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AC Milan vs Bologna prediction

AC Milan vs Bologna prediction for the Serie A on 28 Oct 2026: Over 1.5 (76%). Probabilities, betting markets, form, H2H and stats.

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Wednesday28October 2026
Yesterday: 52/66 correct(79%)
Serie A · Regular Season - 9
AC MilanBologna
2 - 4Full time · Wed 28 OctHT 2-1
San Siro/Giuseppe Meazza, Milan

Match events

AC MilanBologna
  1. 8'Goal: Samuel Mbangula TshifundaAssist: Nadir Zortea
  2. Goal: Alphadjo Cissè14'
  3. Goal: Alphadjo CissèAssist: Fikayo Tomori27'
  4. Substitution: Fikayo TomoriOff: Luka Modrić45'

HT 2-1

  1. Substitution: Pervis EstupinanOff: Sankhoun Diawara58'
  2. Substitution: Omari HutchinsonOff: Christian Pulisic58'
  3. 58'Substitution: Matteo DarmianOff: Martin Vitik
  4. 59'Substitution: Rahim AlhassaneOff: Juan Miranda
  5. 59'Substitution: Federico BernardeschiOff: Nicolo Cambiaghi
  6. 60'Own goal: Davide Bartesaghi (og)
  7. 62'Goal: Samuel Mbangula TshifundaAssist: Juan Miranda
  8. Substitution: Davide BartesaghiOff: Francesco Camarda63'
  9. 70'Substitution: Arthur TheateOff: Torbjørn Heggem
  10. 76'Yellow card: Tommaso PobegaFoul
  11. 79'Substitution: Nicolo CasaleOff: Eivind Helland
  12. 84'Yellow card: Torbjørn HeggemFoul
  13. 86'Goal: Samuel Mbangula TshifundaAssist: Jens Odgaard
  14. Substitution: Christian ComottoOff: Gonçalo Ramos87'

Our verdict

Over 1.5 ✓

Over 1.5

Bet365 1.25

76%

✓ This tip was correct · final score 2-4

Expected goals2.7

Win probability

1 · AC Milan56%
Fair odds 1.79
X · Draw25%
Fair odds 4.00
2 · Bologna19%
Fair odds 5.26

Match statistics

  • 66%Possession34%
  • 1.75Expected goals (xG)1.88
  • 8Total shots9
  • 3Shots on target5
  • 4Shots off target3
  • 1Blocked shots1
  • 6Shots inside the box6
  • 2Corners3
  • 0Offsides1
  • 10Fouls16
  • 0Yellow cards2
  • 0Red cards0
  • 2Goalkeeper saves1
  • 671Passes338
  • 591Accurate passes270

Line-ups

AC Milan

4-2-3-1

Starting XI

  1. 16M. MaignanG
  2. 23F. TomoriD
  3. 5K. De WinterD
  4. 31S. PavlovićD
  5. 2P. EstupiñánD
  6. 80Y. MusahM
  7. 30A. JashariM
  8. 20O. HutchinsonM
  9. 70A. CissèM
  10. 33D. BartesaghiM
  11. 9Gonçalo RamosF

Substitutes

  1. 55Silvano VosM
  2. 73F. CamardaF
  3. 41L. P. BouyerG
  4. 28C. ComottoM
  5. 13S. BocoumD
  6. 14L. ModrićM
  7. 40L. OssolaM
  8. 11C. PulišićM
  9. 42F. TerraccianoD
  10. 96L. TorrianiG
  11. 35V. VladimirovD
  12. 47N. PereraD
  13. 49Luka MenonF
  14. 48El Hadji Malick CisséD

Coach: Ruben Amorim

Bologna

3-4-3

Starting XI

  1. 1Ł. SkorupskiG
  2. 36M. DarmianD
  3. 16N. CasaleD
  4. 3A. TheateD
  5. 20N. ZorteaM
  6. 19L. FergusonM
  7. 4T. PobegaM
  8. 23R. AlhassaneM
  9. 10F. BernardeschiF
  10. 21J. OdgaardF
  11. 11S. MbangulaF

Substitutes

  1. 41M. VitíkD
  2. 25M. PessinaG
  3. 6N. MoroM
  4. 33Juan MirandaD
  5. 18M. LibraM
  6. 14T. HeggemD
  7. 72U. HapponenG
  8. 5E. HellandD
  9. 17O. El AzzouziM
  10. 9A. DovbykF
  11. 8M. AmondarainM
  12. 28N. CambiaghiF
  13. 43Luca Lo MonacoM

Coach: Raffaele Palladino

Betting markets

Expected goals 1.77 – 0.94
0.5 goalsOver93.3%Under6.7%
1.5 goalsOver75.3%Under24.7%
2.5 goalsOver50.9%Under49.1%
3.5 goalsOver28.8%Under71.2%
4.5 goalsOver13.9%Under86.1%

Market percentages come from our model's expected goals for each side. Fair odds are 100 ÷ probability.

