillwallDerby
4 - 1Full time · Sat 31 OctHT 3-0
The Den, London

Match events

MillwallDerby
  1. Goal: Kyrell LisbieAssist: Lyndon Dykes3'
  2. Goal: Kyrell LisbieAssist: Caleb Taylor10'
  3. Goal: Luke CundleAssist: Camiel Neghli17'
  4. Yellow card: Lyndon DykesTime Wasting24'
  5. Yellow card: Derek Mazou SackoFoul32'
  6. 37'Substitution: Alex MowattOff: D. Ozoh
  7. 45+1'Yellow card: Rhian BrewsterFoul

HT 3-0

  1. 57'Substitution: Henrik Wendel MeisterOff: Mohammed Fuseini
  2. Substitution: Tristan CramaOff: Ryan Leonard67'
  3. Substitution: Lyndon DykesOff: Mihailo·Ivanovic68'
  4. 71'Yellow card: Carlton MorrisFoul
  5. Substitution: Camiel NeghliOff: Mark Sykes74'
  6. Substitution: Kyrell LisbieOff: Alfie Doughty74'
  7. 78'Substitution: Carlton MorrisOff: Lars-Jørgen Salvesen
  8. 78'Substitution: Sammie SzmodicsOff: Filip Bilbija
  9. 78'Substitution: Rhian BrewsterOff: Oscar Fraulo
  10. Substitution: Zak SturgeOff: Romain Esse78'
  11. Goal: Jake CooperAssist: Mihailo·Ivanovic84'
  12. 87'Goal: Filip Bilbija
  13. Yellow card: Jenson MetcalfeFoul89'

Our verdict

Over 1.5 ✓

Over 1.5

Bet365 1.25

77%

✓ This tip was correct · final score 4-1

Expected goals2.8

Win probability

1 · Millwall56%
Fair odds 1.79
X · Draw24%
Fair odds 4.17
2 · Derby20%
Fair odds 5.00

Match statistics

  • 56%Possession44%
  • 3.95Expected goals (xG)1.26
  • 22Total shots13
  • 9Shots on target4
  • 11Shots off target6
  • 2Blocked shots3
  • 18Shots inside the box8
  • 4Corners5
  • 1Offsides1
  • 9Fouls9
  • 3Yellow cards2
  • 0Red cards0
  • 3Goalkeeper saves5
  • 502Passes395
  • 411Accurate passes292

Line-ups

Millwall

4-2-3-1

Starting XI

  1. 15M. CrocombeG
  2. 4T. CramaD
  3. 6C. TaylorD
  4. 5J. CooperD
  5. 3Zak Norton SturgeD
  6. 14Jenson MetcalfeM
  7. 49D. Mazou-SackoM
  8. 10C. NeghliM
  9. 25L. CundleM
  10. 22K. LisbieM
  11. 13L. DykesF

Substitutes

  1. 17M. SykesM
  2. 41G. EvansG
  3. 19J. CoburnF
  4. 12E. BaggottD
  5. 45A. DoughtyM
  6. 9M. IvanovićF
  7. 16D. KellyM
  8. 11R. EsseM
  9. 18R. LeonardD

Coach: A. Neil

Derby

4-2-3-1

Starting XI

  1. 1J. Widell ZetterströmG
  2. 22M. JohnstonD
  3. 24R. NyambeD
  4. 14J. RobinsonD
  5. 26R. HedgesD
  6. 4D. OzohM
  7. 8B. ClarkM
  8. 10R. BrewsterM
  9. 11S. SzmodicsM
  10. 19H. MeisterM
  11. 9C. MorrisF

Substitutes

  1. 33C. Blackett-TaylorF
  2. 25S. DuffyD
  3. 29O. FrauloM
  4. 16M. FuseiniF
  5. 20A. MowattM
  6. 15L. SalvesenF
  7. 31J. VickersG
  8. 13F. BilbijaM
  9. 43I. GordonD

Coach: J. Eustace

Betting markets

Expected goals 1.80 – 1.00
0.5 goalsOver93.9%Under6.1%
1.5 goalsOver76.9%Under23.1%
2.5 goalsOver53.1%Under46.9%
3.5 goalsOver30.8%Under69.2%
4.5 goalsOver15.2%Under84.8%

Market percentages come from our model's expected goals for each side. Fair odds are 100 ÷ probability.

