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FK Liepaja vs Super Nova prediction

FK Liepaja vs Super Nova prediction for the Virsliga on 1 Nov 2026: Over 1.5 (81%). Probabilities, betting markets, form, H2H and stats.

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Sunday1November 2026
Yesterday: 52/66 correct(79%)
Virsliga · Regular Season - 35
FK LiepajaSuper Nova
3 - 3Full time · Sun 1 NovHT 1-0
Daugava Stadium, Liepaja

Match events

FK LiepajaSuper Nova
  1. Goal: Amar haidaraAssist: Bart Straalman39'
  2. Yellow card: abiodun ogunniyi45+1'

HT 1-0

  1. Yellow card: Joao Pedro De Souza Borges50'
  2. 54'Goal: Valerijs lizunovs
  3. Yellow card: kirils iljins57'
  4. Substitution: abiodun ogunniyiOff: Kyvon·Leidsman61'
  5. 62'Substitution: agris glaudansOff: Bamba
  6. 63'Yellow card: Yellow card
  7. 63'Red card: Eduards Emsis
  8. Yellow card: Bart Straalman65'
  9. Goal: Amar haidara67'
  10. Substitution: Joao Pedro De Souza BorgesOff: Marvin Martins70'
  11. 77'Goal: Valerijs lizunovs
  12. Goal: oloko joseph ede81'
  13. Missed penalty: oloko joseph ede81'
  14. 82'Substitution: raivis kirssOff: Kristers Skadmanis
  15. 85'Goal: agris glaudansAssist: ivans patrikejevs
  16. Substitution: andrii korobenkoOff: Bruno Melnis86'
  17. 88'Substitution: Valerijs lizunovsOff: Ndiaye Pathé
  18. 88'Substitution: ivans patrikejevsOff: milans tihonovics

Our verdict

Over 1.5 ✓

Over 1.5

Bet365 1.20

81%

✓ This tip was correct · final score 3-3

Expected goals3.0

Win probability

1 · FK Liepaja63%
Fair odds 1.59
X · Draw21%
Fair odds 4.76
2 · Super Nova16%
Fair odds 6.25

Match statistics

  • 60%Possession40%
  • 2.42Expected goals (xG)2.07
  • 16Total shots14
  • 9Shots on target5
  • 7Shots off target4
  • 0Blocked shots5
  • 13Shots inside the box9
  • 4Corners1
  • 1Offsides2
  • 18Fouls17
  • 5Yellow cards1
  • 0Red cards1
  • 2Goalkeeper saves5
  • 513Passes302
  • 409Accurate passes209

Line-ups

FK Liepaja

4-2-3-1

Starting XI

  1. 24D. OšsG
  2. 2B. StraalmanD
  3. 34João PedroD
  4. 26V. IsajevsD
  5. 3K. IļjinsD
  6. 5L. StrumiaF
  7. 28A. KorobenkoM
  8. 23A. HaïdaraM
  9. 7A. OgunniyiM
  10. 70D. PatijčuksF
  11. 18J. EdeF

Substitutes

  1. 9Crysthyan LucasF
  2. 29Lauris LakutisM
  3. 44K. LeidsmanF
  4. 77Afonso LeiteF
  5. 4M. MartinsD
  6. 17B. MelnisF
  7. 22Irad MushindiM
  8. 12D. PetkovićG
  9. 35V. SorokinsD

Coach: J. Goba

Super Nova

4-4-2

Starting XI

  1. 90D. VeisbuksG
  2. 5J. CīrulisD
  3. 20I. NdiayeD
  4. 2K. AugustsD
  5. 3R. IidaD
  6. 15R. ĶiršsF
  7. 24R. ŠitjakovsM
  8. 6E. EmsisM
  9. 9Bamba
  10. 8I. PatrikejevsM
  11. 10V. LizunovsF

Substitutes

  1. 21M. TihonovičsM
  2. 22Kristers SkadmanisM
  3. 31Viesturs PipcansG
  4. 27N. PatheD
  5. 25M. OšsD
  6. 7A. GlaudānsF
  7. 4L. BerzinsD
  8. 29A. BaghdasaryanF

Coach: M. Rafalskis

Betting markets

Expected goals 2.08 – 0.95
0.5 goalsOver95.2%Under4.8%
1.5 goalsOver80.5%Under19.5%
2.5 goalsOver58.3%Under41.7%
3.5 goalsOver35.9%Under64.1%
4.5 goalsOver19.0%Under81.0%

Market percentages come from our model's expected goals for each side. Fair odds are 100 ÷ probability.

