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Frosinone vs Lecce prediction

Frosinone vs Lecce prediction for the Serie A on 29 Oct 2026: Frosinone to win (57%). Probabilities, betting markets, form, H2H and stats.

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Thursday29October 2026
Yesterday: 52/66 correct(79%)
Serie A · Regular Season - 9
FrosinoneLecce
5 - 1Full time · Thu 29 OctHT 2-0
PSC Arena, Frosinone

Match events

FrosinoneLecce
  1. Goal: Matteo CichellaAssist: Farès Ghedjemis25'
  2. 38'Yellow card: Tiago GabrielFoul
  3. 45'Substitution: Corrie NdabaOff: Amar Fatah
  4. Penalty goal: Giacomo Calò (pen)45+1'

HT 2-0

  1. 51'Yellow card: Oumar NgomFoul
  2. 57'Substitution: Nikola StulicOff: Paco Esteban
  3. 57'Substitution: Youssef MalehOff: Olaf Gorter
  4. 58'Substitution: Omri GandelmanOff: Konan N'Dri
  5. Goal: Antonio RaimondoAssist: Giorgi Kvernadze59'
  6. Substitution: Antonio RaimondoOff: Daniel Birligea70'
  7. Substitution: Farès GhedjemisOff: Seydou Fini70'
  8. Goal: Daniel BirligeaAssist: Romano Schmid72'
  9. VAR: Daniel BirligeaGoal confirmedVAR72'
  10. Substitution: Giacomo CalòOff: Anouar El Azzouzi77'
  11. Substitution: Romano SchmidOff: Luis Hasa77'
  12. 79'Yellow card: Jamil SiebertHandball
  13. Substitution: Gabriele CalvaniOff: Omar Fayed Abdelwahab El Rakhawy80'
  14. 82'Goal: Joel Almada MonteiroAssist: Olaf Gorter
  15. 83'Substitution: Joel Almada MonteiroOff: Mohamed Kaba
  16. Goal: Daniel BirligeaAssist: Giorgi Kvernadze90+4'

Our verdict

1 ✓

Frosinone to win

Bet365 1.67

57%

✓ This tip was correct · final score 5-1

Expected goals3.3

Win probability

1 · Frosinone57%
Fair odds 1.75
X · Draw21%
Fair odds 4.76
2 · Lecce22%
Fair odds 4.55

Match statistics

  • 60%Possession40%
  • 2.96Expected goals (xG)1.30
  • 26Total shots15
  • 9Shots on target6
  • 9Shots off target6
  • 8Blocked shots3
  • 17Shots inside the box9
  • 10Corners3
  • 4Offsides0
  • 10Fouls17
  • 0Yellow cards3
  • 0Red cards0
  • 5Goalkeeper saves4
  • 362Passes246
  • 257Accurate passes144

Line-ups

Frosinone

4-2-3-1

Starting XI

  1. 22L. PalmisaniG
  2. 20A. OyonoD
  3. 3G. CalvaniD
  4. 30I. MonterisiD
  5. 71A. TerzićD
  6. 14G. CalòM
  7. 16Matteo CichellaM
  8. 7F. GhedjemisM
  9. 10R. SchmidM
  10. 17G. KvernadzeM
  11. 9A. RaimondoF

Substitutes

  1. 90E. TchatoD
  2. 24A. ZerbinF
  3. 5W. AmeyD
  4. 25K. AkpogumaD
  5. 11D. BîrligeaF
  6. 89T. BobčekF
  7. 79G. BracagliaD
  8. 2G. CittadiniD
  9. 91S. DesplanchesG
  10. 34A. El AzzouziM
  11. 74Omar FayedD
  12. 40S. FiniF
  13. 70L. HasaM
  14. 73P. MasiniM
  15. 12M. PisseriG

Coach: M. Alvini

Lecce

3-4-2-1

Starting XI

  1. 30W. FalconeG
  2. 5J. SiebertD
  3. 44Tiago GabrielD
  4. 3C. NdabaD
  5. 17Danilo VeigaM
  6. 14Y. MalehM
  7. 79O. NgomM
  8. 25A. GalloM
  9. 16O. GandelmanM
  10. 99Joël MonteiroM
  11. 22Paco EstebanF

