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Napoli vs AS Roma prediction

Napoli vs AS Roma prediction for the Serie A on 24 Oct 2026: AS Roma or draw (66%). Probabilities, betting markets, form, H2H and stats.

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Saturday24October 2026
Yesterday: 78/96 correct(81%)
Serie A · Regular Season - 8
NapoliAS Roma
3 - 3Full time · Sat 24 OctHT 1-0
Maradona Stadium, Naples

Match events

NapoliAS Roma
  1. Yellow card: Rafael Marin ZamoraFoul4'
  2. Goal: Frank Anguissa28'
  3. 30'Yellow card: Bryan CristanteFoul
  4. 45'Yellow card: Devyne RenschFoul

HT 1-0

  1. Goal: Scott McTominayAssist: Matteo Politano48'
  2. Substitution: Benoît BadiashileOff: Sam Beukema52'
  3. 58'Substitution: Devyne RenschOff: Nahuel Molina
  4. 58'Substitution: Mario HermosoOff: Leonardo Balerdi
  5. 58'Substitution: Niccolò PisilliOff: Santiago Thomas Castro
  6. 61'Yellow card: Leonardo BalerdiFoul
  7. Substitution: Matteo PolitanoOff: Giovane Santana Do Nascimento66'
  8. 69'Goal: Matias SouleAssist: Donyell Malen
  9. 74'Goal: Leonardo BalerdiAssist: Santiago Thomas Castro
  10. Substitution: Noa LangOff: Antonio Vergara79'
  11. Substitution: Kevin De BruyneOff: Stanislav Lobotka79'
  12. Substitution: Giovanni Di LorenzoOff: Leonardo Spinazzola80'
  13. Goal: Scott McTominayAssist: Mathias Olivera83'
  14. 84'Substitution: Gianluca ManciniOff: Daniele Ghilardi
  15. 84'Substitution: Donyell MalenOff: Rodrigo Mora
  16. 86'Yellow card: Marten de RoonDissent
  17. 89'Goal: Leonardo BalerdiAssist: Wesley Vinícius França Lima
  18. Red card: Massimiliano AllegriAbusive Language90'

Our verdict

X2 ✓

AS Roma or draw

Bet365 1.40

66%

✓ This tip was correct · final score 3-3

Expected goals2.6

Win probability

1 · Napoli34%
Fair odds 2.94
X · Draw28%
Fair odds 3.57
2 · AS Roma38%
Fair odds 2.63

Match statistics

  • 40%Possession60%
  • 2.42Expected goals (xG)1.92
  • 15Total shots24
  • 9Shots on target4
  • 5Shots off target7
  • 1Blocked shots13
  • 10Shots inside the box14
  • 2Corners11
  • 0Offsides1
  • 6Fouls11
  • 1Yellow cards4
  • 0Red cards0
  • 1Goalkeeper saves5
  • 378Passes578
  • 296Accurate passes498

Line-ups

Napoli

4-3-3

Starting XI

  1. 1A. MeretG
  2. 22G. Di LorenzoD
  3. 16Rafa MarínD
  4. 5B. BadiashileD
  5. 17M. OliveraD
  6. 11K. De BruyneM
  7. 99A. Zambo AnguissaM
  8. 8S. McTominayM
  9. 21M. PolitanoF
  10. 19R. HøjlundF
  11. 70N. LangF

Substitutes

  1. 31S. BeukemaD
  2. 14N. ContiniG
  3. 6B. GilmourM
  4. 23GiovaneF
  5. 68S. LobotkaM
  6. 20L. LuccaF
  7. 35Luca MarianucciD
  8. 32V. Milinković-SavićG
  9. 37L. SpinazzolaD
  10. 26A. VergaraM

Coach: M. Allegri

AS Roma

3-5-2

Starting XI

  1. 95P. GolliniG
  2. 23G. ManciniD
  3. 5E. NdickaD
  4. 22HermosoD
  5. 2D. RenschM
  6. 15M. de RoonM
  7. 4B. CristanteM
  8. 61N. PisilliM
  9. 43WesleyM
  10. 18M. SouléF
  11. 14D. MalenF

Substitutes

  1. 32D. VásquezG
  2. 20N. MolinaD
  3. 77E. LulliD
  4. 3K. KoulierakisD
  5. 87D. GhilardiD
  6. 63Alessandro Di NunzioM
  7. 70G. De MarziG
  8. 9S. CastroF
  9. 78Mandjou CamaraF
  10. 26L. BalerdiD
  11. 86Rodrigo MoraM

Coach: G. Gasperini

Betting markets

Expected goals 1.24 – 1.32
0.5 goalsOver92.3%Under7.7%
1.5 goalsOver72.5%Under27.5%
2.5 goalsOver47.1%Under52.9%
3.5 goalsOver25.5%Under74.5%
4.5 goalsOver11.7%Under88.3%

Market percentages come from our model's expected goals for each side. Fair odds are 100 ÷ probability.