Model comparison

FK LiepajaSuper Nova
100%Form0%
100%Attack0%
95%Defence5%
50%Head to head50%
69%Expected goals31%
80%Overall20%

Last matches

Newest first
FK Liepaja1W 1D 0L · last 2
DFK Liepaja vs Tukums24 Oct 2026 · Virsliga0-0WFK Liepaja vs FS Jelgava18 Oct 2026 · Virsliga3-0
Super Nova0W 0D 2L · last 2
LSuper Nova vs Rīgas FS25 Oct 2026 · Virsliga0-3LRīgas FS vs Super Nova15 Oct 2026 · Virsliga4-0

Virsliga table

Virsliga table
#TeamP+/-Pts
1Rīgas FS4+1212
2BFC Daugavpils3+49
3Auda3+36
4FK Liepaja3+35
5Riga2+34
6Ogre United2-31
7Tukums3-41
8Super Nova3-71
9FS Jelgava3-50
10Grobiņa2-60
See full table ›

Season statistics

This season, all competitions we cover
StatFK LiepajaSuper Nova
Played22
Wins10
Draws10
Losses02
Goals for (avg)1.50
Goals against (avg)03.5
Clean sheets20
Failed to score12
Best win streak10

Recent goal lines

How many of each team's last 2 games went over the line

Over 1.51/22/2
Over 2.51/22/2
Over 3.50/21/2
BTTS – yes0/20/2

Match preview

FK Liepaja host Super Nova in the Virsliga (Regular Season - 35) at Daugava Stadium, Liepaja, with kick-off on Sunday, 1 November 2026 at 12:00 WAT.

Our prediction model makes FK Liepaja favourites, giving FK Liepaja a 63% chance of winning, 21% for the draw and 16% for Super Nova. Our tip is: Over 1.5.

FK Liepaja have taken 4 points from their last 2 games (1W 1D 0L). Super Nova have taken 0 points from their last 2 games (0W 0D 2L).

On the goals markets, we expect goals, with a 58% chance of over 2.5 and a 54% chance that both teams score.

Competition
Latvia Virsliga
Date
Sunday, 1 November 2026, 12:00 WAT
Venue
Daugava Stadium, Liepaja

TodaysPrediction analysis team

Model-based football predictions. How our predictions work

Quick answers

When is FK Liepaja vs Super Nova?

FK Liepaja vs Super Nova kicks off on Sunday, 1 November 2026 at 12:00 West Africa Time.

Which competition is FK Liepaja vs Super Nova in?

The match is in the Latvia Virsliga.

Where are FK Liepaja and Super Nova in the table?

FK Liepaja are 4th and Super Nova are 8th in the Virsliga.

Who will win FK Liepaja vs Super Nova?

Our prediction is Over 1.5. Win probabilities: FK Liepaja 63%, draw 21%, Super Nova 16%.

Will both teams score in FK Liepaja vs Super Nova?

We estimate a 54% chance that both teams score, so our BTTS tip is Yes.

Will there be over 2.5 goals in FK Liepaja vs Super Nova?

We estimate a 58% chance of three or more goals, so our tip is Over 2.5 goals.

Are these predictions guaranteed?

No. They are statistical estimates. A 70% tip should still lose about three times in ten, so only stake what you can afford to lose.

How often are predictions updated?

Predictions refresh automatically through the day as new data arrives, and every tip is marked right or wrong after full time.

More Virsliga on Sun 1 Nov

FTRīgas FS 3-0 GrobiņaOver 2.5 ✓FTBFC Daugavpils 2-0 Tukums1 ✓FTOgre United 0-0 RigaOver 2.5 ✗FTAuda 4-3 FS Jelgava1 ✓

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