Serie A · Regular Season - 9
Match events
Atalanta- 4'Substitution: Thomas KristensenOff: Giorgio Scalvini
- 12'Yellow card: Elif ElmasFoul
- Yellow card: VieryFoul30'
- 41'Goal: Charles De KetelaereAssist: Nicola Zalewski
- Substitution: Nicolo FagioliOff: Christ Inao Oulaï45'
HT 0-1
- Yellow card: Mateo PellegrinoHandball51'
- Goal: Alieu NjieAssist: Álex Jiménez53'
- 57'Substitution: Gianluca GaetanoOff: Mario Pašalić
- 58'Substitution: Elif ElmasOff: Jonathan Rowe
- Goal: João MárioAssist: Alieu Njie61'
- Substitution: Alieu NjieOff: Wilfried Gnonto69'
- 74'Goal: Nicola ZalewskiAssist: Charles De Ketelaere
- Yellow card: Wilfried GnontoFoul75'
- 83'Yellow card: Relja ObricFoul
- 84'Substitution: Nicola ZalewskiOff: Kamal Deen Sulemana
- Substitution: BetoOff: Mateo Pellegrino90+1'
- Substitution: Pedro GoncalvesOff: Franco Mastantuono90+1'
Our verdict
Fiorentina or draw
Bet365 1.36
✓ This tip was correct · final score 2-2
Win probability
Match statistics
- 60%Possession40%
- 1.60Expected goals (xG)1.16
- 26Total shots10
- 4Shots on target5
- 14Shots off target2
- 8Blocked shots3
- 12Shots inside the box8
- 8Corners2
- 0Offsides1
- 10Fouls13
- 3Yellow cards2
- 0Red cards0
- 3Goalkeeper saves2
- 467Passes480
- 406Accurate passes409
Line-ups
Fiorentina
4-3-3Starting XI
- 43David de GeaG
- 20Álex JiménezD
- 3R. DrăgușinD
- 33VieryD
- 17João MárioD
- 27C. NdourM
- 44N. FagioliM
- 4M. BrescianiniM
- 30Franco MastantuonoF
- 32Mateo PellegrinoF
- 25A. NjieF
Substitutes
- 53O. ChristensenG
- 2DodôD
- 29W. GnontoF
- 23BetoF
- 21ValdeD
- 73Antonio PirròM
- 28PoteM
- 72B. MazzeoF
- 19L. LezzeriniG
- 42C. Inao OulaïM
- 75D. BeldentiD
Coach: P. Vanoli
Atalanta
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 29M. CarnesecchiG
- 77D. ZappacostaD
- 31T. KristensenD
- 40R. ObriÄD
- 47L. BernasconiD
- 70G. GaetanoM
- 13ÉdersonM
- 99E. ElmasM
- 17C. De KetelaereM
- 59N. ZalewskiM
- 90N. KrstovićF
Substitutes
- 11J. RoweF
- 7K. SulemanaF
- 57M. SportielloG
- 51M. SonzogniG
- 42G. ScalviniD
- 10L. SamardžićM
- 53M. PlaiaD
- 8Mario PasalicM
- 41J. IdeleM
Coach: M. Sarri
Betting markets
Expected goals 1.61 – 1.42Half time / full time result. 1 = Fiorentina, X = draw, 2 = Atalanta.
Asian handicap applied to Fiorentina.
Market percentages come from our model's expected goals for each side. Fair odds are 100 ÷ probability.