Model comparison

MillwallDerby
100%Form0%
67%Attack33%
63%Defence37%
50%Head to head50%
64%Expected goals36%
74%Overall26%

Last matches

Newest first
Millwall0W 1D 1L · last 2
DMillwall vs Lincoln17 Oct 2026 · Championship2-2LMillwall vs Swansea13 Oct 2026 · Championship0-1
Derby0W 0D 2L · last 2
LDerby vs Stoke City17 Oct 2026 · Championship0-1LQPR vs Derby14 Oct 2026 · Championship4-1

Championship table

Championship table
#TeamP+/-Pts
1Middlesbrough13+1328
2Swansea13+726
3Wolves13+724
4West Brom13+524
5Southampton13+1523
6Birmingham13+1023
7Stoke City13+423
8West Ham13+1522
9QPR13+520
10Sheffield Utd13+219
11Portsmouth13+119
12Millwall13+218
13Blackburn13-118
14Bristol City13-218
15Norwich13-115
16Lincoln13-915
17Cardiff13-114
18Wrexham13-414
19Bolton13-814
20Charlton13-1014
21Watford13-1111
22Burnley13-89
23Derby13-147
24Preston13-175
See full table ›

Top scorers

Championship top scorers
#PlayerMGoals
1W. LankshearMiddlesbrough1313
2A. GuðjohnsenBlackburn128
3C. LarinSouthampton117
4J. BowenWest Ham137
5Fer LópezWolves126

Season statistics

This season, all competitions we cover
StatMillwallDerby
Played22
Wins00
Draws10
Losses12
Goals for (avg)10.5
Goals against (avg)1.52.5
Clean sheets00
Failed to score11
Best win streak00

Recent goal lines

How many of each team's last 2 games went over the line

Over 1.51/21/2
Over 2.51/21/2
Over 3.51/21/2
BTTS – yes1/21/2

Match preview

Millwall host Derby in the Championship (Regular Season - 13) at The Den, London, with kick-off on Saturday, 31 October 2026 at 16:00 WAT.

Our prediction model makes Millwall favourites, giving Millwall a 56% chance of winning, 24% for the draw and 20% for Derby. Our tip is: Over 1.5.

Millwall have taken 1 points from their last 2 games (0W 1D 1L). Derby have taken 0 points from their last 2 games (0W 0D 2L).

On the goals markets, we expect goals, with a 53% chance of over 2.5 and a 53% chance that both teams score.

Competition
England Championship
Date
Saturday, 31 October 2026, 16:00 WAT
Venue
The Den, London

TodaysPrediction analysis team

Model-based football predictions. How our predictions work

Quick answers

When is Millwall vs Derby?

Millwall vs Derby kicks off on Saturday, 31 October 2026 at 16:00 West Africa Time.

Which competition is Millwall vs Derby in?

The match is in the England Championship.

Where are Millwall and Derby in the table?

Millwall are 12th and Derby are 23rd in the Championship.

Who will win Millwall vs Derby?

Our prediction is Over 1.5. Win probabilities: Millwall 56%, draw 24%, Derby 20%.

Will both teams score in Millwall vs Derby?

We estimate a 53% chance that both teams score, so our BTTS tip is Yes.

Will there be over 2.5 goals in Millwall vs Derby?

We estimate a 53% chance of three or more goals, so our tip is Over 2.5 goals.

Are these predictions guaranteed?

No. They are statistical estimates. A 70% tip should still lose about three times in ten, so only stake what you can afford to lose.

How often are predictions updated?

Predictions refresh automatically through the day as new data arrives, and every tip is marked right or wrong after full time.

More Championship on Sat 31 Oct

FTLincoln 1-3 BirminghamOver 1.5 ✓FTStoke City 2-0 PrestonOver 1.5 ✓FTNorwich 3-2 Watford1 ✓FTMiddlesbrough 3-0 Charlton1 ✓FTSwansea 4-0 BlackburnOver 1.5 ✓FTSouthampton 4-1 QPR1X ✓FTWolves 3-0 Cardiff1 ✓FTBurnley 0-0 PortsmouthOver 1.5 ✗FTWest Ham 1-3 West BromOver 1.5 ✓FTBolton 2-3 Bristol CityOver 1.5 ✓

All football predictions for today