Model comparison

NapoliAS Roma
33%Form67%
36%Attack64%
36%Defence64%
50%Head to head50%
48%Expected goals52%
47%Overall53%

Last matches

Newest first
Napoli1W 0D 2L · last 3
WNapoli vs Bodo/Glimt20 Oct 2026 · Champions League4-3LVenezia vs Napoli17 Oct 2026 · Serie A1-0LVillarreal vs Napoli13 Oct 2026 · Champions League3-1
AS Roma2W 0D 1L · last 3
WAS Roma vs Slovan Bratislava20 Oct 2026 · Champions League4-0WAS Roma vs Genoa17 Oct 2026 · Serie A2-0LAS Roma vs Real Madrid14 Oct 2026 · Champions League3-4

Serie A table

Serie A table
#TeamP+/-Pts
1Lazio9+1525
2Inter10+1325
3AS Roma10+1824
4AC Milan10+921
5Como9+920
6Frosinone9+817
7Napoli9+614
8Bologna10+114
9Juventus9+114
10Torino9013
11Cagliari9-513
12Atalanta9-111
13Genoa9-510
14Lecce9-99
15Sassuolo9-88
16Monza10-77
17Fiorentina9-105
18Parma9-105
19Udinese10-125
20Venezia9-133
See full table ›

Top scorers

Serie A top scorers
#PlayerMGoals
1A. RaimondoFrosinone98
2Gustavo VarelaMonza88
3D. MalenAS Roma87
4N. KrstovićAtalanta96
5M. ThuramInter85

Season statistics

This season, all competitions we cover
StatNapoliAS Roma
Played33
Wins12
Draws00
Losses21
Goals for (avg)1.73
Goals against (avg)2.31.3
Clean sheets02
Failed to score10
Best win streak12

Recent goal lines

How many of each team's last 3 games went over the line

Over 1.52/33/3
Over 2.52/32/3
Over 3.52/32/3
BTTS – yes2/31/3

Match preview

Napoli host AS Roma in the Serie A (Regular Season - 8) at Maradona Stadium, Naples, with kick-off on Saturday, 24 October 2026 at 17:00 WAT.

Our prediction model makes AS Roma narrow favourites, giving Napoli a 34% chance of winning, 28% for the draw and 38% for AS Roma. Our tip is: AS Roma or draw.

Napoli have taken 3 points from their last 3 games (1W 0D 2L). AS Roma have taken 6 points from their last 3 games (2W 0D 1L).

On the goals markets, we expect a tighter game, with only a 47% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance that both teams score.

Competition
Italy Serie A
Date
Saturday, 24 October 2026, 17:00 WAT
Venue
Maradona Stadium, Naples

TodaysPrediction analysis team

Model-based football predictions. How our predictions work

Quick answers

When is Napoli vs AS Roma?

Napoli vs AS Roma kicks off on Saturday, 24 October 2026 at 17:00 West Africa Time.

Which competition is Napoli vs AS Roma in?

The match is in the Italy Serie A.

Where are Napoli and AS Roma in the table?

Napoli are 7th and AS Roma are 3rd in the Serie A.

Who will win Napoli vs AS Roma?

Our prediction is AS Roma or draw. Win probabilities: Napoli 34%, draw 28%, AS Roma 38%.

Will both teams score in Napoli vs AS Roma?

We estimate a 53% chance that both teams score, so our BTTS tip is Yes.

Will there be over 2.5 goals in Napoli vs AS Roma?

We estimate a 47% chance of three or more goals, so our tip is Under 2.5 goals.

Are these predictions guaranteed?

No. They are statistical estimates. A 70% tip should still lose about three times in ten, so only stake what you can afford to lose.

How often are predictions updated?

Predictions refresh automatically through the day as new data arrives, and every tip is marked right or wrong after full time.

More Serie A on Sat 24 Oct

FTCagliari 0-2 BolognaX2 ✓FTComo 2-0 Sassuolo1 ✓FTLazio 2-1 ParmaOver 1.5 ✓

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