Model comparison
Last matches
Newest firstFiorentina0W 0D 2L · last 2Atalanta1W 1D 2L · last 4Serie A table
| # | Team | P | +/- | Pts | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lazio | 10 | 9 | 1 | 0 | +16 | 28 | WWWWW |
| 2 | Inter | 10 | 8 | 1 | 1 | +13 | 25 | LWWWW |
| 3 | AS Roma | 10 | 7 | 3 | 0 | +18 | 24 | WWDWD |
| 4 | Como | 10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | +10 | 23 | WWWWD |
| 5 | AC Milan | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | +9 | 21 | WLWWD |
| 6 | Frosinone | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | +10 | 20 | WWDWL |
| 7 | Juventus | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | +3 | 17 | WLWLD |
| 8 | Napoli | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | +4 | 14 | LWDLW |
| 9 | Bologna | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | +1 | 14 | WWWLW |
| 10 | Torino | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | -2 | 13 | LLWWW |
| 11 | Genoa | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | -4 | 13 | WWWLW |
| 12 | Cagliari | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | -6 | 13 | LLLLD |
| 13 | Atalanta | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -1 | 11 | DDLWL |
| 14 | Lecce | 10 | 3 | 0 | 7 | -10 | 9 | LLLWL |
| 15 | Sassuolo | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -8 | 8 | LLLDL |
| 16 | Monza | 10 | 2 | 1 | 7 | -7 | 7 | LLLWL |
| 17 | Fiorentina | 9 | 1 | 2 | 6 | -10 | 5 | DLLLD |
| 18 | Parma | 9 | 1 | 2 | 6 | -10 | 5 | DLLLW |
| 19 | Udinese | 10 | 1 | 2 | 7 | -12 | 5 | LDLLL |
| 20 | Venezia | 10 | 1 | 0 | 9 | -14 | 3 | LLLWL |
Top scorers
| # | Player | M | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Gustavo VarelaMonza | 9 | 9 |
| 2 |  D. MalenAS Roma | 9 | 8 |
| 3 |  A. RaimondoFrosinone | 9 | 8 |
| 4 |  N. KrstovićAtalanta | 9 | 6 |
| 5 |  A. RabiotAC Milan | 8 | 5 |
Season statistics
This season, all competitions we cover| Stat | Fiorentina | Atalanta |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 2 | 4 |
| Wins | 0 | 1 |
| Draws | 0 | 1 |
| Losses | 2 | 2 |
| Goals for (avg) | 1 | 2.3 |
| Goals against (avg) | 2.5 | 2.5 |
| Clean sheets | 0 | 0 |
| Failed to score | 0 | 1 |
| Best win streak | 0 | 1 |
Recent goal lines
How many of each team's last 4 games went over the line
| Over 1.5 | 2/2 | 4/4 |
|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 | 2/2 | 3/4 |
| Over 3.5 | 1/2 | 3/4 |
| BTTS – yes | 2/2 | 3/4 |
Match preview
Fiorentina host Atalanta in the Serie A (Regular Season - 9) at Stadio Artemio Franchi, Florence, with kick-off on Thursday, 29 October 2026 at 20:45 WAT.
Our prediction model makes Fiorentina slight favourites, giving Fiorentina a 42% chance of winning, 25% for the draw and 33% for Atalanta. Our tip is: Fiorentina or draw.
Fiorentina have taken 0 points from their last 2 games (0W 0D 2L). Atalanta have taken 4 points from their last 4 games (1W 1D 2L).
On the goals markets, we expect goals, with a 59% chance of over 2.5 and a 61% chance that both teams score.
- Competition
- Italy Serie A
- Date
- Thursday, 29 October 2026, 20:45 WAT
- Venue
- Stadio Artemio Franchi, Florence
TodaysPrediction analysis team
Model-based football predictions. How our predictions work
Quick answers
When is Fiorentina vs Atalanta?
Fiorentina vs Atalanta kicks off on Thursday, 29 October 2026 at 20:45 West Africa Time.
Which competition is Fiorentina vs Atalanta in?
The match is in the Italy Serie A.
Where are Fiorentina and Atalanta in the table?
Fiorentina are 17th and Atalanta are 13th in the Serie A.
Who will win Fiorentina vs Atalanta?
Our prediction is Fiorentina or draw. Win probabilities: Fiorentina 42%, draw 25%, Atalanta 33%.
Will both teams score in Fiorentina vs Atalanta?
We estimate a 61% chance that both teams score, so our BTTS tip is Yes.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Fiorentina vs Atalanta?
We estimate a 59% chance of three or more goals, so our tip is Over 2.5 goals.
Are these predictions guaranteed?
No. They are statistical estimates. A 70% tip should still lose about three times in ten, so only stake what you can afford to lose.
How often are predictions updated?
Predictions refresh automatically through the day as new data arrives, and every tip is marked right or wrong after full time.