Serie A · Regular Season - 9
Match events
Napoli- Yellow card: Saba GoglichidzeFoul8'
- 10'Goal: Rasmus HojlundAssist: Giovanni Di Lorenzo
- 17'Substitution: Stanislav LobotkaOff: Billy Gilmour
- Yellow card: Ivan JuricDissent25'
- Goal: Gustavo VarelaAssist: Jay Robinson43'
- 45'Substitution: Luca MarianucciOff: Amir Rrahmani
- Substitution: Saba GoglichidzeOff: Andrea Carboni45'
HT 1-1
- 48'Goal: Matteo Politano
- Yellow card: Foe OndoaFoul52'
- Substitution: Cyril NgongeOff: Andrea Colpani60'
- Substitution: Foe OndoaOff: Ebenezer Akinsanmiro60'
- 62'Goal: Rafael Marin ZamoraAssist: Matteo Politano
- 63'Substitution: Frank AnguissaOff: Kevin De Bruyne
- 63'Substitution: Matteo PolitanoOff: Antonio Vergara
- 67'Goal: Kevin De BruyneAssist: Noa Lang
- Substitution: Exequiel ZeballosOff: Jay Robinson69'
- Substitution: Lorenzo LucchesiOff: Valentin Antov74'
- 81'Substitution: Rasmus HojlundOff: Lorenzo Lucca
- Yellow card: Leonardo ColomboFoul88'
Our verdict
Over 1.5
Bet365 1.22
✓ This tip was correct · final score 1-4
Win probability
Match statistics
- 35%Possession65%
- 0.81Expected goals (xG)1.43
- 12Total shots16
- 5Shots on target7
- 4Shots off target5
- 3Blocked shots4
- 3Shots inside the box12
- 2Corners2
- 1Offsides4
- 14Fouls6
- 3Yellow cards0
- 0Red cards0
- 3Goalkeeper saves4
- 333Passes628
- 273Accurate passes553
Line-ups
Monza
3-4-2-1Starting XI
- 1N. TörnqvistG
- 19S. BirindelliD
- 2S. GoglichidzeD
- 3L. LucchesiD
- 24A. BakouneM
- 8M. OndoaM
- 21L. ColomboM
- 7Ricardo MangasM
- 16C. NgongeM
- 46Jay RobinsonM
- 9Gustavo VarelaF
Substitutes
- 27I. TouréM
- 14E. AkinsanmiroM
- 22E. ZeballosF
- 20D. ThiamG
- 6V. AntovD
- 44A. CarboniD
- 26P. CiurriaF
- 28A. ColpaniM
- 10P. CutroneF
- 11O. ForsonF
- 60E. KouadioD
- 47Dany MotaF
- 80M. MoutM
- 43A. StrajnarG
Coach: I. Juric
Napoli
4-3-3Starting XI
- 32V. Milinković-SavićG
- 22G. Di LorenzoD
- 13Amir RrahmaniD
- 16Rafa MarínD
- 17M. OliveraD
- 99A. Zambo AnguissaM
- 68S. LobotkaM
- 8S. McTominayM
- 21M. PolitanoF
- 19R. HøjlundF
- 70N. LangF
Substitutes
- 1A. MeretG
- 35Luca MarianucciD
- 20L. LuccaF
- 23GiovaneF
- 6B. GilmourM
- 11K. De BruyneM
- 14N. ContiniG
- 31S. BeukemaD
- 26A. VergaraM
Coach: M. Allegri
Betting markets
Expected goals 1.12 – 1.78Half time / full time result. 1 = Monza, X = draw, 2 = Napoli.
Asian handicap applied to Monza.
Market percentages come from our model's expected goals for each side. Fair odds are 100 ÷ probability.
