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BFC Daugavpils vs Tukums prediction

BFC Daugavpils vs Tukums prediction for the Virsliga on 1 Nov 2026: BFC Daugavpils to win (60%). Probabilities, betting markets, form, H2H and stats.

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Sunday1November 2026
Yesterday: 52/66 correct(79%)
Virsliga · Regular Season - 35
BFC DaugavpilsTukums
2 - 0Full time · Sun 1 NovHT 1-0
Celtnieks, Daugavpils

Match events

BFC DaugavpilsTukums
  1. Yellow card: Kader abdoul traore20'
  2. Goal: Ervins pinaskinsAssist: joel yakubu29'
  3. 33'Yellow card: Kristers Volkovs

HT 1-0

  1. 46'Substitution: marcis davis valmiersOff: Shun Shibata
  2. 68'Substitution: kaspars anmanisOff: Rudolfs Melkis
  3. Goal: Daniel KiwindaAssist: Ervins pinaskins76'
  4. Substitution: joel yakubuOff: Doukumo Ayebadiepreye78'
  5. 78'Yellow card: rudolfs reingolcs
  6. 82'Substitution: Kristers VolkovsOff: martins stals

Our verdict

1 ✓

BFC Daugavpils to win

Bet365 1.48

60%

✓ This tip was correct · final score 2-0

Expected goals3.0

Win probability

1 · BFC Daugavpils60%
Fair odds 1.67
X · Draw22%
Fair odds 4.55
2 · Tukums18%
Fair odds 5.56

Match statistics

  • 53%Possession47%
  • 1.17Expected goals (xG)0.57
  • 14Total shots8
  • 5Shots on target2
  • 5Shots off target5
  • 4Blocked shots1
  • 9Shots inside the box4
  • 4Corners4
  • 4Offsides1
  • 12Fouls11
  • 1Yellow cards2
  • 0Red cards0
  • 2Goalkeeper saves3
  • 495Passes427
  • 400Accurate passes315

Line-ups

BFC Daugavpils

4-2-3-1

Starting XI

  1. 12J. BeksG
  2. 37Gļebs MihaļcovsD
  3. 5Omar GningueD
  4. 20Ceti Junior Taty TchibindaM
  5. 34Z. Ouled-Haj-M'hand
  6. 10E. IvanovsM
  7. 4W. MukwelleF
  8. 11J. YakubuM
  9. 19E. PinaskinsF
  10. 9A. TraoreF
  11. 97D. KiwindaF

Substitutes

  1. 58Vladislavs RazumejevsG
  2. 42A. Saveljevs
  3. 8R. SkrebelsM
  4. 77R. AizupsD
  5. 3D. AyebadiepreyeF
  6. 66K. BujanovsD
  7. 33D. CucursD
  8. 27M. KopilovsF
  9. 85nikita ogijenkoM

Coach: K. Kurbatovs

Tukums

5-3-2

Starting XI

  1. 1S. VilkovsG
  2. 21D. ValmiersD
  3. 6K. VolkovsM
  4. 5J. TobaM
  5. 8R. ReingolcsD
  6. 16Kristaps KlavinsM
  7. 29K. ShigemaM
  8. 4K. AnmanisM
  9. 10B. SamoilovsM
  10. 19D. RadzenieksF
  11. 27R. DeružinskisF

Substitutes

  1. 7S. ShibataM
  2. 28R. MeļķisD
  3. 12A. KuprinsG
  4. 25H. JokstsM
  5. 18D. CalbergsD
  6. 88M. ŠtālsD
  7. 30M. ŠustsD

Coach: K. Dišlers

Betting markets

Expected goals 2.02 – 1.01
0.5 goalsOver95.2%Under4.8%
1.5 goalsOver80.5%Under19.5%
2.5 goalsOver58.3%Under41.7%
3.5 goalsOver35.9%Under64.1%
4.5 goalsOver19.0%Under81.0%

Market percentages come from our model's expected goals for each side. Fair odds are 100 ÷ probability.