Substitutes

  1. 31E. ScottD
  2. 11K. N’DriF
  3. 77M. KabaM
  4. 18G. JeanD
  5. 28Olaf GorterM
  6. 8S. FofanaM
  7. 7A. Ahmed FatahF
  8. 2A. DembéléD
  9. 32A. BorbeiG
  10. 1M. BleveG
  11. 9N. ŠtulićF

Coach: E. Di Francesco

Betting markets

Expected goals 2.08 – 1.22
0.5 goalsOver96.3%Under3.7%
1.5 goalsOver84.1%Under15.9%
2.5 goalsOver64.1%Under35.9%
3.5 goalsOver42.0%Under58.0%
4.5 goalsOver23.7%Under76.3%

Market percentages come from our model's expected goals for each side. Fair odds are 100 ÷ probability.

Model comparison

FrosinoneLecce
57%Form43%
73%Attack27%
25%Defence75%
50%Head to head50%
63%Expected goals37%
72%Overall28%

Last matches

Newest first
Frosinone1W 1D 0L · last 2
DAtalanta vs Frosinone25 Oct 2026 · Serie A4-4WFrosinone vs Sassuolo16 Oct 2026 · Serie A4-2
Lecce1W 0D 1L · last 2
LLecce vs Juventus25 Oct 2026 · Serie A0-2WUdinese vs Lecce18 Oct 2026 · Serie A0-3

Serie A table

Serie A table
#TeamP+/-Pts
1Lazio10+1628
2Inter10+1325
3AS Roma10+1824
4Como10+1023
5AC Milan10+921
6Frosinone10+1020
7Juventus10+317
8Napoli10+414
9Bologna10+114
10Torino10-213
11Genoa10-413
12Cagliari10-613
13Atalanta9-111
14Lecce10-109
15Sassuolo9-88
16Monza10-77
17Fiorentina9-105
18Parma9-105
19Udinese10-125
20Venezia10-143
See full table ›

Top scorers

Serie A top scorers
#PlayerMGoals
1Gustavo VarelaMonza99
2D. MalenAS Roma98
3A. RaimondoFrosinone108
4N. KrstovićAtalanta96
5A. RabiotAC Milan85

Season statistics

This season, all competitions we cover
StatFrosinoneLecce
Played22
Wins11
Draws10
Losses01
Goals for (avg)41.5
Goals against (avg)31
Clean sheets01
Failed to score01
Best win streak11

Recent goal lines

How many of each team's last 2 games went over the line

Over 1.52/22/2
Over 2.52/21/2
Over 3.52/20/2
BTTS – yes2/20/2

Match preview

Frosinone host Lecce in the Serie A (Regular Season - 9) at PSC Arena, Frosinone, with kick-off on Thursday, 29 October 2026 at 18:30 WAT.

Our prediction model makes Frosinone favourites, giving Frosinone a 57% chance of winning, 21% for the draw and 22% for Lecce. Our tip is: Frosinone to win.

Frosinone have taken 4 points from their last 2 games (1W 1D 0L). Lecce have taken 3 points from their last 2 games (1W 0D 1L).

On the goals markets, we expect goals, with a 64% chance of over 2.5 and a 62% chance that both teams score.

Competition
Italy Serie A
Date
Thursday, 29 October 2026, 18:30 WAT
Venue
PSC Arena, Frosinone

TodaysPrediction analysis team

Model-based football predictions. How our predictions work

Quick answers

When is Frosinone vs Lecce?

Frosinone vs Lecce kicks off on Thursday, 29 October 2026 at 18:30 West Africa Time.

Which competition is Frosinone vs Lecce in?

The match is in the Italy Serie A.

Where are Frosinone and Lecce in the table?

Frosinone are 6th and Lecce are 14th in the Serie A.

Who will win Frosinone vs Lecce?

Our prediction is Frosinone to win. Win probabilities: Frosinone 57%, draw 21%, Lecce 22%.

Will both teams score in Frosinone vs Lecce?

We estimate a 62% chance that both teams score, so our BTTS tip is Yes.

Will there be over 2.5 goals in Frosinone vs Lecce?

We estimate a 64% chance of three or more goals, so our tip is Over 2.5 goals.

Are these predictions guaranteed?

No. They are statistical estimates. A 70% tip should still lose about three times in ten, so only stake what you can afford to lose.

How often are predictions updated?

Predictions refresh automatically through the day as new data arrives, and every tip is marked right or wrong after full time.

More Serie A on Thu 29 Oct

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