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Monza vs Cagliari prediction

Monza vs Cagliari prediction for the Serie A on 19 Oct 2026: Under 3.5 (76%). Probabilities, betting markets, form, H2H and stats.

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Monday19October 2026
Yesterday: 78/96 correct(81%)
Serie A · Regular Season - 7
MonzaNo recent gamesCagliariNo recent games
4 - 0Full time · Mon 19 OctHT 1-0
Stadio Brianteo, Monza

Match events

MonzaCagliari
  1. Goal: Eddy KouadioAssist: Dany Mota39'

HT 1-0

  1. Goal: Gustavo VarelaAssist: Foe Ondoa47'
  2. 53'Substitution: M'Bala NzolaOff: Alieu Fadera
  3. Substitution: Andrea ColpaniOff: Dany Mota64'
  4. Goal: Jay RobinsonAssist: Gustavo Varela66'
  5. 67'Substitution: Yukinari SugawaraOff: Zé Pedro
  6. 67'Substitution: Daniel MaldiniOff: Kevin Carlos
  7. 76'Yellow card: Harry WinksFoul
  8. Goal: Gustavo Varela79'
  9. Substitution: Ebenezer AkinsanmiroOff: Michael Folorunsho81'
  10. Substitution: Patrick CutroneOff: Gustavo Varela81'
  11. Substitution: Eddy KouadioOff: Adam Bakoune81'
  12. 81'Substitution: Alessandro RomanoOff: Alessandro Deiola
  13. 81'Substitution: Harry WinksOff: Joseph Liteta
  14. Yellow card: Samuele BirindelliArgument82'
  15. 82'Yellow card: Alieu FaderaArgument
  16. Substitution: Omari ForsonOff: Jay Robinson87'

Our verdict

Under 3.5 ✗

Under 3.5

Bet365 1.28

76%

✗ This tip lost · final score 4-0

Expected goals2.5

Win probability

1 · Monza40%
Fair odds 2.50
X · Draw28%
Fair odds 3.57
2 · Cagliari32%
Fair odds 3.13

Match statistics

  • 45%Possession55%
  • 2.08Expected goals (xG)1.92
  • 14Total shots16
  • 6Shots on target5
  • 5Shots off target9
  • 3Blocked shots2
  • 10Shots inside the box13
  • 2Corners7
  • 2Offsides1
  • 10Fouls14
  • 1Yellow cards2
  • 0Red cards0
  • 5Goalkeeper saves2
  • 416Passes503
  • 345Accurate passes430

Line-ups

Monza

3-4-2-1

Starting XI

  1. 1N. TörnqvistG
  2. 60E. KouadioD
  3. 2S. GoglichidzeD
  4. 44A. CarboniD
  5. 19S. BirindelliM
  6. 8M. OndoaM
  7. 14E. AkinsanmiroM
  8. 7Ricardo MangasM
  9. 47Dany MotaM
  10. 46Jay RobinsonM
  11. 9Gustavo VarelaF

Substitutes

  1. 6V. AntovD
  2. 24A. BakouneD
  3. 26P. CiurriaF
  4. 21L. ColomboM
  5. 28A. ColpaniM
  6. 10P. CutroneF
  7. 90M. FolorunshoM
  8. 11O. ForsonF
  9. 80M. MoutM
  10. 16C. NgongeF
  11. 43A. StrajnarG
  12. 20D. ThiamG

Coach: I. Juric

Cagliari

4-3-1-2

Starting XI

  1. 1E. CaprileG
  2. 2Zé PedroD
  3. 26Y. MinaD
  4. 15J. RodríguezD
  5. 33A. ObertD
  6. 8M. AdopoM
  7. 6H. WinksM
  8. 4A. RomanoM
  9. 70D. MaldiniM
  10. 31P. MendyF
  11. 18M'Bala NzolaF