Model comparison

BFC DaugavpilsTukums
86%Form14%
100%Attack0%
67%Defence33%
50%Head to head50%
67%Expected goals33%
77%Overall23%

Last matches

Newest first
BFC Daugavpils2W 0D 0L · last 2
WFS Jelgava vs BFC Daugavpils25 Oct 2026 · Virsliga0-1WBFC Daugavpils vs Auda19 Oct 2026 · Virsliga2-1
Tukums0W 1D 1L · last 2
DFK Liepaja vs Tukums24 Oct 2026 · Virsliga0-0LRīgas FS vs Tukums19 Oct 2026 · Virsliga2-0

Virsliga table

Virsliga table
#TeamP+/-Pts
1Rīgas FS4+1212
2BFC Daugavpils3+49
3Auda3+36
4FK Liepaja3+35
5Riga2+34
6Ogre United2-31
7Tukums3-41
8Super Nova3-71
9FS Jelgava3-50
10Grobiņa2-60
See full table ›

Season statistics

This season, all competitions we cover
StatBFC DaugavpilsTukums
Played22
Wins20
Draws01
Losses01
Goals for (avg)1.50
Goals against (avg)0.51
Clean sheets11
Failed to score02
Best win streak20

Recent goal lines

How many of each team's last 2 games went over the line

Over 1.51/21/2
Over 2.51/20/2
Over 3.50/20/2
BTTS – yes1/20/2

Match preview

BFC Daugavpils host Tukums in the Virsliga (Regular Season - 35) at Celtnieks, Daugavpils, with kick-off on Sunday, 1 November 2026 at 12:00 WAT.

Our prediction model makes BFC Daugavpils favourites, giving BFC Daugavpils a 60% chance of winning, 22% for the draw and 18% for Tukums. Our tip is: BFC Daugavpils to win.

BFC Daugavpils have taken 6 points from their last 2 games (2W 0D 0L). Tukums have taken 1 points from their last 2 games (0W 1D 1L).

On the goals markets, we expect goals, with a 58% chance of over 2.5 and a 56% chance that both teams score.

Competition
Latvia Virsliga
Date
Sunday, 1 November 2026, 12:00 WAT
Venue
Celtnieks, Daugavpils

TodaysPrediction analysis team

Model-based football predictions. How our predictions work

Quick answers

When is BFC Daugavpils vs Tukums?

BFC Daugavpils vs Tukums kicks off on Sunday, 1 November 2026 at 12:00 West Africa Time.

Which competition is BFC Daugavpils vs Tukums in?

The match is in the Latvia Virsliga.

Where are BFC Daugavpils and Tukums in the table?

BFC Daugavpils are 2nd and Tukums are 7th in the Virsliga.

Who will win BFC Daugavpils vs Tukums?

Our prediction is BFC Daugavpils to win. Win probabilities: BFC Daugavpils 60%, draw 22%, Tukums 18%.

Will both teams score in BFC Daugavpils vs Tukums?

We estimate a 56% chance that both teams score, so our BTTS tip is Yes.

Will there be over 2.5 goals in BFC Daugavpils vs Tukums?

We estimate a 58% chance of three or more goals, so our tip is Over 2.5 goals.

Are these predictions guaranteed?

No. They are statistical estimates. A 70% tip should still lose about three times in ten, so only stake what you can afford to lose.

How often are predictions updated?

Predictions refresh automatically through the day as new data arrives, and every tip is marked right or wrong after full time.

More Virsliga on Sun 1 Nov

FTRīgas FS 3-0 GrobiņaOver 2.5 ✓FTOgre United 0-0 RigaOver 2.5 ✗FTAuda 4-3 FS Jelgava1 ✓FTFK Liepaja 3-3 Super NovaOver 1.5 ✓

All football predictions for today