Model comparison
Last matches
Newest firstMonza1W 0D 1L · last 2Napoli1W 1D 2L · last 4Serie A table
| # | Team | P | +/- | Pts | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lazio | 9 | 8 | 1 | 0 | +15 | 25 | WWWWW |
| 2 | Inter | 10 | 8 | 1 | 1 | +13 | 25 | LWWWW |
| 3 | AS Roma | 10 | 7 | 3 | 0 | +18 | 24 | WWDWD |
| 4 | AC Milan | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | +9 | 21 | WLWWD |
| 5 | Como | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | +9 | 20 | WWWDL |
| 6 | Frosinone | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | +8 | 17 | WDWLW |
| 7 | Napoli | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | +6 | 14 | WDLWD |
| 8 | Bologna | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | +1 | 14 | WWWLW |
| 9 | Juventus | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | +1 | 14 | LWLDW |
| 10 | Torino | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 13 | LWWWD |
| 11 | Cagliari | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | -5 | 13 | LLLDW |
| 12 | Atalanta | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -1 | 11 | DDLWL |
| 13 | Genoa | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | -5 | 10 | WWLWL |
| 14 | Lecce | 9 | 3 | 0 | 6 | -9 | 9 | LLWLL |
| 15 | Sassuolo | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -8 | 8 | LLLDL |
| 16 | Monza | 10 | 2 | 1 | 7 | -7 | 7 | LLLWL |
| 17 | Fiorentina | 9 | 1 | 2 | 6 | -10 | 5 | DLLLD |
| 18 | Parma | 9 | 1 | 2 | 6 | -10 | 5 | DLLLW |
| 19 | Udinese | 10 | 1 | 2 | 7 | -12 | 5 | LDLLL |
| 20 | Venezia | 9 | 1 | 0 | 8 | -13 | 3 | LLWLL |
Top scorers
| # | Player | M | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Gustavo VarelaMonza | 9 | 9 |
| 2 |  D. MalenAS Roma | 9 | 8 |
| 3 |  A. RaimondoFrosinone | 9 | 8 |
| 4 |  N. KrstovićAtalanta | 9 | 6 |
| 5 |  A. RabiotAC Milan | 8 | 5 |
Season statistics
This season, all competitions we cover| Stat | Monza | Napoli |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 2 | 4 |
| Wins | 1 | 1 |
| Draws | 0 | 1 |
| Losses | 1 | 2 |
| Goals for (avg) | 3 | 2 |
| Goals against (avg) | 1.5 | 2.5 |
| Clean sheets | 1 | 0 |
| Failed to score | 0 | 1 |
| Best win streak | 1 | 1 |
Recent goal lines
How many of each team's last 4 games went over the line
| Over 1.5 | 2/2 | 3/4 |
|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 | 2/2 | 3/4 |
| Over 3.5 | 2/2 | 3/4 |
| BTTS – yes | 1/2 | 3/4 |
Match preview
Monza host Napoli in the Serie A (Regular Season - 9) at Stadio Brianteo, Monza, with kick-off on Wednesday, 28 October 2026 at 20:45 WAT.
Our prediction model makes Napoli favourites, giving Monza a 23% chance of winning, 25% for the draw and 52% for Napoli. Our tip is: Over 1.5.
Monza have taken 3 points from their last 2 games (1W 0D 1L). Napoli have taken 4 points from their last 4 games (1W 1D 2L).
On the goals markets, we expect goals, with a 55% chance of over 2.5 and a 57% chance that both teams score.
- Competition
- Italy Serie A
- Date
- Wednesday, 28 October 2026, 20:45 WAT
- Venue
- Stadio Brianteo, Monza
TodaysPrediction analysis team
Model-based football predictions. How our predictions work
Quick answers
When is Monza vs Napoli?
Monza vs Napoli kicks off on Wednesday, 28 October 2026 at 20:45 West Africa Time.
Which competition is Monza vs Napoli in?
The match is in the Italy Serie A.
Where are Monza and Napoli in the table?
Monza are 16th and Napoli are 7th in the Serie A.
Who will win Monza vs Napoli?
Our prediction is Over 1.5. Win probabilities: Monza 23%, draw 25%, Napoli 52%.
Will both teams score in Monza vs Napoli?
We estimate a 57% chance that both teams score, so our BTTS tip is Yes.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Monza vs Napoli?
We estimate a 55% chance of three or more goals, so our tip is Over 2.5 goals.
Are these predictions guaranteed?
No. They are statistical estimates. A 70% tip should still lose about three times in ten, so only stake what you can afford to lose.
How often are predictions updated?
Predictions refresh automatically through the day as new data arrives, and every tip is marked right or wrong after full time.