Substitutes

  1. 28Y. SugawaraD
  2. 32Ivan Stoyanov SulevM
  3. 14A. DeiolaM
  4. 12A. SherriG
  5. 23B. RadunovićG
  6. 79Y. MassolinM
  7. 27J. LitetaM
  8. 22R. KoflerD
  9. 9Kevin CarlosF
  10. 21R. GagliardiniM
  11. 10J. FazziniM
  12. 39A. FaderaF
  13. 20R. CiervoF
  14. 24G. AurelioD

Coach: F. Pisacane

Betting markets

Expected goals 1.33 – 1.17
0.5 goalsOver91.8%Under8.2%
1.5 goalsOver71.3%Under28.7%
2.5 goalsOver45.6%Under54.4%
3.5 goalsOver24.2%Under75.8%
4.5 goalsOver10.9%Under89.1%

Market percentages come from our model's expected goals for each side. Fair odds are 100 ÷ probability.

Model comparison

MonzaCagliari
50%Form50%
50%Attack50%
50%Defence50%
50%Head to head50%
53%Expected goals47%
56%Overall44%

Last matches

Newest first
Monza0W 0D 0L · last 0

No finished matches yet.

Cagliari0W 0D 0L · last 0

No finished matches yet.

Serie A table

Serie A table
#TeamP+/-Pts
1Lazio9+1525
2Inter10+1325
3AS Roma10+1824
4AC Milan10+921
5Como9+920
6Frosinone9+817
7Napoli9+614
8Bologna10+114
9Juventus9+114
10Torino9013
11Cagliari9-513
12Atalanta9-111
13Genoa9-510
14Lecce9-99
15Sassuolo9-88
16Monza10-77
17Fiorentina9-105
18Parma9-105
19Udinese10-125
20Venezia9-133
See full table ›

Top scorers

Serie A top scorers
#PlayerMGoals
1Gustavo VarelaMonza99
2D. MalenAS Roma98
3A. RaimondoFrosinone98
4N. KrstovićAtalanta96
5A. RabiotAC Milan85

Season statistics

This season, all competitions we cover
StatMonzaCagliari
Played00
Wins00
Draws00
Losses00
Goals for (avg)00
Goals against (avg)00
Clean sheets00
Failed to score00
Best win streak00

Match preview

Monza host Cagliari in the Serie A (Regular Season - 7) at Stadio Brianteo, Monza, with kick-off on Monday, 19 October 2026 at 17:30 WAT.

Our prediction model makes Monza slight favourites, giving Monza a 40% chance of winning, 28% for the draw and 32% for Cagliari. Our tip is: Under 3.5.

On the goals markets, we expect a tighter game, with only a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 51% chance that both teams score.

Competition
Italy Serie A
Date
Monday, 19 October 2026, 17:30 WAT
Venue
Stadio Brianteo, Monza

TodaysPrediction analysis team

Model-based football predictions. How our predictions work

Quick answers

When is Monza vs Cagliari?

Monza vs Cagliari kicks off on Monday, 19 October 2026 at 17:30 West Africa Time.

Which competition is Monza vs Cagliari in?

The match is in the Italy Serie A.

Where are Monza and Cagliari in the table?

Monza are 16th and Cagliari are 11th in the Serie A.

Who will win Monza vs Cagliari?

Our prediction is Under 3.5. Win probabilities: Monza 40%, draw 28%, Cagliari 32%.

Will both teams score in Monza vs Cagliari?

We estimate a 51% chance that both teams score, so our BTTS tip is Yes.

Will there be over 2.5 goals in Monza vs Cagliari?

We estimate a 46% chance of three or more goals, so our tip is Under 2.5 goals.

Are these predictions guaranteed?

No. They are statistical estimates. A 70% tip should still lose about three times in ten, so only stake what you can afford to lose.

How often are predictions updated?

Predictions refresh automatically through the day as new data arrives, and every tip is marked right or wrong after full time.

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