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Atalanta vs Frosinone prediction

Atalanta vs Frosinone prediction for the Serie A on 25 Oct 2026: Atalanta or draw (76%). Probabilities, betting markets, form, H2H and stats.

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Sunday25October 2026
Yesterday: 28/42 correct(67%)
Serie A · Regular Season - 8
AtalantaFrosinone
4 - 4Full time · Sun 25 OctHT 3-2
New Balance Arena, Bergamo

Match events

AtalantaFrosinone
  1. 1'Goal: Romano Schmid
  2. 7'Yellow card: Gabriele BracagliaFoul
  3. Goal: Nikola KrstovićAssist: Charles De Ketelaere14'
  4. 17'Goal: Romano SchmidAssist: Farès Ghedjemis
  5. 28'Yellow card: Giorgi KvernadzeFoul
  6. Substitution: Raoul BellanovaOff: Lorenzo Bernasconi29'
  7. VAR: Charles De KetelaerePenalty confirmedVAR29'
  8. Penalty goal: Éderson José dos Santos (pen)33'
  9. Goal: Nikola KrstovićAssist: Davide Zappacosta45'
  10. 45'Substitution: Gabriele BracagliaOff: Aleksa Terzić

HT 3-2

  1. 48'Goal: Giacomo CalòAssist: Farès Ghedjemis
  2. Goal: Elif ElmasAssist: Nikola Krstović50'
  3. Substitution: Jonathan RoweOff: Nicola Zalewski62'
  4. Substitution: Gianluca GaetanoOff: Mario Pašalić62'
  5. 65'Substitution: Giorgi KvernadzeOff: Alessio Zerbin
  6. 65'Substitution: Patrizio MasiniOff: Matteo Cichella
  7. Yellow card: Éderson José dos SantosFoul69'
  8. 75'Substitution: Giorgio CittadiniOff: Ilario Monterisi
  9. Substitution: Nikola KrstovićOff: Gianluca Scamacca77'
  10. Substitution: Charles De KetelaereOff: Lazar Samardzic77'
  11. 82'Goal: Aleksa TerzićAssist: Farès Ghedjemis
  12. 85'Yellow card: Aleksa TerzićDissent
  13. 89'Substitution: Anthony OyonoOff: Enzo Tchato
  14. 90+2'Yellow card: Antonio RaimondoDissent

Our verdict

1X ✓

Atalanta or draw

Bet365 1.20

76%

✓ This tip was correct · final score 4-4

Expected goals3.3

Win probability

1 · Atalanta53%
Fair odds 1.89
X · Draw23%
Fair odds 4.35
2 · Frosinone24%
Fair odds 4.17

Match statistics

  • 46%Possession54%
  • 3.89Expected goals (xG)1.73
  • 22Total shots24
  • 9Shots on target10
  • 6Shots off target6
  • 7Blocked shots8
  • 19Shots inside the box15
  • 8Corners9
  • 2Offsides2
  • 7Fouls13
  • 1Yellow cards4
  • 0Red cards0
  • 6Goalkeeper saves3
  • 321Passes369
  • 229Accurate passes277

Line-ups

Atalanta

4-2-3-1

Starting XI

  1. 29M. CarnesecchiG
  2. 16R. BellanovaD
  3. 31T. KristensenD
  4. 40R. ObrićD
  5. 77D. ZappacostaD
  6. 13ÉdersonM
  7. 70G. GaetanoM
  8. 99E. ElmasM
  9. 17C. De KetelaereM
  10. 11J. RoweM
  11. 90N. KrstovićF

Substitutes

  1. 53M. PlaiaD
  2. 59N. ZalewskiM
  3. 57M. SportielloG
  4. 51M. SonzogniG
  5. 9G. ScamaccaF
  6. 10L. SamardžićM
  7. 8Mario PasalicM
  8. 41J. IdeleM
  9. 47L. BernasconiD

Coach: M. Sarri

Frosinone

4-2-3-1

Starting XI

  1. 22L. PalmisaniG
  2. 20A. OyonoD
  3. 2G. CittadiniD
  4. 3G. CalvaniD
  5. 79G. BracagliaD
  6. 14G. CalòM
  7. 73P. MasiniM
  8. 7F. GhedjemisM
  9. 10R. SchmidM
  10. 17G. KvernadzeM
  11. 9A. RaimondoF