Model comparison

AC MilanBologna
67%Form33%
61%Attack39%
47%Defence53%
50%Head to head50%
65%Expected goals35%
75%Overall25%

Last matches

Newest first
AC Milan2W 0D 1L · last 3
LBournemouth vs AC Milan22 Oct 2026 · Europa League3-0WAC Milan vs Atalanta18 Oct 2026 · Serie A3-2WRed Bull Salzburg vs AC Milan15 Oct 2026 · Europa League0-4
Bologna1W 0D 1L · last 2
WCagliari vs Bologna24 Oct 2026 · Serie A0-2LBologna vs Inter17 Oct 2026 · Serie A1-3

Serie A table

Serie A table
#TeamP+/-Pts
1Lazio10+1628
2Inter10+1325
3AS Roma10+1824
4Como10+1023
5AC Milan10+921
6Frosinone10+1020
7Juventus10+317
8Napoli10+414
9Bologna10+114
10Torino10-213
11Genoa10-413
12Cagliari10-613
13Atalanta9-111
14Lecce10-109
15Sassuolo9-88
16Monza10-77
17Fiorentina9-105
18Parma9-105
19Udinese10-125
20Venezia10-143
See full table ›

Top scorers

Serie A top scorers
#PlayerMGoals
1Gustavo VarelaMonza99
2D. MalenAS Roma98
3A. RaimondoFrosinone108
4N. KrstovićAtalanta96
5A. RabiotAC Milan85

Season statistics

This season, all competitions we cover
StatAC MilanBologna
Played32
Wins21
Draws00
Losses11
Goals for (avg)2.31.5
Goals against (avg)1.71.5
Clean sheets11
Failed to score10
Best win streak21

Recent goal lines

How many of each team's last 3 games went over the line

Over 1.53/32/2
Over 2.53/31/2
Over 3.52/31/2
BTTS – yes1/31/2

Match preview

AC Milan host Bologna in the Serie A (Regular Season - 9) at San Siro/Giuseppe Meazza, Milan, with kick-off on Wednesday, 28 October 2026 at 18:30 WAT.

Our prediction model makes AC Milan favourites, giving AC Milan a 56% chance of winning, 25% for the draw and 19% for Bologna. Our tip is: Over 1.5.

AC Milan have taken 6 points from their last 3 games (2W 0D 1L). Bologna have taken 3 points from their last 2 games (1W 0D 1L).

On the goals markets, we expect goals, with a 51% chance of over 2.5 and a 51% chance that both teams score.

Competition
Italy Serie A
Date
Wednesday, 28 October 2026, 18:30 WAT
Venue
San Siro/Giuseppe Meazza, Milan

TodaysPrediction analysis team

Model-based football predictions. How our predictions work

Quick answers

When is AC Milan vs Bologna?

AC Milan vs Bologna kicks off on Wednesday, 28 October 2026 at 18:30 West Africa Time.

Which competition is AC Milan vs Bologna in?

The match is in the Italy Serie A.

Where are AC Milan and Bologna in the table?

AC Milan are 5th and Bologna are 9th in the Serie A.

Who will win AC Milan vs Bologna?

Our prediction is Over 1.5. Win probabilities: AC Milan 56%, draw 25%, Bologna 19%.

Will both teams score in AC Milan vs Bologna?

We estimate a 51% chance that both teams score, so our BTTS tip is Yes.

Will there be over 2.5 goals in AC Milan vs Bologna?

We estimate a 51% chance of three or more goals, so our tip is Over 2.5 goals.

Are these predictions guaranteed?

No. They are statistical estimates. A 70% tip should still lose about three times in ten, so only stake what you can afford to lose.

How often are predictions updated?

Predictions refresh automatically through the day as new data arrives, and every tip is marked right or wrong after full time.

More Serie A on Wed 28 Oct

FTParma 0-0 UdineseX2 ✓FTVenezia 0-2 Inter2 ✓FTGenoa 2-0 Juventus2 ✗FTMonza 1-4 NapoliOver 1.5 ✓

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