Substitutes

  1. 5W. AmeyD
  2. 89T. BobčekF
  3. 11D. BîrligeaF
  4. 16Matteo CichellaM
  5. 91S. DesplanchesG
  6. 34A. El AzzouziM
  7. 74Omar FayedD
  8. 40S. FiniF
  9. 70L. HasaM
  10. 30I. MonterisiD
  11. 12M. PisseriG
  12. 90E. TchatoD
  13. 71A. TerzićD
  14. 25K. AkpogumaD
  15. 24A. ZerbinF

Coach: M. Alvini

Betting markets

Expected goals 2.01 – 1.32
0.5 goalsOver96.4%Under3.6%
1.5 goalsOver84.5%Under15.5%
2.5 goalsOver64.7%Under35.3%
3.5 goalsOver42.6%Under57.4%
4.5 goalsOver24.3%Under75.7%

Market percentages come from our model's expected goals for each side. Fair odds are 100 ÷ probability.

Model comparison

AtalantaFrosinone
50%Form50%
30%Attack70%
50%Defence50%
50%Head to head50%
60%Expected goals40%
69%Overall31%

Last matches

Newest first
Atalanta1W 0D 2L · last 3
LAjax vs Atalanta22 Oct 2026 · Conference League2-0LAC Milan vs Atalanta18 Oct 2026 · Serie A3-2WAtalanta vs Pafos15 Oct 2026 · Conference League3-1
Frosinone1W 0D 0L · last 1
WFrosinone vs Sassuolo16 Oct 2026 · Serie A4-2

Serie A table

Serie A table
#TeamP+/-Pts
1Inter9+1525
2Lazio9+1525
3AS Roma9+1521
4Como9+920
5AC Milan9+718
6Frosinone9+817
7Napoli9+614
8Juventus9+114
9Torino9013
10Cagliari9-513
11Bologna9011
12Atalanta9-111
13Genoa9-510
14Lecce9-99
15Sassuolo9-88
16Monza9-67
17Udinese9-95
18Fiorentina9-105
19Parma9-105
20Venezia9-133
See full table ›

Top scorers

Serie A top scorers
#PlayerMGoals
1A. RaimondoFrosinone98
2Gustavo VarelaMonza88
3D. MalenAS Roma87
4N. KrstovićAtalanta96
5M. ThuramInter85

Season statistics

This season, all competitions we cover
StatAtalantaFrosinone
Played31
Wins11
Draws00
Losses20
Goals for (avg)1.74
Goals against (avg)22
Clean sheets00
Failed to score10
Best win streak11

Recent goal lines

How many of each team's last 3 games went over the line

Over 1.53/31/1
Over 2.52/31/1
Over 3.52/31/1
BTTS – yes2/31/1

Match preview

Atalanta host Frosinone in the Serie A (Regular Season - 8) at New Balance Arena, Bergamo, with kick-off on Sunday, 25 October 2026 at 15:00 WAT.

Our prediction model makes Atalanta favourites, giving Atalanta a 53% chance of winning, 23% for the draw and 24% for Frosinone. Our tip is: Atalanta or draw.

Atalanta have taken 3 points from their last 3 games (1W 0D 2L). Frosinone have taken 3 points from their last 1 games (1W 0D 0L).

On the goals markets, we expect goals, with a 65% chance of over 2.5 and a 64% chance that both teams score.

Competition
Italy Serie A
Date
Sunday, 25 October 2026, 15:00 WAT
Venue
New Balance Arena, Bergamo

TodaysPrediction analysis team

Model-based football predictions. How our predictions work

Quick answers

When is Atalanta vs Frosinone?

Atalanta vs Frosinone kicks off on Sunday, 25 October 2026 at 15:00 West Africa Time.

Which competition is Atalanta vs Frosinone in?

The match is in the Italy Serie A.

Where are Atalanta and Frosinone in the table?

Atalanta are 12th and Frosinone are 6th in the Serie A.

Who will win Atalanta vs Frosinone?

Our prediction is Atalanta or draw. Win probabilities: Atalanta 53%, draw 23%, Frosinone 24%.

Will both teams score in Atalanta vs Frosinone?

We estimate a 64% chance that both teams score, so our BTTS tip is Yes.

Will there be over 2.5 goals in Atalanta vs Frosinone?

We estimate a 65% chance of three or more goals, so our tip is Over 2.5 goals.

Are these predictions guaranteed?

No. They are statistical estimates. A 70% tip should still lose about three times in ten, so only stake what you can afford to lose.

How often are predictions updated?

Predictions refresh automatically through the day as new data arrives, and every tip is marked right or wrong after full time.

More Serie A on Sun 25 Oct

FTInter 2-1 Fiorentina1 ✓FTGenoa 1-0 Venezia1X ✓FTLecce 0-2 Juventus2 ✓

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